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  • Stats question

    Ok, I'm not a big time stats guy. I know the common stuff like BA, ERA, stuff like that, but OPS+ and some of the others I've seen here are out of my league. I've heard talks of stats showing how many wins a hitter is worth (or something to that effect). My question is this: Does that take into account the hitters batting before them in the lineup?

    Or I guess I'm really asking if there is something out there that adjusts a guys RBI totals by the OPB of the guys in front of him?

    Seems to me that a guy like A-Rod or Manny have more RBI opportunities than guys on teams with low OBP like the White Sox or D-Backs last year.

  • #2
    If you want adjusted RBIs, try this (plus the glossary): http://baseballprospectus.com/statis...php?cid=204019

    If you want to start ignoring RBIs altogether in favor of linear weights, that would be even better.
    Beyond The Boxscore (still with some lime)

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    • #3
      First things first....forget RBI. RBI is a stat that has almost nothing to do with a players hitting ability....it is almost entirely a team offense stat. Meaning, you are correct, Manny and ARod do have more chances.

      OPS is simply slugging + on base %. OPS+ is how a player's OPS compares to his league, with 100 being average. So, Adam Dunn's 136 OPS+ last year means he was 36% better than average. In terms of batting average, that would correspond to Dunn hitting .362 in the NL last season. I only use BA because you said you're familiar with it, as it is almost as bad a stat as RBI.

      OPS itself isn't perfect, but it is useful enough to be a starting point. Generally, real stats guys use linear weights, which are based upon assigning a value to every event....singles are worth about .4 runs for example. Then, over the course of a season, a player's value can be determined, with 10 runs equalling roughly one win. This is usually compared to the league average player.....and it gets more complicated from there.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by skyking162 View Post
        If you want to start ignoring RBIs altogether in favor of linear weights, that would be even better.
        linear weights?
        Other than seeing that on here a few times, I've never even heard of linear weights. Is there a site somewhere than I can go to educate myself about it? By educate, I mean more than just a site with player stats. Looking for something that'll break it down and explain it to me.

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        • #5
          Nutriaitch,

          This is now the best place to start learning about just about anything related to sabermetrics. Probably more than you ever wanted to know.

          http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/

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          • #6
            http://tangotiger.net has some fantastic articles. I'd start with "How Are Runs Really Created" -- it's a 3 part series. The math might be tough to follow the first 10 times through, but you'll get the idea without the details.
            Beyond The Boxscore (still with some lime)

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            • #7
              Originally posted by baseballPAP View Post
              First things first....forget RBI. RBI is a stat that has almost nothing to do with a players hitting ability....it is almost entirely a team offense stat. Meaning, you are correct, Manny and ARod do have more chances.
              I find it amazing that we rate hitters based not on actual run production, but of their rate of bases produced per out, then we turn around and do the exact opposite for pitchers-rating them on runs allowed rather than bases allowed per out.

              There are reasons for it of course, that the pitcher is responsible for all events.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by skyking162 View Post
                http://tangotiger.net has some fantastic articles. I'd start with "How Are Runs Really Created" -- it's a 3 part series. The math might be tough to follow the first 10 times through, but you'll get the idea without the details.
                Thanks for the kind words.

                I agree that the 3-part Runs Created article is the best place to start.
                Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                • #9
                  Try P/E Average

                  If you're looking for a streamlined, equitable, and telling statistic to measure a hitter's value, try P/E Average. For more about P/E Average, go to www.statonebaseball.com
                  Visit www.statonebaseball.com to learn why traditional statistics are ultimately flawed...and why P/E Averages are not!

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                  • #10
                    Craig, if the quote below is accurate, get ready for a pounding from the regulars here. This is the same kind of cr-p I was inventing when I was a teenager. Basically, add up all the numbers you can see, divide by something, and voila, a useless metric.

                    This is exactly the kind of thing sabermetrics is against.

                    And, I'm being extremely nice right now.

                    http://www.kansascity.com/baseball/story/563017.html

                    The P/E average is simply a measurement of a player’s production numbers plus efficiency numbers divided by plate appearances.

                    For production numbers, Messmer adds RBIs and runs scored, subtracting home runs to eliminate the overlap. He calls this “net runs.”

                    For efficiency numbers, Messmer adds total bases, walks, hit-by-pitch and steals, subtracting caught stealing. He calls this “complete bases.”

                    The calculation: (net runs + net runs + complete bases) / plate appearances.

                    Messmer says a P/E around .800 or .900 is OK, anything above 1.000 is pretty good, 1.200 is an MVP-type season, and 1.500 is a number reached in a season only 23 times.

                    A-Rod, if you’re curious, had a 1.415 P/E average last year, far and away best in baseball.

                    Is it perfect? Of course not. Just on the surface, Messmer’s stat doesn’t take into account park, league, or era factors, which makes comparisons a little dubious. And with the net runs doubled, P/E is still weighted slightly toward guys in big-time lineups.
                    Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                    • #11
                      Is that 13 or 14 documented separate "inventions" of bases/(PA or outs)? I've lost count...

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                      • #12
                        The amazing thing is that Craig actually got a major publisher to publish his "invention".

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Tango Tiger View Post
                          This is exactly the kind of thing sabermetrics is against.
                          And it's exactly what hinders real analysis from catching on.
                          Beyond The Boxscore (still with some lime)

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Patriot View Post
                            Is that 13 or 14 documented separate "inventions" of bases/(PA or outs)? I've lost count...
                            Ah, but it's the novel introduction of 2*runs produced to the numerator that makes this stat!:disbelief:

                            I actually picked up Craig's book at one of the major bookstores a few weeks back. Of course, after taking a quick look at the details, I put it back down.

                            Honestly, I can't fault Craig for putting together what was probably a labor of love, but I don't think we've broken any new ground here. My first recollection of Total Average (one of the early documented inventions) is summer of 1981.

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                            • #15
                              Good heavens, it never stops.

                              http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...ntroducing-UVI

                              (Total Bases + Walks + HBPs + SB - CS - .25(Bunts + Sac Flies) - GIDP - .1K)/PA

                              This is hailed by its author as "the stat that will revolutionize baseball". He is either a not-so-clever satirist or a fool; my money would be on the latter.

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