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Updated Baseball Fever Policy

Baseball Fever Policy

I. Purpose of this announcement:

This announcement describes the policies pertaining to the operation of Baseball Fever.

Baseball Fever is a moderated baseball message board which encourages and facilitates research and information exchange among fans of our national pastime. The intent of the Baseball Fever Policy is to ensure that Baseball Fever remains an extremely high quality, extremely low "noise" environment.

Baseball Fever is administrated by three principal administrators:
webmaster - Baseball Fever Owner
The Commissioner - Baseball Fever Administrator
Macker - Baseball Fever Administrator

And a group of forum specific super moderators. The role of the moderator is to keep Baseball Fever smoothly and to screen posts for compliance with our policy. The moderators are ALL volunteer positions, so please be patient and understanding of any delays you might experience in correspondence.

II. Comments about our policy:

Any suggestions on this policy may be made directly to the webmaster.

III. Acknowledgments:

This document was based on a similar policy used by SABR.

IV. Requirements for participation on Baseball Fever:

Participation on Baseball Fever is available to all baseball fans with a valid email address, as verified by the forum's automated system, which then in turn creates a single validated account. Multiple accounts by a single user are prohibited.

By registering, you agree to adhere to the policies outlined in this document and to conduct yourself accordingly. Abuse of the forum, by repeated failure to abide by these policies, will result in your access being blocked to the forum entirely.

V. Baseball Fever Netiquette:

Participants at Baseball Fever are required to adhere to these principles, which are outlined in this section.
a. All posts to Baseball Fever should be written in clear, concise English, with proper grammar and accurate spelling. The use of abbreviations should be kept to a minimum; when abbreviation is necessary, they should be either well-known (such as etc.), or explained on their first use in your post.

b. Conciseness is a key attribute of a good post.

c. Quote only the portion of a post to which you are responding.

d. Standard capitalization and punctuation make a large difference in the readability of a post. TYPING IN ALL CAPITALS is considered to be "shouting"; it is a good practice to limit use of all capitals to words which you wish to emphasize.

e. It is our policy NOT to transmit any defamatory or illegal materials.

f. Personal attacks of any type against Baseball Fever readers will not be tolerated. In these instances the post will be copied by a moderator and/or administrator, deleted from the site, then sent to the member who made the personal attack via a Private Message (PM) along with a single warning. Members who choose to not listen and continue personal attacks will be banned from the site.

g. It is important to remember that many contextual clues available in face-to-face discussion, such as tone of voice and facial expression, are lost in the electronic forum. As a poster, try to be alert for phrasing that might be misinterpreted by your audience to be offensive; as a reader, remember to give the benefit of the doubt and not to take umbrage too easily. There are many instances in which a particular choice of words or phrasing can come across as being a personal attack where none was intended.

h. The netiquette described above (a-g) often uses the term "posts", but applies equally to Private Messages.

VI. Baseball Fever User Signature Policy

A signature is a piece of text that some members may care to have inserted at the end of ALL of their posts, a little like the closing of a letter. You can set and / or change your signature by editing your profile in the UserCP. Since it is visible on ALL your posts, the following policy must be adhered to:

Signature Composition
Font size limit: No larger than size 2 (This policy is a size 2)
Style: Bold and italics are permissible
Character limit: No more than 500 total characters
Lines: No more than 4 lines
Colors: Most colors are permissible, but those which are hard to discern against the gray background (yellow, white, pale gray) should be avoided
Images/Graphics: Allowed, but nothing larger than 20k and Content rules must be followed

Signature Content
No advertising is permitted
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Links to personal blogs/websites are permissible - with the webmaster's written consent
A Link to your Baseball Fever Blog does not require written consent and is recommended
Quotes must be attributed. Non-baseball quotes are permissible as long as they are not religious or political

Please adhere to these rules when you create your signature. Failure to do so will result in a request to comply by a moderator. If you do not comply within a reasonable amount of time, the signature will be removed and / or edited by an Administrator. Baseball Fever reserves the right to edit and / or remove any or all of your signature line at any time without contacting the account holder.

VII. Appropriate and inappropriate topics for Baseball Fever:

Most concisely, the test for whether a post is appropriate for Baseball Fever is: "Does this message discuss our national pastime in an interesting manner?" This post can be direct or indirect: posing a question, asking for assistance, providing raw data or citations, or discussing and constructively critiquing existing posts. In general, a broad interpretation of "baseball related" is used.

