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OPS Adjustments

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  • OPS Adjustments

    I am thinking that there needs to be an adjustment made when a player's OPS+ is calculated.

    Not every OPS is the same. A guy with 600 plate appearances who has 550 official at bats is defined more by his SLG% than another guy with 600 plate appearances with only 450 official AB. We have a measure of his SLG% based on 22% more AB. The measure of the OBP is the same, both have 600 PA.

    I would think that if 500 AB are going into the SLG% than that part of the equation should mean more to the final product than if only 450 AB are going into it. It's already been proven that OBP is somewhat more important than SLG%, but I wonder if that factor diminishes based on how many more PA the player has than AB.

    A study should be done of the difference in team correlations of runs scored between teams who have about the same team OPS, but one team has 200-300 more walks while the other team has more 200-300 more total bases.

    Maybe we can prove once and for all if two players have the same OPS whether or not the one who walks a lot more is more valuable or less valuable than the one who walks less but hits more.

    .


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  • #2
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    I am thinking that there needs to be an adjustment made when a player's OPS+ is calculated.

    Not every OPS+ is the same.
    Savoy,
    You raise several crucial and extremely valid points here. Well done!!

    Let me piggy-back on your premise. We've had this debate here- in various forms- many times over the years.

    Take the Original Yankee Stadium as an exemplar. Here is some actual data....

    "Just a sample of RH Yankee hitters who played at Yankee Stadium when the dimensions were the same that Joe DiMaggio played under.

    Home Runs------------------------Home------------Away
    Hank Bauer------------------------68----------------90
    Bobby Brown----------------------17------------------5
    Clete Boyer-----------------------37-----------------58
    Hector Lopez----------------------17----------------52
    Snuffy Stirweiss-------------------15----------------12
    Elston Howard---------------------53---------------108
    Johnny Lindell---------------------27----------------36
    Billy Martin-------------------------9----------------26
    Joe Gordon------------------------69---------------84
    Jackie Jenson-----------------------1----------------9
    Gil Mcdougald----------------------29---------------83

    Thats 342 home runs at N.Y and 563 on the road.

    Add in Joe's 148 home and 213 road and it's 490 home and 776 away.

    I did not hand pick RH Yankees to reinforce my point, found what I could. Anyone can feel free to research other RH Yanks and I'm sure you will get the near the same difference, home and away home runs.

    Were all these RH Yankees stubborn, why did they not all change. Face it, Yankee Stadium was not picnic for RH hitters and the long ball.

    Why are all the numbers even neccessary. Look at the park, look at the left side, a power alley longer than most parks in dead center.

    Is it that hard to believe that in 13 seasons Joe didn't lose at least 50 home runs on drives that would be home runs in almost every other park."


    "The park's dimensions changed little between 1937 and 1976, so we can look at players from that timeframe to assess Dimaggio's right handed effects. Look at guys with a decent enough sample size of homeruns. A few more (with a significant time playing on the Yankees) just in the interest of getting as much information as possible.

    (Home--Away)
    Skowron: 60--105
    Meusel: 44--51
    McDougald: 29--83

    So..altogether...that's 623 at home and 1015 on the road...38%,...which is incredibly low for a home team. Very similar to Fobes Field from 1909-46 (35% of homeruns at Forbes were hit by right handed hitters). Forbes was 360 down the LF line, 460 to left center, and 440 to CF.

    Comment


    • #3
      And here's the overarching point. Yankee Stadium was a very good to great park for LH home run hitters/sluggers. But a TOMB for right handed sluggers.

      If memory serves...one of our long-time "Regular" here & ncredible statistician aka: "brett" calculated that Dimaggio's career OPS+ (if *properly* adjusted for handedness) would have been about **175** (instead of his listed 155).

      And...of course, Joe missed 3 years from ages 28-30 in the Service during WWII.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
        I am thinking that there needs to be an adjustment made when a player's OPS+ is calculated.

        Not every OPS is the same. A guy with 600 plate appearances who has 550 official at bats is defined more by his SLG% than another guy with 600 plate appearances with only 450 official AB. We have a measure of his SLG% based on 22% more AB. The measure of the OBP is the same, both have 600 PA.

        I would think that if 500 AB are going into the SLG% than that part of the equation should mean more to the final product than if only 450 AB are going into it. It's already been proven that OBP is somewhat more important than SLG%, but I wonder if that factor diminishes based on how many more PA the player has than AB.

        A study should be done of the difference in team correlations of runs scored between teams who have about the same team OPS, but one team has 200-300 more walks while the other team has more 200-300 more total bases.

        Maybe we can prove once and for all if two players have the same OPS whether or not the one who walks a lot more is more valuable or less valuable than the one who walks less but hits more.
        Think I see where you're going with that. So it really comes down to sample size and production, in that a guy who slugs .500 over 525 AB has produced more than a guy who slugs .500 over just 450 AB. Their OBP will reflect the difference from PA to AB for both, but not the SA. So you're looking to weigh SA essentially. Is that correct?
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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        • #5
          Floyd, that's a totally different point than I am making. You're talking about one unique park that strongly favored hitters from one side of the plate and what we should do about that. It only effects players in very few home parks.

          I am just talking about the math involved in OPS and OPS+. There needs to be some kind of adjustment when figuring OPSD+, and maybe even OPS itself.

          Since OBP has been proven to be more important than SLG% as a component of OPS, maybe what they should do is to take OPS, and then take only a percentage of SLG%, based on what percentage of the players's total PA were official AB.

          Like this:

          OBP is .380
          SLG% is .550

          The player had 600 plate appearances that counted towards his OBP, but only 500 official AB that counted towards his SLG%.

