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  • Catcher defense

    Great research from Tom Tango: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site...s/catcher-wowy

    Are Yadier Molina and Russell Martin future HOFers?

    Is Gary Carter underrated in the pantheon of catchers?

    Hopefully we'll see more research on this topic
    Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
    http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

  • #2
    So Carter is worth 120 more WAR? And passes Ruth as the greatest player ever?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
      So Carter is worth 120 more WAR? And passes Ruth as the greatest player ever?
      "In the Gary Carter starts, his teams allowed 7246 runs. And since this is 1204 lower than his mates, his mates would come in at a pro-rated 8450 runs. Just because we’ve OBSERVED 8450 (pro-rated) runs doesn’t mean that’s the true rate. How much Random Variation is there in runs allowed? I should figure it out at this point, but let’s say it’s one standard deviation is 3 runs per game. With 1964 starts, you take the square root and multiply by 3 runs and that gives you 133 runs. Since we have observations on both Carter and his mates, the Random Variation of the DIFFERENCE is 133 times root 2, or 188 runs. So, based on that number 3 that I totally made up, we can reduce the 1204 by twice 188 runs due to Random Variation (for 2 standard deviations). That still leaves us with a whopping 828 runs lowered. So, whatever you can say RAndom Variation contributes to the noise in that 1204 runs, it won’t be able to wipe away even half of it. Most of it is real."

      Pure WOW-Y indicates 1204 runs, when Tom factors in random variation for 188 runs, the result is 828 runs lowered or maybe the floor of his defensive contributions?
      If I look at Carter's Fangraphs page, his fielding column shows 112, reducing 828 by this gets us 716.

      If we added ~71.6 wins to his ledger, his WAR jumps to 140, provided the replacement adjustment is fixed.
      If true, this puts Carter in the discussion of top 5-10 players of all-time.
      Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
      http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

      Comment


      • #4
        • Are the backups of Gary Carter disproportionately worse than the backups of Cochrane and Pena and so on?
        • Was Gary Carter paired disproportionately with the best pitchers on his staff, compared to his mates?
        Those were the first two things that I thought about....and we need these questions answered. To Tango's credit, he mentions them...but then doesn't answer the question. For example, when Cal Ripken was the starting shortstop....just how good did the backup SS of the Orioles need to be. Similarly, when Carter was catching most of the games, just how good did the backup need to be? Or could the Expos/Mets afford to keep very poor backups and solve other more pressing needs? It's not like Mickey Cochrane's era, where they played 25+ double headers a year, where you knew the backup was going to play....Gary Carter started 130+ games nine times, an almost unheard of number for a catcher. Even Yadier Molina has only done that seven times, and he is famous for playing almost all the time. Molina's caught 1200 innings only once, yet Carter did that eight times. It wouldn't surprise me if the backups on the Expos and Mets were especially awful since those teams knew they would only be needed for 250 innings a year, not 400-500.
        I don't think either one of them can win it.-one sportswriter's assessment of the 1945 world series between the tigers and cubs.
        Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

        Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

        Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

        Comment


        • #5
          Rally has entered the conversation, yielding similar results to Tango on catchers:
          http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site...catcher-wowy#6

          Rally / Tango ranks

          Gary Carter (1 / 1)
          Yadier Molina (2 / 4)
          Brad Ausmus (3 / 5)
          Mickey Cochrane (4 / 2)
          Tony Pena (5 / 3)
          Andy Seminick ( / 6)
          Rick Ferrell ( / 7)
          Johnny Bench ( / 8)
          Jason Varitek ( / 9)
          Al Lopez ( / 10)
          Russell Martin ( / 11)

          Rally took a glance at other positions, though Tango rightly noted sample size challenges, Gehrig is first, but he didn't miss any games :

          Best of the rest:
          Lou Gehrig
          Willie Mays
          Indian Bob Johnson
          Frank White
          Curt Flood
          Arky Vaughan
          Willie Randolph
          John Olerud
          Brooks Robinson
          Steve Garvey
          Lu Blue
          Willie Davis
          Eric Chavez

          The worst:
          Derek Jeter
          Carlos Lee
          Alexei Ramirez
          Bobby Abreu
          Richie Ashburn
          Magglio Ordonez
          Dwight Evans
          Ed Sprague
          Eric Young Sr.


          Andruw Jones, Dave Winfield, and Alex Rodriguez SS also perform poorly.
          Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
          http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

          Comment


          • #6
            For the life of me, I can't find Stieb's comment about viewing Baseball Gauge rankings for catcher defense, and searching for framing data.

