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RPI or Let's Trade Ichiro for Bobby Kielty

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  • #16
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...01&position=OF

    Go to the last table.

    Ichiro has +3.9 clutch wins since 2002. He's been clutch every year.

    You can go through his play-by-play every year, which includes LI:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statsp.aspx...ion=OF&season=
    Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

    Comment


    • #17
      That's what I thought, Tom. I don't believe the +3.9 figure EXACTLY...their clutchiness numbers are based on calculations that I'm not sold on...but the general trend is clear. Ichiro is indeed a clutch hitter in the sense that everyone believes Ortiz is...and the impact is potentially quite large (larger than the impact of his infield singles by a substantial amount).

      Going with the +3.9 for a second...that's roughly 35 runs in 6 years...about 6 a year...which is minimally the same magnitude as the negative impact of his infield singles. Just FWIW

      Comment


      • #18
        Okay but Ichiro's has about two thirds of his hits with the bases empty then throw in the fact that he is a lead off hitter and you got a guy that has his run value over stated by linear weights. At best his stolen bases get him back to normal run values but that is about it.

        With men on Ichiro has practically identical batting averages and a lower SLG then with bases empty. What he does have is a higher OBP and that is because of the IBB. This year is different but why is this year a meaningful indicator to his skill while his other 6 years of play are not? Leading up to this year how in the world could anybody say Ichiro's ability to hit with runners on was a skill? The guy I think hit worse overall in 4 of his 6 years with runners on leading up to this year.

        Comment


        • #19
          BTW...that makes me wonder if the Mariners would be a better hitting team if they had a high OBP hitter leading off IN FRONT OF Ichiro and then had Ichiro second...and I say that because it would give him more ABs with RISP.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
            Okay but Ichiro's has about two thirds of his hits with the bases empty then throw in the fact that he is a lead off hitter and you got a guy that has his run value over stated by linear weights. At best his stolen bases get him back to normal run values but that is about it.

            With men on Ichiro has practically identical batting averages and a lower SLG then with bases empty. What he does have is a higher OBP and that is because of the IBB. This year is different but why is this year a meaningful indicator to his skill while his other 6 years of play are not? Leading up to this year how in the world could anybody say Ichiro's ability to hit with runners on was a skill? The guy I think hit worse overall in 4 of his 6 years with runners on leading up to this year.
            How do you respond to the clutch figures Ubi? Because your post seems to completely ignore them.

            Comment


            • #21
              What like RISP? Which has Ichiro identical in SLG, the higher OBP because of IBB and the higher batting average?

              Or are we talking 2 out and RISP? So if that proves a skill then what about 2002 and last year? So 60 at bats a year spread out over a full season with wildly varying results means skill?

              So how does Ichiro compare to other players. Manny looks great this year in that stat does that mean Manny has skill in the clutch?

              As for clutch in terms of the clutch stat on fan graphs it shows Ichiro to be at around .6 every year consistent sure but does that mean he has a clutch skill? Does WPA-((.25*(1.7*OBP+SLG-1)*PA)*(average leverage index per plate apperance) really define clutch?

              Comment


              • #22
                I guess I'm trying to figure out your view on how Ichiro was better in tight situations hence clutch. Which to me means that when Ichiro faces the toughest competition the other team has to offer he plays better then when he faces the average or worse that the opposing team has to offer, and that this isn't random chance but an actual skill of Ichiro's.

                So Ichiro is better if he plays against Billy Wagner in the 9th with 2 outs a man on second and losing by one then say facing Sturtze in the 6 with no outs and no one on? I dunno that just doesn't seem logical to me.

                Comment


                • #23
                  I was talking about the fangraphs data...which favors players who hit well in high leverage (clutch) situations.

