Pitch to Manny or Walk?

[GoOrange]

The sensationalist media over at the NY Post and NY Daily News has been ripping into Joe Girardi's decision to pitch to Manny Ramirez in the bottom of the 6th with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd. The Sox were leading the Yanks 2-1.

Many bloggers are falling in line and calling the decision "stupid" as well.

Kevin Youkilis was in the on-deck circle.

Using James Click's criteria from Baseball Between the Numbers (haven't read Tango's book yet), Manny's basic stats weren't superior enough to Youkilis' to justify an intentional walk in that situation.

(I threw up my numbers on my blog at http://pinstripers.blogspot.com)

Looking at Manny's 2005-2007 AVG/OBP/SLG compared to Youkilis didn't meet the criteria for a walk. The numbers with RISP or runners on 2nd and 3rd weren't much different. Youkilis' stats vs. RHP were a little better and in 2007 he outperformed Manny vs righties.

About the only responses I've gotten to my analysis of the situation were typical emotional rather than empirical replies along the lines of "Manny is an all-star, Kevin isn't" without addressing the numbers whatsoever.

Anyone here want to back me up that Joe made the right call in pitching to Ramirez rather than walking him and facing Youkilis? Or does anyone have evidence that Manny should have been walked?

Obviously Manny got a critical hit in the actual game but percentage-wise, what's the better move?

Cheers,
Jeff

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

I would have given him a walk too. But then after him there are two more homerun threats.

[LouGehrig]

There is no "evidence." If the goal were to maintain the 1 run lead, then the chances would be better facing Manny because, as Mussina said, Youkilis is selective and in that situation, and the key is "that situation," he would have swung only at a strike, forcing Mussina to make a good pitch.

Of course, Mussina made a good pitch to Manny, and would have made a good pitch to Youkilis. The answer is, get Mussina out of there and bring in Mariano. Of course, that would never happen. The fact that the game can be won or lost in the fifth or sixth inning doesn't matter in 2008.

[digglahhh]

There is no "evidence." If the goal were to maintain the 1 run lead, then the chances would be better facing Manny because, as Mussina said, Youkilis is selective and in that situation, and the key is "that situation," he would have swung only at a strike, forcing Mussina to make a good pitch.

Not jumping on you, LouG, but the irony is that the counterargument, given here among many other places, is just an unsubstantiated by the evidence. Youkilis doesn't draw walks at a greater rate than Manny does. Yes, Youk has a very good batting eye, but so does Manny! Essentially, they have similar enough walk rates that such an element is also a non-issue.

I would have taken my chances with Youk, personally. But, I don't think it was the an unquestionably terrible move to go after Manny, as it was made out to be either. I lean towards being a numbers guy when making these types of decisions, but sometimes it's hard to stick to those guns. If you are going to argue that you don't want to pitch to Manny in that spot, it's hard to not understand that sentiment, regardless of what the numbers say.

One thing to consider about being a real manager is that the press will jump all over you if act against mainstream wisdom, even if it is wrong, and you get burned. Basically, Girardi could have busted out a copy of Tom's book and it wouldn't have helped him in the press. You deviate from conventional wisdom (or folly as it may actually be), you better succeed, if not you'll get roasted. To me, that would be one of the biggest pains of being a manager.