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How many runs does poor defense add?

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  • How many runs does poor defense add?

    If you took all errors, passed balls and wild pitches out of the game and assume they never happened that all errors/pb/wp were fielded cleanly how many less runs per game would that be worth?

    Example:
    If a team with an average defense allowed 4.5 runs per game, how many runs per game would it allow given the circumstances listed above?

    vr, Xeifrank
    Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
    http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

    Author of DodgerSims Blog
    http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

  • #2
    A WP and PB adds .25 runs, an error adds .50 runs, more or less. Go to Retrosheet or b-r.com and find out how often each happens per game.
    Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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    • #3
      Simply subtracting the linear weight values of the PB's and WP's works, as they simply become just another pitch. However, by assuming that an error is otherwise fielded cleanly, aren't we implying that it becomes an out (at least in most cases). In this case, it seems that not only do you need to subtract the value of the error, but also add the value of an out.

      error ~= .5
      out = ~= -.1

      error -> out = -.1 - .5 = -.6

      Does that make sense?

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      • #4
        Yes, you are correct.

        I was presuming 0.75 runs for the error on the batter events (turning out to hit), and 0.25 runs for the error on the runner events (getting an extra base). 0.50 was a nice round number.
        Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Tango Tiger View Post
          A WP and PB adds .25 runs, an error adds .50 runs, more or less. Go to Retrosheet or b-r.com and find out how often each happens per game.
          Thanks, but I am not familiar with how to mine data from b-r.com to find such events and how often they happen per game. Anyone care to help explain how to do this?
          vr, Xei
          Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
          http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

          Author of DodgerSims Blog
          http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

          Comment


          • #6
            Look under "freq" to get the frequency of each event:
            http://www.tangotiger.net/bsrexpl.html
            Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Tango Tiger View Post
              Look under "freq" to get the frequency of each event:
              http://www.tangotiger.net/bsrexpl.html
              Thanks, but i don't see anything called "freq" at the b-r.com website.
              vr, Xei
              Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
              http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

              Author of DodgerSims Blog
              http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • #8
                on this (http://www.tangotiger.net/bsrexpl.html) particular link, "freq" is resides as the 5th column.
                Attached Files
                "you don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. just get people to stop reading them." -ray bradbury

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                • #9
                  Right, "freq" is on the webpage I pointed you to. That tells you how often each event occurred.
                  Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Tango Tiger View Post
                    Right, "freq" is on the webpage I pointed you to. That tells you how often each event occurred.
                    Ok, it says an error occurred 31270 times. I guess the next step is to calculate how many games per team these 31270 errors occurred in. Which could get messy if there was any expansion in there.
                    vr, Xei
                    Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
                    http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

                    Author of DodgerSims Blog
                    http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      don't need to break it down by tema...I think that table also shows the number of runs scored in that period and the total number of games...you can get the current RS/G and the take the runs and subtract out the bad defense elements and recalculate.

                      You're going to find that it's somewhere between 4 and 7% depending on the league...a 5 RPG league would reduce to something like a 4.75 RPG league.

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                      • #12
                        Since the table doesn't have these details...

                        1974-1990

                        G = 69,128
                        R = 295,349
                        R/G = 4.2725

                        So,

                        295349 Original Runs
                        - .25 * 4980 BK
                        - .276 * 5021 PB
                        - .279 * 18371 WP
                        - .481 * 31270 E
                        + (-.098) * 31270 E -> outs
                        --------------------------------------
                        269487.36 Perfect Defense Runs

                        Perfect Defense
                        R/G total = 3.8984
                        R/G saved = .3741 (8.76%)

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by weskelton View Post
                          Since the table doesn't have these details...

                          1974-1990

                          G = 69,128
                          R = 295,349
                          R/G = 4.2725

                          So,

                          295349 Original Runs
                          - .25 * 4980 BK
                          - .276 * 5021 PB
                          - .279 * 18371 WP
                          - .481 * 31270 E
                          + (-.098) * 31270 E -> outs
                          --------------------------------------
                          269487.36 Perfect Defense Runs

                          Perfect Defense
                          R/G total = 3.8984
                          R/G saved = .3741 (8.76%)
                          Thanks.
                          vr, Xeifrank
                          Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
                          http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

                          Author of DodgerSims Blog
                          http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            A tad higher than I thought.

                            But that's because it's 1972-1990...lower RS/G...same defense. In the 90s it's been a lower percentage because the defense hasn't gotten worse but the hitting has gotten better.

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                            • #15
                              Mat, remember though that defense is not just about errors, and erros are not just about fielders.

                              A bad defense will give up more hits as well as more errors, and "bad" scorers will award hits on what should to be errors, making the fielding pcts better and ERAs worse than what they should be.

                              I recently started a study or reached on error rates from the RetroSheet play by play. There was a steady decline of errors as a pct of all runners reaching base safely from the late 70's to early 90's. About 1/3 of pre-1980 reached on errors are now called hits.
                              Baseball Prospectus articles
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