Baseball Fever is not a promotional environment. Advertising of products, web sites, etc., whether for profit or not-for-profit, is not permitted. At the webmaster's discretion, brief one-time announcements for products or services of legitimate baseball interest and usefulness may be allowed. If advertising is posted to the site it will be copied by a moderator and/or administrator, deleted from the site, then sent to the member who made the post via a Private Message (PM) along with a single warning. Members who choose to not listen and continue advertising will be banned from the site. If the advertising is spam-related, pornography-based, or a "visit-my-site" type post / private message, no warning at all will be provided, and the member will be banned immediately without a warning.

It is considered appropriate to post a URL to a page which specifically and directly answers a question posted on the list (for example, it would be permissible to post a link to a page containing home-road splits, even on a site which has advertising or other commercial content; however, it would not be appropriate to post the URL of the main page of the site). The site reserves the right to limit the frequency of such announcements by any individual or group.

In keeping with our test for a proper topic, posting to Baseball Fever should be treated as if you truly do care. This includes posting information that is, to the best of your knowledge, complete and accurate at the time you post. Any errors or ambiguities you catch later should be acknowledged and corrected in the thread, since Baseball Fever is sometimes considered to be a valuable reference for research information.

VIII. Role of the moderator:

When a post is submitted to Baseball Fever, it is forwarded by the server automatically and seen immediately. The moderator may:
a. Leave the thread exactly like it was submitted. This is the case 95% of the time.

b. Immediately delete the thread as inappropriate for Baseball Fever. Examples include advertising, personal attacks, or spam. This is the case 1% of the time.

c. Move the thread. If a member makes a post about the Marlins in the Yankees forum it will be moved to the appropriate forum. This is the case 3% of the time.

d. Edit the message due to an inappropriate item. This is the case 1% of the time. There have been new users who will make a wonderful post, then add to their signature line (where your name / handle appears) a tagline that is a pure advertisement. This tagline will be removed, a note will be left in the message so he/she is aware of the edit, and personal contact will be made to the poster telling them what has been edited and what actions need to be taken to prevent further edits.

The moderators perform no checks on posts to verify factual or logical accuracy. While he/she may point out gross errors in factual data in replies to the thread, the moderator does not act as an "accuracy" editor. Also moderation is not a vehicle for censorship of individuals and/or opinions, and the moderator's decisions should not be taken personally.

IX. Legal aspects of participation in Baseball Fever:

By submitting a post to Baseball Fever, you grant Baseball Fever permission to distribute your message to the forum. Other rights pertaining to the post remain with the ORIGINAL author, and you may not redistribute or retransmit any posts by any others, in whole or in part, without the express consent of the original author.

The messages appearing on Baseball Fever contain the opinions and views of their respective authors and are not necessarily those of Baseball Fever, or of the Baseball Almanac family of sites.

Sincerely,

Sean Holtz, Webmaster of Baseball Almanac & Baseball Fever
www.baseball-almanac.com | www.baseball-fever.com
"Baseball Almanac: Sharing Baseball. Sharing History."
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More evidence for the hot hand?

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  • More evidence for the hot hand?

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-hand-is-real/


    Though sabermetricians generally believe that streaks of high or low production are the result of random chance, some researchers continue to argue that there may be real patterns. In this article, the authors analyzed the speed of fastballs, and claim that pitchers vacillate between two speeds, hot and cold, i.e., above average and below average in speed. They further claim that typically a streak lasts 24 pitches, alternating between hot and cold. They say these streaks have predictive value, and that prolonged cold streaks also may foreshadow an injury.

    Some comments. In the article, they show a chart of fifty pitchers, with the hot and cold speeds depicted for each. Some pitchers, such as Taijuan Walker, are much further below average when cold than they’re above average when hot. His cold speed is nearly 5 mph lower than his average speed, while his hot speed is less than 1 mph faster. Logically, this has to mean they he throws far fewer cold pitches than hot ones, or the average would not be skewed so much towards the hot speed. Thus the 24/24 rule can’t possibly be true for Walker, nor for any other pitcher where there is a skew like this. Just looking quickly through the chart, I could see at least 12, or about a quarter, that show a definite skew to cold. There are also a couple that skew the other direction, and why there are so much fewer is another issue in itself.