            Yearly data can be found here at Baseball Prospectus, Framing Runs:
            https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...hp?cid=1899425

            FRM at Fangraphs is framing, data available starting in 2008:
            https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...2-31&sort=14,d
            https://blogs.fangraphs.com/war-update-catcher-framing/

            While I'm posting links, an old study on game calling. 1950-2010:
            http://www.baseballprojection.com/sp...cher_gcall.htm

            Max Marchi's seminal study on framing:
            https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...itching-staff/
            Last edited by Jar of Flies; 07-28-2020, 05:18 AM.
            Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
            http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
              Rally has entered the conversation, yielding similar results to Tango on catchers:
              http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site...catcher-wowy#6

              Rally / Tango ranks

              Gary Carter (1 / 1)
              Yadier Molina (2 / 4)
              Brad Ausmus (3 / 5)
              Mickey Cochrane (4 / 2)
              Tony Pena (5 / 3)
              Andy Seminick ( / 6)
              Rick Ferrell ( / 7)
              Johnny Bench ( / 8)
              Jason Varitek ( / 9)
              Al Lopez ( / 10)
              Russell Martin ( / 11)

              Rally took a glance at other positions, though Tango rightly noted sample size challenges, Gehrig is first, but he didn't miss any games :

              Best of the rest:
              Lou Gehrig
              Willie Mays
              Indian Bob Johnson
              Frank White
              Curt Flood
              Arky Vaughan
              Willie Randolph
              John Olerud
              Brooks Robinson
              Steve Garvey
              Lu Blue
              Willie Davis
              Eric Chavez

              The worst:
              Derek Jeter
              Carlos Lee
              Alexei Ramirez
              Bobby Abreu
              Richie Ashburn
              Magglio Ordonez
              Dwight Evans
              Ed Sprague
              Eric Young Sr.


              Andruw Jones, Dave Winfield, and Alex Rodriguez SS also perform poorly.
              It looks like Tango made some changes based on controlling for pitchers further down the comments that changed the results. Of course he didn't post a new list.

              He also talked about why this system will not work as well for non-catchers.

              In the end - the biggest talking point may be that catchers have been significantly undervalued by WAR and by historians. Something some of us have been touting for years. And something PARC-D tries, to some degree, to correct.

              But the extremeness of the numbers leaves me with more questions than answers. Is it possible that GREAT defensive catchers based on framing and staff handling, etc. are actually right up there with the very best players in MLB history? Are Brad Ausmus and Tony Pena easy HOFers? I mean, I guess. But that will change everything we ever "knew" about baseball more than anything we have learned the past 30 years. As Rally (who is actually WAR creator Sean Smith) suggested, if these fielding ranges are true, we would see teams all the time with hundreds or even thousands of runs saved defensively every year...which can't and doesn't happen. Even more so than DIPS theory. It definitely requires a LOT more studying.

              As Tango said, there is some noise here, but be careful.
              Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 07-28-2020, 02:45 PM.
              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

              Comment


              • #8
                And the creator of WAR doesn't know anything about Indian Bob Johnson's reputation? Is he a fan of baseball or just a numbers guy?
                I don't think either one of them can win it.-one sportswriter's assessment of the 1945 world series between the tigers and cubs.
                Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post
                  And the creator of WAR doesn't know anything about Indian Bob Johnson's reputation? Is he a fan of baseball or just a numbers guy?
                  Why would any non-baseball fan dedicate his whole life to analyzing it better?

                  There are many ways to enjoy/study baseball. For example, some of the biggest baseball fans I know play the game all the time, but know next to nothing about the history of the game.

                  Baseball fans can be many things other than old-timey player butt-sniffers.
                  Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 07-28-2020, 03:34 PM.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                    Why would any non-baseball fan dedicate his whole life to analyzing it better?

                    There are many ways to enjoy/study baseball. For example, some of the biggest baseball fans I know play the game all the time, but know next to nothing about the history of the game.

                    Baseball fans can be many things other than old-timey player butt-sniffers.
                    I didn't mean it like that; some people literally only like the math of baseball and never watch games. I know people like that....I'd consider that a numbers guy.


                    For the second part, I pity the fools!
                    I don't think either one of them can win it.-one sportswriter's assessment of the 1945 world series between the tigers and cubs.
                    Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                    Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                    Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post

                      I didn't mean it like that; some people literally only like the math of baseball and never watch games. I know people like that....I'd consider that a numbers guy.


                      For the second part, I pity the fools!
                      I sadly don't view many games, but I try to listen whenever reasonably possible But I did grow up watching games and dad started me on spreadsheets at age 10, so I love the game and the numbers/analysis aspects.
                      Last edited by Jar of Flies; 07-28-2020, 06:04 PM.
                      Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                      http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

                        I sadly don't view many games, but I try to listen whenever reasonably possible But I did grow up watching games and dad started me on spreadsheets at age 10, so I love the game and the numbers/analysis aspects.
                        I love listening to the game on the radio. The loss of Ed Farmer has been huge for my listening entertainment.
                        I don't think either one of them can win it.-one sportswriter's assessment of the 1945 world series between the tigers and cubs.
                        Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                        Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                        Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post

                          I love listening to the game on the radio. The loss of Ed Farmer has been huge for my listening entertainment.
                          Sox have a fine color team with Jason Benetti (merging the old and new school) and Steve Stone (blunt and knowledgeable) for TV
                          Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                          http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

                            Sox have a fine color team with Jason Benetti (merging the old and new school) and Steve Stone (blunt and knowledgeable) for TV
                            Steve Stone is the best there is in baseball, period. I've not warmed up to Benetti...not overly impressed so far in his Sox career.
                            I don't think either one of them can win it.-one sportswriter's assessment of the 1945 world series between the tigers and cubs.
                            Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                            Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                            Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

                            Comment

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