                  If you want to define clutch as performance above the expectation against the toughest competition, then yes, Ichiro is clutch in that regard as well...he hits better than the odds ratio suggests he should against great pitching than he does against poor pitching (IOW...if you look at his line against the Wagners and Riveras and Pedros etc he faces...it will look superficially worse, but when you factor in their skill relative to the league, you will find that Ichiro hits good pitching better than he should for his own batting skill). Which BTW is also a point of confusion regarding his line with RISP. It looks similar BA wise but a larger percentage of his ABs with RISP will come against better relief pitchers than the percentage he gets against good pitching with the bases empty (higher leverage base/out states force managers to use their best relievers against Ichiro more often).

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    The clutch definition is:
                    sum(WPA minus WPA/LI)

                    So, each play is given a WPA and an LI, and the WPA/LI gives you Linear Weights by Game State, but without the inflated impact of LI.

                    (For example, with bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, tied game, a hit, walk, and HR are all identical in value, and the LWTS by Game State gives each of the events an effective value of 2 times the value of the out, as opposed to 1.1 for the walk in a random state, 1.6 for the single, and 4.8 for the HR.)
                    Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      So Tom...let me try to understand what "clutch" does...

                      Say Ichiro is up with the bases loaded and two outs and the Mariners trailing by one run. In that situation, the Mariners have roughly a 40% chance of winning the game and the leverage index is roughly 7. He singles, adding 0.6 wins (ending the game with a win). The clutch stat would be 0.6 - 0.09 (roughly) for that one play...what does that number mean?

                      The way I would go about rating clutch performance would be to subtract from the WPA the expected WPA for that batter in that situation (Ichiro is 30% singles, 10% walks, 30% groundouts, 15% flyouts, 10% Ks and 5% XBH roughly...figure out what Ichiro's batting line would translate to in terms of win probability you expect him to add with the bases loaded and two outs and the Mariners down by one in the 9th) which strikes me as very different than what fangraphs did.
                      Last edited by SABR Matt; 09-18-2007, 09:35 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        If we stick with the simpler "walk or hit wins, out sends to extra innings" situation:

                        - assuming a league average OBP of .333 (my definition, including all events), the expected winning probability is easy enough to calculate (1/3 wins the game, and 2/3 sends to extra innings with a 50% chance to win) as .667.

                        - the LI is equally easy to calculate (.333 gain in wins happens 1/3 of the time, and .167 wins downward happens 2/3 of the time, for an average absolute movement in some direction of .2222, compared to the random of .0346, or an LI of .2222/.0346 = 6.4)

                        ***

                        Now, say you have an Ichiro-type, where his OBP, overall, is .400. In this case, when Ichiro is at the plate, the Mariners will have a 70% chance of winning, if he does his Ichiro thing. (40% wins the game, and 60% sends it to extra innings where they have 50% chance of winning.) However, suppose in clutch situations, Ichiro has an OBP of .460. That means, the Mariners will win .730 with Ichiro as a clutch hitter, as opposed with .700 with Ichiro as his usual self. So, he adds +.030 wins with his clutch play, per PA (in this situation), over and above his own great self. This is the method you are describing.

                        Let's look at the other way. His WPA/LI would be (.730-.667)/6.4= .012. His WPA is .730-.667= .063.

                        That leaves his WPA minus WPA/LI as +.051 wins.

                        Is one way better than the other?

                        ***

                        Let's consider another example. Let's assume that Ichiro hits .400 regardless of situation, in a league that hits .333. In this case, your method would say that Ichiro has no clutch skill at all. The other method would do the following:
                        WPA/LI = (.700-.667)/6.4= .005. His WPA is .700-.667=.033. This leaves him with WPA minus WPA/LI of +.028 clutch wins.

                        But also note that in low leverage situations, he'll end up with a minus. For example, if the LI was 0.2, and the then his WPA/LI for some blowout situation would be something like (.110-.109)/.2= .005, and his WPA would be a tiny change (.110-.109=.001), giving him a WPA minus WPA/LI of -.004 wins.

