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Does WAR literally mean that player earned the team those wins by himself?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by ProfessionalLollyGagger View Post
    I've always questioned Defensive WAR. How exactly is that even calculated? How can you go back to early years and come back with any type of accuracy? Say for example I'm curious how Dimaggio and Mays compare as center fielders... how are do they get those numbers? 6.8.0
    Currently, one of the most popular methods is to determine the difficulty of making a play on a ball hit in a certain place, with players credited more for making difficult plays than easier ones. E.g., if the league average is that a play is made on a certain ball in a certain place 50% of the time, a player gets 50% of the run value for making that play--the run value being determined as the average runs or fraction of a run that score when a play is not made on that ball.

    We didn't have this approach until recently, but some analysts are trying to make estimates based on available data. There has been an interesting discussion wrt this on DiMaggio. And If you want to go way back, say a century or so ago, all the records we have just indicate that a player made a play on a certain % of balls hit his way; then he's compared to the average for that position. The assumption is that over a large sample size, the difficulties will average out.
    Last edited by Stolensingle; 03-15-2020, 11:42 PM.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by dominik View Post
      Clutch is not a sustainable skill .
      Technically, clutch is not a sustainable skill for MOST players and it takes a large sample size to find the signal in the noise for those who do have the skill.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

        Technically, clutch is not a sustainable skill for MOST players and it takes a large sample size to find the signal in the noise for those who do have the skill.
        Some skill sets are better suited to clutch production than others. A player who makes a lot of contact, and doesn't strike out much will have higher Base Runners Advanced and Base Runners Scored percentages. In other words, he'll deliver more often with runners on base.

        WAR ignores this.


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        • #19
          Originally posted by Mongoose View Post

          Some skill sets are better suited to clutch production than others. A player who makes a lot of contact, and doesn't strike out much will have higher Base Runners Advanced and Base Runners Scored percentages. In other words, he'll deliver more often with runners on base.

          WAR ignores this.
          WAR is framework. Somebody could use WPA instead of BaseRuns in WAR and it would 1. include "clutch" AND 2. still be WAR. There are multiple WAR and WAR-like implementation that do this...such as our own PARC-D.
          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
            Dear baseball gods...please let me see Tango go at it with Wilshad about statistics at least once in my life. It would allow me to die in peace.
            Tango doesn't deserve that kind of torment. OTOH, this must be some kind of karmic punishment for us.
            "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
            "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
            "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
            "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

              Currently, one of the most popular methods is to determine the difficulty of making a play on a ball hit in a certain place, with players credited more for making difficult plays than easier ones. E.g., if the league average is that a play is made on a certain ball in a certain place 50% of the time, a player gets 50% of the run value for making that play--the run value being determined as the average runs or fraction of a run that score when a play is not made on that ball.

              We didn't have this approach until recently, but some analysts are trying to make estimates based on available data. There has been an interesting discussion wrt this on DiMaggio. And If you want to go way back, say a century or so ago, all the records we have just indicate that a player made a play on a certain % of balls hit his way; then he's compared to the average for that position. The assumption is that over a large sample size, the difficulties will average out.
              Interesting... I have an honest question, when a WAR figure is calculated are defensive metrics factored into that final number?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by ProfessionalLollyGagger View Post

                Interesting... I have an honest question, when a WAR figure is calculated are defensive metrics factored into that final number?
                Of course. You can see how in the FG leaderboards, value tab.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

                  Of course. You can see how in the FG leaderboards, value tab.
                  So is it safe to say that WAR season totals are inaccurate for older players? I'm a big Dimaggio guy.... obviously his defensive metrics cant be accurate... i feel the need to defend myself as this seems to be a basic question, i'm very familiar with sabermetrics i just never really sat down and put thought into this. Now that I'm quarantined I seem to have a lot more time lol. Am i correct in thinking that past a certain year WAR is not useful in determining a players true value??

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by ProfessionalLollyGagger View Post

                    So is it safe to say that WAR season totals are inaccurate for older players? I'm a big Dimaggio guy.... obviously his defensive metrics cant be accurate... i feel the need to defend myself as this seems to be a basic question, i'm very familiar with sabermetrics i just never really sat down and put thought into this. Now that I'm quarantined I seem to have a lot more time lol. Am i correct in thinking that past a certain year WAR is not useful in determining a players true value??
                    You have a fair point, sure. It's not a sharp line, we just don't have as much info for periods in the past. As I said before, there has been a discussion about DiMaggio, about how the cavernous OF in YS allowed him to cut off gappers to singles, and maybe he didn't get full credit for that. Someone here should know about that.

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