Measuring Hitting Ability in Isolation

[csh19792001]

I was thinking about isolating actual hitting skill, completely independent of plate discipline and walks. What's the best currently available statistic for measuring isolated hitting ability? That is, power coupled with consistency of actual base hits, hopefully adjusted for league and park. When I was thinking about pure hitting, I had in mind Dick Allen. He wasn't good at all in terms of drawing walks or OBP, but his average and slugging were outstanding relative to his league context. He was just a raw hitter. I'm sure there are much better examples, but he's the first that came to mind.

This is totally off the cuff and probably horribly misguided, but how about a stat such as "relative isolated slugging + relative batting average"?

[SABR Matt]

TB/AB would be the logical thing to do if you wanted to single out just what the hitter produced by actually swinging the bat.

[csh19792001]

TB/AB would be the logical thing to do if you wanted to single out just what the hitter produced by actually swinging the bat.

True, but doesn't that kind of blur the issue by amalgamating contact hitting and power hitting?

Matt, do you have lists handy for the all time leaders in both relative ISO and relative BA? I wonder who would come out with the highest composite ranking....

Also, if we're looking at hitting skill in isolation, shouldn't SO rate relative to league averages be factored in? I know it isn't statistically meaningful en masse, but I'm trying to assess skill, not necessarily value.

The most skilled hitters hit for outstanding average and power with low K rates.

Does anyone know who the leaders are in strikeout rate, relative to league averages?

[SABR Matt]

The most skilled hitters hit for average because they have high BABIP but ALSO low Ks so the BABIP takes up more of the ABs.

Is it your suggestion that Mark McGwire's 300 bases demonstrate less pure batting skill than (say) Joe DiMaggio's, because DiMag got his in 180 hits instead of 140?

[digglahhh]

True, but doesn't that kind of blur the issue by amalgamating contact hitting and power hitting?

Matt, do you have lists handy for the all time leaders in both relative ISO and relative BA? I wonder who would come out with the highest composite ranking....

Also, if we're looking at hitting skill in isolation, shouldn't SO rate relative to league averages be factored in? I know it isn't statistically meaningful en masse, but I'm trying to assess skill, not necessarily value.

The most skilled hitters hit for outstanding average and power with low K rates.

Does anyone know who the leaders are in strikeout rate, relative to league averages?

I was a little skeptical of the underlying presumption of your first post, and it was because I expected a follow along the sorts of the above. I don't know if you really can measure hitting ability in isolation of plate discipline and walks.

I mean, knowing you, I knew you would at some point suggest that low K totals would come into play - and yes, that is indeed a good indicator of raw skill, but it also introduces something of a problem. If you are going to credit a player for successfully hitting strikes, it seems unfair to not credit him for successfully not swinging at balls. Not to mention, walk totals are not unrelated to a hitter's ability with the bat - in many cases it indicates the ultimate respect for it.

On the above basis, I would stay away from anything involving TB. Perhaps, not combining rel IsoSLG and BA, but setting a cut off point is the better move. Like a list of all players who were x% better than the league in both departments. I wouldn't combine them directly because they don't relate on a 1:1 scale per se.

[csh19792001]

Perhaps, not combining rel IsoSLG and BA, but setting a cut off point is the better move. Like a list of all players who were x% better than the league in both departments. I wouldn't combine them directly because they don't relate on a 1:1 scale per se.

Would you combine them at all? I realize they're measured on different scales...

I understand your point about walks. With respect to K's, I think they're fundamentally important in evaluating skill, not value. Yes, they're also a part of plate discipline, but they're part bat controll (well, as are walks, obviously).

The greatest hitters of each generation tend to have the highest power, highest averages, and the lowest K rates and best K/BB ratios.

Think of Frank Thomas before injury and decline. Wow, was he a joy. Through 2000 he had an OPS+ of 168 but only 831 K's vs. 1188 walks. It was sick that a guy hitting for that kind of average, with that kind of power was only fanning 75 times a year...

Bonds since 2000- enough said. His K rates were sick, because his reflexes got that much better and he never swung at a bad pitch- and never missed on pitches that were in or extremely close to the zone. I remember West Coast Orange and Black posting info about the number of actual swings he had taken in relation to his power numbers one year. It was absolutely mind blowing.

Albert Pujols has come extremely close to having the same number of homers and strikeouts in a season, while hitting .330-.360 every year.

Joe Dimaggio. You know that line.