          So we take .380 plus 500/600 (.833) times .550 which comes to .500, and his MOPS (measured OPS) becomes .930. I am thinking that this method will have a stronger correlation to runs scored for a team than just using regular OPS.

          If another player had the same .380 and .550 but had 550 official ABs his measured OPS would be .934. So it gives a bot more credit to the guy with the same OPS who has more total bases and fewer walks.

          .


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          • #6
            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

            Think I see where you're going with that. So it really comes down to sample size and production, in that a guy who slugs .500 over 525 AB has produced more than a guy who slugs .500 over just 450 AB. Their OBP will reflect the difference from PA to AB for both, but not the SA. So you're looking to weigh SA essentially. Is that correct?
            Yes, see my followup post. If I am right this calculation will produce a MOPS (measured OPS) that will correlate a bit better with runs scored than just a straight OPS.
            .


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            • #7
              Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
              I am thinking that there needs to be an adjustment made when a player's OPS+ is calculated.

              Not every OPS is the same. A guy with 600 plate appearances who has 550 official at bats is defined more by his SLG% than another guy with 600 plate appearances with only 450 official AB. We have a measure of his SLG% based on 22% more AB. The measure of the OBP is the same, both have 600 PA.

              I would think that if 500 AB are going into the SLG% than that part of the equation should mean more to the final product than if only 450 AB are going into it. It's already been proven that OBP is somewhat more important than SLG%, but I wonder if that factor diminishes based on how many more PA the player has than AB.

              A study should be done of the difference in team correlations of runs scored between teams who have about the same team OPS, but one team has 200-300 more walks while the other team has more 200-300 more total bases.

              Maybe we can prove once and for all if two players have the same OPS whether or not the one who walks a lot more is more valuable or less valuable than the one who walks less but hits more.
              I prefer to use wRC+ offered at Fangraphs:
              https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
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              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
                I am thinking that there needs to be an adjustment made when a player's OPS+ is calculated.

                Not every OPS is the same. A guy with 600 plate appearances who has 550 official at bats is defined more by his SLG% than another guy with 600 plate appearances with only 450 official AB. We have a measure of his SLG% based on 22% more AB. The measure of the OBP is the same, both have 600 PA.

                I would think that if 500 AB are going into the SLG% than that part of the equation should mean more to the final product than if only 450 AB are going into it. It's already been proven that OBP is somewhat more important than SLG%, but I wonder if that factor diminishes based on how many more PA the player has than AB.

                A study should be done of the difference in team correlations of runs scored between teams who have about the same team OPS, but one team has 200-300 more walks while the other team has more 200-300 more total bases.

                Maybe we can prove once and for all if two players have the same OPS whether or not the one who walks a lot more is more valuable or less valuable than the one who walks less but hits more.
                The gap between PAs and ABs is the main reason why ops+ is best but the weighting in slugging is not correct either.

                OPS+ is going the way of the dinosauer, there are much better alternatives out there in wOBA and wRC+ (adjusted wOBA). adding two divisions with different denominators is never going to be sound math.
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                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Floyd Gondolli View Post
                  And here's the overarching point. Yankee Stadium was a very good to great park for LH home run hitters/sluggers. But a TOMB for right handed sluggers.

                  If memory serves...one of our long-time "Regular" here & ncredible statistician aka: "brett" calculated that Dimaggio's career OPS+ (if *properly* adjusted for handedness) would have been about **175** (instead of his listed 155).

                  And...of course, Joe missed 3 years from ages 28-30 in the Service during WWII.
                  Joe's rrOPS+ is 164.2. That 9 point gain is significant, each point carries a lot of weight, given the expected home park performance boost.
                  "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                  ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

                    Yes, see my followup post. If I am right this calculation will produce a MOPS (measured OPS) that will correlate a bit better with runs scored than just a straight OPS.
                    Ok so what you're looking to do then, before even calculating OPS+, is set aside relative OBP leaving as is. Then isolate relative SA and weigh it by 7500 AB or something.
                    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

                      Ok so what you're looking to do then, before even calculating OPS+, is set aside relative OBP leaving as is. Then isolate relative SA and weigh it by 7500 AB or something.
                      Weigh it by the percentage of total AB used for the SLG% calculation divided by the number of PA used for the OBP calculation.

                      .


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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

                        Weigh it by the percentage of total AB used for the SLG% calculation divided by the number of PA used for the OBP calculation.
                        Isn't the number that really matters is the raw AB total though? I'm not sure how the PA/AB ratio number is useful
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

                          Isn't the number that really matters is the raw AB total though? I'm not sure how the PA/AB ratio number is useful
                          It's useful because it shows how much difference there is between the total PA and the official AB. So it "measures" how significant the SLG% number is in relation to the player's total PA.

                          .


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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

                            I prefer to use wRC+ offered at Fangraphs:
                            https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/
                            This. The only reason OPS is still used is because it's related to traditional stats that everyone understands, and it tracks pretty closely with wRC+. But no modification of OPS is going to be as good as a metric based on run values of every offensive event.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

                              This. The only reason OPS is still used is because it's related to traditional stats that everyone understands, and it tracks pretty closely with wRC+. But no modification of OPS is going to be as good as a metric based on run values of every offensive event.
                              Where is the wRC+ leaderboard and season by season? Until there this a reference point with that information, it has no chance to ever seep into mainstream.

                              I understand the weighted aspect and I'm down with it. In terms of home/road production and wRC+ how do they handle it. If the same garbage slip-shod park factors are used, then more perspective could definitely be gained.
                              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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