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  • Calculating OPS

    _________


    OPS - considered the best metric for a batter isn't as good as it could be IMO
    it considers a walk the same as a single

    that's not right
    a single has more value than a walk

    a single can drive a runner home from 2nd - a walk can't do that

    or to 3rd from 2nd - a walk can't do that unless there was already a runner on 1st

    or to 3rd from 1st - a walk can't do that either

    a single will drive a player home from 3rd - a walk will only do that if the bases are loaded


    according to the link this is how OPS is calculated:



    "Calculating OPS


    OPS is the sum of a player's on-base percentage and his slugging percentage. The first measures how often the player makes it to first base, while the second gives analysts a way to measure how often he hits a double, triple or home run."




    How to Calculate OPS in Baseball (sportsrec.com)

  • #2
    I don’t think there is a perfect stat for hitters. They all have their on value. I personally like ops though. As far as walks being more or less valueable than a single, depends on the situation. A lead off walk is more valuable than a 2 out single. And in that same situation is equal in value than a lead off single. Many other situations as well

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    • #3
      SmallyBig Actually ops doesn't calculate a walk like a single.

      Let's take two guys with 1 PA. One singles, one walks.

      walk guy line: .000/1000/000= 1000 ops
      hit guy: 1000/1000/1000=2000 ops

      this means actually ops underrates walks and overrates hits because hits are better but not twice as good. There are calculations that ops is overeating slugging compared to ops by like 1.7 or so.

      there is a better stat called woba/wrc+ that doesn't count hits twice by adding obp and slg which assigns certain linear values to batting events and uses a per plate appearance scale so you are not addding two different denominators.

      https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/
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      • #4
        Originally posted by SmallyBig View Post
        _________


        OPS - considered the best metric for a batter isn't as good as it could be IMO
        it considers a walk the same as a single

        that's not right
        a single has more value than a walk

        a single can drive a runner home from 2nd - a walk can't do that

        or to 3rd from 2nd - a walk can't do that unless there was already a runner on 1st

        or to 3rd from 1st - a walk can't do that either

        a single will drive a player home from 3rd - a walk will only do that if the bases are loaded


        according to the link this is how OPS is calculated:



        "Calculating OPS


        OPS is the sum of a player's on-base percentage and his slugging percentage. The first measures how often the player makes it to first base, while the second gives analysts a way to measure how often he hits a double, triple or home run."




        How to Calculate OPS in Baseball (sportsrec.com)
        I don't think it is considered the best measure for a batter nor was it designed to be, I just think it was an easily understandable metric that showed more than batting average.

        actual advanced metrics take into account the value of the action and weights them accordingly.
        "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

        -Bill James

        Comment


        • #5
          I'd argue you're both partially wrong. The key problem is that OPS is actually an incredibly clever idea for what was considered at the time the "second" best stat.

          OPS was invented and introduced alongside "linear weights" (a/k/a wOBA or rOBA). The selling point of OPS was that it was the stat that most closely approximated linear weights when compared to all traditional stats.

          Here's a pretty generic wOBA formula (.7 (BB + HBP) + .9 x1b + 1.27 x2b + 1.62 x3b + 2.10x HR)/PA
          Compare that to OPS
          OBP + SLG = (BB+HBP+H)/PA + TB/AB .

          (1 (BB+ HBP) + 2x1B + 3x2B+4x3B + 5xHR)/(ungodly denominator which we're ignoring for time being)

          So, according to OPS, a double is worth 3/2 of a single instead of ~1.41 according to wOBA and a HR is worth 2.5 singles instead of 2.33.


          This is fundamentally why OPS works despite not making a lot of conceptual sense. There are bigger flaws with value of walk and to a lesser extent triples but it's the closest way to approximate linear weights without making people think about it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Because of the simple fact that at the heart of all this, baseball is a kids' game, I cannot see how OPS is a valid 'stat'.

            Stats are one way for a passionate kid fan of the game to accomplish two things at once: 1) better understand baseball and 2) appreciate why math matters in school.

            Such is how every baby boomer's pre-adolescent, pre-puberty view of baseball evolved. Stats were printed on the back of baseball cards because adults serving as company card executives understood the second sentence above.

            If a 'stat' involves anything more than the two steps involved in calculating ERA, or the five steps involved in calculating Total Bases, then the 'stat' becomes more of a tool. Or, if a 'stat' is difficult to explain in the terms of what just happened on the field, then it is also more of a tool.

            This is the reason I consider WAR to be a tool.... because a kid cannot calculate it in his head (or even with pencil and paper for most kids). The end result of a WAR calculation is difficult to witness within one AB or play on the field. Therefore, the calculation is more of a tool.

            OPS has the same weakness in its appeal, IMO. The previous poster has spelled out the full calculation, and I count five steps. Of course, this becomes just one calculation step when the percentages are shown on a website or printed page.... but the end result of an OPS calculation is still difficult to witness within one AB or a play on the field. First base was double counted as the hitter crosses safely onto first base just once, for criminy sakes! Try explaining this to an ordinary, math-challenged 10 year-old who is first learning baseball.

            Tool, tool, tool.

            If I was a 10 year old today in Little League, I would approach the stat guy after the game and ask whether I could take a 0.000 on OBP, if you could just double my BA please. I'll go out and cross first twice, since you count it twice.
            Last edited by abolishthedh; 08-24-2021, 02:00 PM.
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            Comment


            • #7
              One thing I never understood about OPS is doesn't it double count hits? OBP considers hits and so does slugging. OPS adds both numbers. So it double counts hits.

              Wouldn't a better measure be OBP without hits included plus slugging, since slugging actually measures the value of each hit better than OBP, which gives them each equal value?
              Last edited by AlexS; 08-25-2021, 03:03 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by AlexS View Post
                One thing I never understood about OPS is doesn't it double count hits? OBP considers hits and so does slugging. OPS adds both numbers. So it double counts hits.

                Wouldn't a better measure be OBP without hits included plus slugging, since slugging actually measures the value of each hit better than OBP, which gives them each equal value?
                Here's Pete Palmer making the point again in 2019. The short answer is OBP+SLG isn't as accurate which also means it's further from linear weight values.

                https://sabr.org/journal/article/why-ops-works/



                "Taking an average player and adding ten at-bats reduces his OPS by about 12 points. Adding 10 walks raises it by 11 points, while 10 singles adds 22 points. Doubles, triples, and homers increase the value by 40, 59, and 77 points respectively. This shows a ratio of 1-2-3-5-7, a bit higher than the 1-2-3-4-5 factors for linear weights. Thus slugging is little heavier than it should be. Tom Tango addressed this problem in his wOBA calculation. He took the linear weight values for each event and created a pseudo OBA. The result looks very much like linear weight runs per appearance plus league average OBA. Tom also made an allowance for the fact that walks are more apt to occur in low value situations by reducing their value."
                Last edited by ErrorYard; 08-25-2021, 08:12 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  When Rob Neyer was writing for ESPN.com, he detailed in one column the reasons why the formula ought to be something like (OBP x 1.8) + SLG rather than simply adding the two together. After learning that, I always gave a slight bump to the guy with the higher OBP when two players had a similar OPS.

                  Later, FanGraphs would publish Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) which effectively does the same thing.
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