Ted Williams is the best example in baseball history. I can't believe it was possible for a modern player to hit .344 with 521 homers, 2021 walks, and only 709 strikeouts. Forget all the other stats- those sheer talent- the perfect symbiosis of eye, contact, and raw power- that created that bottom- line is beyond me. Hell, Ruth averaged 86 K's per 162/G vs. Teddy's miniscule50 (and it was easier in Ruth's day not to strike out, to boot).

I realize plate discipline is inextricably bound to hitting in most cases, but there are guys like Dick Allen, Sam Crawford, and Joe Dimaggio who didn't draw walks that well at all, really, but were just incredible hitters for power and average.

I suppose it comes down to how one defines "plate discipline", as well.

I'd like to be able to quantify raw hitting. Allen had a terrible K/BB ratio and didn't draw that many walks (in comparison to most of the greatest hitters ever) but could anyone really argue he wasn't close to an all time great in terms of actually hitting the ball? There are other examples that are probably better that you could come up with, but you see where I'm going, D.

[SABR Matt]

I think rather than ignoring walks and glorifying Ks...you should be looking at K/BB ratio as a skill tool like Ron Shandler does.

[stevebogus]

If you want to use statistics as a measuring tool it helps to define exactly what you are trying to measure. After that you can determine if a particular stat or combination of stats is useful.

So, what skill do we really want to measure? I think batting skill can be divided into a group of overlapping skills:

1. The ability to make contact.
2. Strike zone judgement, or the abilty to recognize which pitches will be balls and strikes.
3. Power. Does the ball jump off the bat? Mostly this represents bat speed, but the weight of the bat is also a consideration.
4. Swing type. Does the batter predominantly hit flyballs or groundballs, pull the ball or hit to all fields.
5. Strategy, or the use of the above skills in an intelligent manner. This could also cover making in-game adjustments and specific skills such as hitting behind the runner.

To measure #1 (contact ability) you need to know how often a batter swings and misses. This has been tracked for at least 20 years, but is not always made available to the general public. Contact ability is affected by strike zone judgement. A batter who has difficulty identifying whether a pitch is in the strike zone or not may find himself swinging at pitches which are more difficult to hit.

Measurement of #2 (strike zone judgement) is tricky, as it is not always possible to know when a batter swings at a "ball". In general, players who possess good strike zone judgement will have favorable strikeout-to-walk ratios. That does not always translate into high walk totals. Hitters with a high contact rate who attack pitches early in the count may not get to ball four very often, even if they have excellent strike zone judgement.

Measurement of #3 (power) is fairly simple. Home run rate is a very good indicator of power. However, some batters hit the ball very hard but do not produce many flyballs. Those hitters normally have high BABIP rates due to large numbers of line drives and hot grounders that make it through the infield quickly.

Measurements relating to #4 (swing type) are available for the years covered by Retrosheet. This may not be exactly what you mean when talking about "skill", but whether a batter hits flyballs or grounders has a large impact on his batting stats.

#5, or a batter's strategy, concerns the application of all his other skills. Does the batter prefer to swing early or take lots of pitches? Does he cut down his swing to protect the plate with two strikes? Will he chase pitches out of the strike zone (even when he knows they are not strikes) when pitchers are trying to pitch around him? These things probably have as big an impact on a batter's stats as any of his other skills. But I'm not sure how any of this can be "measured". A lot can be inferred form a player's stats, but I don't think it is always possible to reach firm conclusions in this area.


My thoughts on a few of the players mentioned in this thread:

Frank Thomas: his BA dropped off a cliff when he became more of a flyball hitter. This began in 1998, before he started having injury problems. My guess is he was having a problem with his swing that season, but I also believe his focus was away from the game (having marital problems culminating in divorce). I'm a longtime White Sox fan, and in 1998 it was obvious that he was hitting the ball in the air more often. The injuries began to take a toll in 1999. Today he is one of the most extreme flyball hitters, but that is not the way he hit in his prime.

Dick Allen: He actually had good strike zone judgement. He came up in the era of the expanded strike zone. Drew 67 walks in his rookie season, when Santo led the league with 86. Allen just missed the top five. Injuries kept him out of the lineup a lot after 1965. Led the AL with 99 walks in 1972. He always struck out a lot, but that is because his swing did not lend itself to "bat control". He used a heavy bat (40 oz.) and hit the ball extremely hard when he made contact. Wasn't a real big guy but had as much power as anyone in the game.

Joe DiMaggio: Walked over twice as often as he struck out. A player who had an exceptional ability to put the ball in play and hit it hard. Unlike Ted Williams, who would not swing at a bad pitch and would go deep into the count, Joe D probably liked to swing early in the count, not giving a pitcher the chance to walk him.