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After watching an episode of Numb3ers the other night, I was wondering whether it would be possible to calculate using sabermetrics, whether a player was a roid user or not. This was the central line of the plot, and no matter what calculations I put together, I can't seem to do it. Can anyone here help me??
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I hate the fact that people say "he's on steroids." Oh, really? What kind of steroids? Deca-Durabolin? Winstrol? Anavar? Dianabol?
There are many, MANY types of steroids used for multiple purposes. Hitters and position players might use one type, relievers another, and starters still yet a different package. Some help you add LBM extremely fast, some help maintain integrity, some are injectable, some are orally available.
So, without actually understanding what the many types of steroids do, no, you couldn't figure out if a player was using them.Owner of Driveline Baseball - Seattle, WA
How do you know what player is on what?
It's pointless, really.Owner of Driveline Baseball - Seattle, WAComment
No. No. No.
(For some reason, I'm not allowed to post something with only 3 characters... minimum 10, so that's why I posted it 3 times.)Comment
Bill James himself just did an article last week on his new site Bill James Online. He starts by presenting a hierarchy of departure from the norm. The hierarchy is 1) Criminal, 2) Suspicious, 3) Unusual and 4) Normal. He states that we certainly cannot conclude based on statistical evidence that a player has engaged in criminal activity and he regards it as "reckless" to suggest that a player's statistics are suspicious.
He then proceeds to present a new series of 10 formulas called U scores. The "U" stands for unusual. Basically they attempt to score seasons on how unusual they are. I think that the formulas can be separated into two groups. The first group is things that are just statistically odd, like having more walks than hits. The next group I would categorize as capturing seasons that are out of whack with a players previous accomplishments, either in general or for his age. It's this second group that kind of hints at the subject of this thread.
At the end, he totals everything up and presents a top 25 list of players with the most unusual careers. There is a clear #1, which I'm sure most could guess. The rest of the list is a mix of HOFers, confessed PED users, people who have talked to congress, some who are probably bordering on suspicious and other assorted oddballs.
Oddly, Jose Canseco doesn't make the list. I guess if you use from day one then nothing ever seems out of line.Comment
I'm a huge fan of Bill James, but I'm guessing he didn't read this post on Kermit The Blog about how suspicious Bonds' 2001 season was.Bill James himself just did an article last week on his new site Bill James Online. He starts by presenting a hierarchy of departure from the norm. The hierarchy is 1) Criminal, 2) Suspicious, 3) Unusual and 4) Normal. He states that we certainly cannot conclude based on statistical evidence that a player has engaged in criminal activity and he regards it as "reckless" to suggest that a player's statistics are suspicious.Comment
Sorry, I was trying to respect Bill's right to try and turn a dime. I'm still not convinced that it's worth my $3/month, when I can read everybody else's stuff for free. Anyways, here's the list...
1 Barry Bonds 1974
2 Mark McGwire 803
3 Sammy Sosa 521
4 Babe Ruth 511
5 Roy Thomas 393
6 Yank Robinson 323
7 Max Bishop 303
8 Andres Galarraga 293
9 Ken Griffey Jr. 293
10 Luis Gonzalez 288
11 Rogers Hornsby 288
12 Cy Williams 283
13 Jack Crooks 278
14 Rafael Palmeiro 268
15 Brady Anderson 262
16 Hank Aaron 246
17 Eddie Yost 244
18 Willie Keeler 240
19 Gene Tenace 237
20 Ken Caminiti 237
21 Albert Belle 237
22 Jack Clark 228
23 Edgar Martinez 227
24 Willie McCovey 222
25 Juan Gonzalez 212
BTW, I saw the NUMB3RS episode last year and found it amusing. As I recall, the stats-geek creates his formula to get an edge in fantasy baseball. But word gets out that he is able to identify players who have used PED's and a suspected player ends up murdered.
So let's be careful out there guys.
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