Frank Thomas and aging.

[Nashboy]

What does the current research show about player aging? Is it the norm that a previously productive hitter like Thomas (+ 21.4 batting runs in 2007) suddenly hit a wall and turn into a pumpkin overnight?

I know that all players after age 27/28 generally start declining slowly over time and eventually reach a point of having little or no value, but is the fall sudden and precipitous as the Jays are intimating?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Thomas didn't have a normal decline phase to his career. He basically crashed after age 32.

Through age 32 (1530 G):
.321/.440/.579, 168 OPS+

After age 32 (737 G)
.262/.377/.516, 132 OPS+

That's is very unusal for a hitter of his caliber. To put it into perspective Thomas' OBP thrugh are 32 is the 6th highest in major league history, higher than Hornsby, Cobb, and Foxx. His OPS+ is 11th all-time through age 32. Through age 32 Thomas was basically a legendary hitter. After age 32 he became a por man's Jim Thome.

[stevebogus]

I don't know if it is normal to "suddenly" become a poor hitter, but eventually all athletes reach the point where they just aren't good enough to compete at the highest level. The problem with Frank Thomas is he is being paid an awful lot of money to hit the ball, and when hitters get into their late 30s teams start worrying that the slump won't end. Frank compounded the issue by griping about losing playing time, which doesn't go over very well with management or teammates.

Let's look at some old hitters in baseball history-

Babe Ruth- At age 39 he was fragile but could still hit, compiling a 161 OPS+ and +39.2 batting runs in 471 PA. The Yankees traded him out of the league, to the Boston Braves. At 40, in limited playing time (just 92 PA) Ruth's BA dropped ~100 points, his OPS+ declined to 118, and he produced +2.6 batting runs. Maybe he could have rebounded, but he had no defensive value and there was no DH rule.

Hank Aaron- At age 39 he hit 40 HR in just 392 AB, OPS+ of 177 and +42 BR. at 40 he fell off to 20 HR in 340 AB, 128 OPS+ and +11.5 BR. He was then traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, a bad team looking for a box office draw. In two seasons at DH he was essentially an average hitter. So, in 2 years Aaron declined from being one of the most productive hitters in baseball to being just average.

Pete Rose- Struggled at the plate at age 39 (1980) but rebounded with a good season at age 40. In that interrupted (by a strike) season Rose hit .325, OPS+ of 119 and +12.7 BR. Not one of his better seasons, but not far off from his typical season. At age 41 he lost 50 points off his BA and never got them back. From 1982 onward his OPS+ was 90, 69, 99, 99, and 61. Rose essentially lost his ability to drive the ball at age 41 and just hung on after that.

Wiilie Mays- Willie's career shifted into a lower gear at age 36. 1966 was the last season he was WILLIE MAYS, from 1967 onward he lost a significant amount of his power and needed lots of time off for injuries, but was still a productive hitter. At age 40 he began taking lots of pitches, drawing huge numbers of walks for the first time in his career. This helped spike his run production up even while his power was declining. In 1972, age 41, Mays began the season in a slump and the Giants had young talent they wanted to use. The New York Mets wanted Willie, so a trade was made. Mays showed that he wasn't quite done yet, playing productively in a part-time role. But in 1973 Willie hit the wall at age 42.

Carl Yastrzemski- An odd career, a mix of monster seasons and ordinary ones. If we ignore his brilliant peak seasons it appears that he just ever-so-slowly faded as he aged. His OPS+ from age 35-43: 111, 120, 125, 112, 108, 116, 95, 110, 106.

Stan Musial- After batting .310 or higher every season of his career through age 37, The Man skidded to .255 at age 38 (OPS+ 106, no earlier year below 134). But the Cardinals didn't give up on him. Musial never regained his previous form, but he battled back, posting OPS+ of 121 and 118 before coming back with a .330 season in 1962, age 41 (OPS+ 137). But Stan struggled in 1963 (OPS+ 101) and then retired.

Some players do seem to "lose it" suddenly while others do a slow fade. But baseball stats are somewhat random. While there may be real causes for slumps it is certainly possible that a player could have a run of bad luck (i.e. hitting the ball right at fielders instead of between them). Without an obvious cause, such as an injury, it is probable that athletic skills just slowly decline over time.

My guess is that Frank Thomas can still hit. The question is whether he will get the opportunity. He still has very good strike zone judgement, and his power is still there. In 16 games he hit 3 HRs and drove in 11 runs. If somebody said your DH would play 160 games, hit 30 HRs and drive in 110 wouldn't you think that was decent production? By focusing on batting average the Jays are looking at the weakest part of Frank Thomas's offensive profile and ignoring his strengths. But that is exactly the type of thing execs do when they are looking to fire somebody.

[stevebogus]

Thomas didn't have a normal decline phase to his career. He basically crashed after age 32.

Through age 32 (1530 G):
.321/.440/.579, 168 OPS+

After age 32 (737 G)
.262/.377/.516, 132 OPS+

That's is very unusal for a hitter of his caliber. To put it into perspective Thomas' OBP thrugh are 32 is the 6th highest in major league history, higher than Hornsby, Cobb, and Foxx. His OPS+ is 11th all-time through age 32. Through age 32 Thomas was basically a legendary hitter. After age 32 he became a por man's Jim Thome.