                        In this simplified example, if you had 87% of the games with an LI of .2, and 13% with an LI of 6.4 (overall LI of 1.0), then Ichiro's clutch would be:
                        +.028 * 13%
                        -.004 * 87%
                        = .000 (rounding error)

                        As you can see, this method, and your method, both agree that Ichiro, overall, gets a clutch rating of 0.

                        And, WPA minus WPA/LI is superfast to calculate, and doesn't require prior knowledge of the hitter's overall stats and how that translates for each game state! Cool, right?

                        ***

                        As for what does WPA/LI represent, it's his win impact, with the game situation unleveraged. For example, a hitter with an OBP of .400, in a league of .333 is worth about +.055 runs per PA, or roughly +.005 wins per PA, in a random situation, compared to the average hitter. In the game-ending situation in question, his WPA was +.033 and the LI was 6.4, making his WPA/LI as +.005 wins. So, what WPA/LI does is two fold:
                        1. It rebalances the walks, hits, HR relative to the out, based on how each of those events will impact the win probability
                        2. It deflates the leverage aspect

                        This metric (WPA/LI) is especially ideal for players like Ichiro, who can rebalance their game to take advantage of the new balance required for a game state (sometimes avoiding a K is necessary, sometimes getting a walk isn't all that important, etc).
                        Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I am just bothered by the lack of a direct link in the WPA/LI method between the batter and his own performance. The clutch metric at fangraphs will rate good hitters are more clutchy than bad hitters because good hitters will produce positive results more often. That's not really what we're after though, is it? Aren't we after a measure of how the hitter is relative to himself in clutch situations?

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            That's not true. You missed when I said:

                            As you can see, this method, and your method, both agree that Ichiro, overall, gets a clutch rating of 0.
                            However, you are right there is no direct link... however, none is needed, as I've shown in that illustration.
                            Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Doesn't your example above assume that all players get the same balance of clutch PA vs blowout PA though? I'm not quite understanding how the WPA - (WPA/LI) method guarnatees that a hitter who hits the same in all situations will get a clutch rating of zero, and my primary objection would be that this method doesn't directly, statistically, define what you're actually after.

                              WPA - Unleveraged WPA = the impact of having high leverage, not the batter's skill in high leverage.

                              You could bypass needing information about Ichiro as a hitter actually and still b edefining something real if you did:

                              SUM(WPA)/AVG(pLI) - SUM(WPA/pLI)...that expression, in English would be:

                              1) Find the player's total WPA
                              2) Adjust that total so that it reflects a neutral leverage (this is the element missing from the fangraphs method...there's no guarantee that the player hit in average leverage overall)
                              3) Subtract from his actual (neutral) WPA the unleveraged value of his plate appearances.

                              That gives you (directly) the number of wins your player added because of better than (his) normal performances in high leverage situations.

                              The AVG(pLI) tweak may not seem like a big deal, but it makes the thing logically consistent and it does have an impact..especially on teams that play a lot of close games.

                              Let's say that Ichiro, because he hits lead-off on a team that scores a lot of runs and gets into a lot of close games, gets 60% blowout PA and 40% clutch PA (this is an extreme example I know). Keeping the numbers from your example above, Ichiro would rate as +0.028 * 0.4 - 0.004 * 0.6 = +0.0088 Wins/PA. My method would correct for that by noting that Ichiro's net LI is not 1, but in fact 2.68 (I know this is very extreme...I'm doing this to prove a point). My way will give you zero clutch rating no matter what your LI distribution looks like if you hit the same in all situations.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                GREAT point. I think it was the missing link.

                                It should be noted that most players will have an LI around 1.00 for their careers. Ichiro, from 2002 to present is at exactly 1.00. Jeter is at 0.95. Bonds is 1.03. Vlad is 1.02. You'll be hard-pressed to find anyone outside of PH who have a 5-yr LI level much different than 1.00.

                                That said, your correction should be applied, and will be especially important for relievers.
                                Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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