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  • Lineup formulas/tools

    A writer over at hardballtimes.com recommended this tool to create your team's ideal batting order -- http://home.comcast.net/~stein.steph...mp/lineup.html I couldn't actually get the tool to work myself (anyone?), but the assumptions on which it's based seem reasonable to me. That is,

    1. Put the best OPS in 3rd
    2. Put the best remaining Slg in 4th
    3. Put the best remaining OBP's in 1st and 2nd (with the better Slg in 2nd)
    4. Arrange the remaining players in order of descending Slg

    What do you think? Sounds pretty logical, right? So I looked back to last year's stats and applied the methodology to my own team. Not exactly the results I was expecting.

    Try it with your own team and see what you get.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Dontworry
    A writer over at hardballtimes.com recommended this tool to create your team's ideal batting order -- http://home.comcast.net/~stein.steph...mp/lineup.html I couldn't actually get the tool to work myself (anyone?), but the assumptions on which it's based seem reasonable to me. That is,

    1. Put the best OPS in 3rd
    What if it's a guy like Billy Hamilton or John McGraw who gets most of his OPS from the "O"?

    <3. Put the best remaining OBP's in 1st and 2nd (with the better Slg in 2nd)>

    What if one guy has a barely better SLG but WAY better OBP, wouldn't you want him in 1st?

    <4. Arrange the remaining players in order of descending Slg>

    But shouldn't you consider OBP?
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    • #3
      You do get some werid results here's what the best prospective line-up for '06 would look like:

      1. Lo Duca
      2. Floyd
      3. Delgado
      4. Wright
      5. Diaz/Nady (either fits the formula)
      6 Beltran
      7. Reyes
      8. Matsui

      Of course part of this is because of Beltran's poor season last year. If you used his career numbers he'd be plugged in the 2 slot, I think, depending on the exact specfications of SLG vs. OBP ( he'd have the highest remaining in both categories).

      One potential problem with this formula is it doesn't take into account "protection," assuming it really exists. Who gets walks is sometimes determined by where they hit. There's no guarantee the walk rate for certain guys replicates when you move the order around.

      There are other tangential questions as well, for example Reyes' OBP is terrible, but what to make of the fact that he's a virtual lock to go first to third on a single? Does 60 SBs mitigate some of his poor SLG? A single and stolen base on the next pitch isn't really all that different from a double. There are ton of things to consider here, a simple formula probably doesn't do the process justice- especially when you have guys with unique talents and deficiencies like Reyes.
      Last edited by digglahhh; 02-24-2006, 11:46 AM.
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      • #4
        Best 2006 Red Sox lineup

        1. Kevin Youkilis
        2. Jason Varitek
        3. David Ortiz
        4. Manny Ramirez
        5. Coco Crisp
        6. Trot Nixon
        7. Alex Gonzalez
        8. Mike Lowell
        9. Mark Loretta

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        • #5
          I think it's pretty logical, but like a purely statistical approach it is too superficial. It doesn't take into account, example, how good of a situational hitter your 2man is, or how good your cleanup guy is w/ runners on, or even the simple fact that some guys are not very good at certain order slots. Overall though, it isn't a horrible way to go, its better than just looking at BAs and RBIs and going from there.

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          • #6
            Crazy Order:
            1. Bob Abreu
            2. Chipper Jones
            3. Derrek Lee
            4. Ryan Howard
            5. Matt Murton
            6. Matsui
            7. Carlos Lee
            8. Kotchmen
            9. Morneau

            This is crazy! Abreu would not hit 1 and murton would not hit 5
            and moneau would not hit 9
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            • #7
              The Book just shipped this week. It has a section on lineups and what it found was a little different.
              Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality
              And your pitcher if he is not a good hitting pitcher should bat 8th, not 9th. The increase in plate appearances is not offset by the gain of having a better hitter before your best hitters.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Dontworry
                A writer over at hardballtimes.com recommended this tool to create your team's ideal batting order -- http://home.comcast.net/~stein.steph...mp/lineup.html I couldn't actually get the tool to work myself (anyone?), but the assumptions on which it's based seem reasonable to me. That is,

                1. Put the best OPS in 3rd
                2. Put the best remaining Slg in 4th
                3. Put the best remaining OBP's in 1st and 2nd (with the better Slg in 2nd)
                4. Arrange the remaining players in order of descending Slg

                What do you think? Sounds pretty logical, right? So I looked back to last year's stats and applied the methodology to my own team. Not exactly the results I was expecting.

                Try it with your own team and see what you get.

                It's a pretty logical approach, but it doesn't take handedness into account, nor which way a player bats.

                Comment


                • #9
                  that's all it was meant to be

                  a "toy". A way to answer all the questions that arise on simulation game bulletin boards - "what lineup should I use with these guys"?

                  In real life, or even with a better stat set (L/R splits and stuff) you can certainly do better. The toy is just a quick and dirty way to get a good starting point. Then you can swap guys around here and there and get a reasonable lineup.

                  I'm intrigued by what I'm hearing about the method in "The Book". I had a preferred lineup analysis method about 15 years ago (http://home.comcast.net/~stein.stephen/lineup.html) which did actual analysis instead of using simplistic rules. But some of the things "The Book" says are similar to what my older method said - the best hitter is often the 2 hitter, not the 3. I also found that good OBP is very useful in the 9 slot, which means optimal NL lineups should usually not have the pitcher bat last. Does The Book say anything about that?
                  Last edited by Steve_Stein; 03-29-2006, 07:57 PM.

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                  • #10
                    slight edit:

                    Originally posted by Steve_Stein
                    In real life, or even with a better stat set (L/R splits and stuff) it's a quick and dirty way to get a good starting point.
                    I meant to say: "In real life, or even with a better stat set (L/R splits and stuff) you can certainly do better. The toy is just a quick and dirty way to get a good starting point."

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Steve_Stein
                      I also found that good OBP is very useful in the 9 slot, which means optimal NL lineups should usually not have the pitcher bat last. Does The Book say anything about that?
                      Yes, it does. And my research concurs with your assertion.
                      Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Tango Tiger
                        Yes, it does. And my research concurs with your assertion.
                        When I played Video Games and was an NL team, I'd always bat my pitcher in the seventh spot. That way, I could have more speed at the bottom of the line-up so the lead-off batter could utilize his speed and advance better when the order turned over. Is there any statistical advantage to that? (BTW, I've never been one for the pitcher batting ninth, anyway, due to the above logic.)
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                        I hope that's all.

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                        • #13
                          #7 and #9 are equivalent in terms of where to put the pitcher. #8 is best, and #4 is worst. It's all laid out in the book.

                          Thanks...
                          Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                          • #14
                            Astros "perfect" lineup
                            1) Brad Ausmus
                            2) Preston Wilson
                            3) Morgan Ensberg
                            4) Lance Berkman
                            5) Jason Lane
                            6) Craig Biggio
                            7) Adam Everett
                            8) Willy Tavarez
                            9) Pitcher

                            Makes you wonder why you don't see more catchers leading off.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              At a minimum, you need to have a lineup against lefties and against righties. Preferably (and especially if you have a severe GB or FB hitter), you need to break those down against FB and GB pitchers.

                              If you repost your players with their batting hand, and with their expected overall BA, OBP, SLG, then I'll give you my take on it.
                              Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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