I don't know that this is "very unusual". In particular slow sluggers historically do not age well, and slow righthanded sluggers generally age worse than lefthanded sluggers. Kiner retired at 32, Foxx was essentially finished at 34. What happened is:

1. Thomas became one of the slowest players in baseball once his foot injuries began. The foot injuries also took away some of his power.
2. Thomas became much more of a flyball hitter as he aged.

Those two factors greatly reduced Thomas' ability to hit for average.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I don't know that this is "very unusual". In particular slow sluggers historically do not age well, and slow righthanded sluggers generally age worse than lefthanded sluggers. Kiner retired at 32, Foxx was essentially finished at 34. What happened is:

1. Thomas became one of the slowest players in baseball once his foot injuries began. The foot injuries also took away some of his power.
2. Thomas became much more of a flyball hitter as he aged.

Those two factors greatly reduced Thomas' ability to hit for average.

I'm not sure Kiner nor Foxx are good comps for Thomas. Kiner retired because of back problems and Foxx was a severe alcoholic. But I do agree Thomas' foot injuries played a role in his decline. He did have great seasons in '03 (42 HRs, 105 RBI, 156 OPS+) and '06 (39 HRs, 114 RBI, 140 OPS+) but he posted medicore BAs. After age 32 Thomas lost the ability to hit .320. and not all slow sluggers age poorly. Jim Thome is aging rather well.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I would be interested in seeing Thomas' spray charts for this year and last year. I think maybe he has gone away from what made him such a great hitter...going the other way. He's always been an inside-out hitter, which enables him to see the pitch longer before deciding whether to commit. Maybe the pressure to perform as an aging hitter has caused him to try and pull far too many balls.

[weskelton]

Here's the Big Hurt's 10 most comparable players through age 39 on baseball-reference.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/fr...page=39&age=39

Among this group, I would suggest that Frank Robinson and Willie McCovey would be other good examples of players that played a good part of there 30's as a mere shell as their former selves. In McCovey's case, he also missed a good amount of time due to injury.

[SABR Matt]

I personally think Thomas is having his typical sucky April. I don't think he's done yet...it's IMPOSIBLE to have his sky high BB/K ratio and be "done" as a hitter...just like the key for me that Richie Sexson is back on track is his BB/K, the same holds for Thomas. I am hoping against hope that the Mariners take the risk and sign him up.

[weskelton]

I agree with Matt. I seriously doubt that Thomas is no longer able to contibute with the bat. I believe that Toronto's actions are mostly financial. Now, we do live in a world where Barry Bonds can't find work, so "done" may have new criteria. But Thomas does come with somewhat less baggage.

[SABR Matt]

Indeed...steroid free, generally well liked by teammates, and a world-class ego (but not the kind of world class ego that screws team chemistry).

Thomas would be a great pick-up for anyone in need of a DH.

[Ubiquitous]

If putting up a 132 OPS+ in yours mid 30's is "crashing" then I would hope all players crash like that.

I would say that Frank had more typical aging pattern for someone his size then most people think. We have gotten to the point where we expect old guys to be the best hitters in the game and to hit like they did when they were in their 20's. That isn't really the case for most non steroid players out there. Frank got old and when he got he got injured, that is obviously going to impact his numbers.


Also about 3 or 4 years ago Frank came out and said that he was changing his swinging and was focusing on the long ball and not worrying about his average anymore.

[Ubiquitous]

I would be interested in seeing Thomas' spray charts for this year and last year. I think maybe he has gone away from what made him such a great hitter...going the other way. He's always been an inside-out hitter, which enables him to see the pitch longer before deciding whether to commit. Maybe the pressure to perform as an aging hitter has caused him to try and pull far too many balls.

Actually going the other way has been his problem. In his "normal" years Frank goes to left field like one expects a lot while going the other way is a clear third in the 5 OF categories listed by BRef. His "down" years have a higher concentration of balls hit to right then in his up years. Now obviously when he is hitting to the left more often he is hitting for more power and his numbers go up.

[brett]

Well, if you prefer:

there are basically 2 things that can cause a decline in a hitter (excluding leg men):

1) decreased ability to make consistent contact and

2) decreased batting/slugging on balls in play


Thomas has had both.

His strikeouts rose after age 32 and I think that what happened in part was that pitchers came to go after him inside rather than pitch around him as much and this may have resulted from #2, fewer of his fly balls carried to the wall etc.

I think that power hitters, like power pitchers start to lose leg strength, and Thomas just didn't have the other skills to compensate.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If putting up a 132 OPS+ in yours mid 30's is "crashing" then I would hope all players crash like that.

Well, "crash" is relative term, ubiq. From where Thomas was through age 32 to how he performed after age 32 is a significant drop. What would you call a 59 point drop in BA, a 63 point drop in OBP, and a 63 point drop in slugging percentage?

I would say that Frank had more typical aging pattern for someone his size then most people think. We have gotten to the point where we expect old guys to be the best hitters in the game and to hit like they did when they were in their 20's. That isn't really the case for most non steroid players out there. Frank got old and when he got he got injured, that is obviously going to impact his numbers.

But Thomas's decline started at age 33 not age 39. I wouldn't necesaarily call age 33 "old".

Also about 3 or 4 years ago Frank came out and said that he was changing his swinging and was focusing on the long ball and not worrying about his average anymore.

I wonder if he realized he could no long hit for a high BA and hit for power at the same time?

[Sultan_1895-1948]

My bad. I keep thinking that something will register. :disbelief:

ps. And make that "into their 30's" as of this year...still chillin' in center, relying on experience more than ever.