    The other figure shows each pitch from one pitcher, Danny Salazar, and is meant to illustrate the predictive power of the model. Pitches predicted to be fast, depicted as dots colored orange or brown, were generally thrown faster than average, while pitches predicted to be slow, blue or purple dots, were below average in speed. The correlation is apparent from the graph, though no statistics are performed in this very general article. We also aren’t shown the order of the pitches, so we can’t confirm that a streak exists, though presumably if it didn’t, they wouldn’t be able to predict speeds. The figure also shows that Salazar started throwing more slowly shortly before an injury developed.

    The authors I feel did not do a good job explaining what must underlie these patterns of hot and cold speeds. Early in the article, they note that they control for such factors as fatigue, but later, when speculating what causes these patterns, they suggest a pitcher might depend on getting enough rest between starts. They also confuse the issue by bringing in the effect of injury. While an impending injury may be signaled by a prolonged cold streak, the authors’ main point is that these streaks are natural, in the sense that they occur even when a pitcher is completely healthy. This being the case, it seems to me that the cause would have to be some physiological cycle that goes on all the time. For example, muscular strength might oscillate over a period of time.

    If this is the case, then such cycles would probably affect other aspects of the game as well, such as hitting, as the authors suggest. However, they may be much easier to demonstrate in pitching, because there is much less randomness in throwing any pitch, particularly a fastball, than in hitting; the pitcher knows exactly what he’s trying to do, whereas the batter has to react to the pitch he sees. In fact, for all pitchers, the difference between fast and slow speeds is only a few %, whereas the difference between good and bad contact—as measured in exit velocity or launch angle—can be enormous. So while there is probably some randomness in the effort a pitcher makes when throwing a fastball, it could be much less than the difference in the pitcher’s strength, if the latter is controlled by some regular cycle.

    In any case, we have yet to see patterns in hitting. There are hot and cold streaks, of course, but no one would suggest that there are only two states, hot and cold, as the authors claims for fastball speeds, and that each state lasts about a fixed length of time. Finding patterns in hitting will be for more difficult; there is much more random noise there.

  • #2
    I thought this was interesting as I am a long time student of exercise science. In the late 60s, Russian sports scientist determined that a weightlifter's ability to produce explosive movements declined after about 24 total reps in a workout. They also found that athletes needed reduced intensity work (not strict rest) to get out of a "low power rut". It is not muscular fatigue or lack of energy but rather that the nervous system will get into a downregulated firing pattern (reflexes) that only re-sets with work, not rest.

    Comment


    • #3
      I don't believe streaks are always totally random. A player could be playing through a small injury or have a temporary flaw in their mechanics. But of course a streak also could be random so it is hard to use it for predictions since you rarely know what is behind that streak.
      I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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      • #4
        I don't believe streaks are random either, or that the "hot hand" is just statistical noise and doesn't mean anything. I can recall playing in games in football and baseball where I felt different... felt like I was in "The Zone" and had adrenaline pumping and was doing things that weren't typical and could *feel it* and anticipate it. Perhaps it was simply a matter of higher than normal levels of focus on nuance and subtle cues/events during the games, both conscious and unconsciously. I believe it can and does happen, but I've no way to prove it using numbers and statistics.

        Red Auerbach believed in "the hot hand" too and he won a zillion championships as coach of the Boston Celtics and saw all kinds of great players play, for years and years. (OK he won 9 as coach and several more as GM and an executive. Still, he coached & observed the game of basketball for decades, almost as long as Connie Mack did in baseball.)
        Last edited by Calif_Eagle; 08-19-2017, 12:11 PM.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Calif_Eagle View Post
          I don't believe streaks are random either, or that the "hot hand" is just statistical noise and doesn't mean anything. I can recall playing in games in football and baseball where I felt different... felt like I was in "The Zone" and had adrenaline pumping and was doing things that weren't typical and could *feel it* and anticipate it. Perhaps it was simply a matter of higher than normal levels of focus on nuance and subtle cues/events during the games, both conscious and unconsciously. I believe it can and does happen, but I've no way to prove it using numbers and statistics.

          Red Auerbach believed in "the hot hand" too and he won a zillion championships as coach of the Boston Celtics and saw all kinds of great players play, for years and years. (OK he won 9 as coach and several more as GM and an executive. Still, he coached & observed the game of basketball for decades, almost as long as Connie Mack did in baseball.)
          Robbed the STL Hawks of a couple but I digress. :P

          Anyway when I think of "in the zone" I think of that Mean Joe Green America's Game preview where he says people who say that they were in the zone don't know what the heck they are talking about because he was only in the zone once in his life.

          Also for the hot hand. Stanton has a pretty hot hand in the post all star break this season.

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