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Better season, lower OPS+

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  • Better season, lower OPS+

    Okay, let's take a look at the polarizing Adam Dunn's 2004 season in comparison so the 2004 season of Bobby Abreu, whose numbers please both the SABR and traditional crowds.

    Dunn: .266/.388/.569 OPS: .956 OPS+ 152*

    Abreu: .301/.428/.544 OPS: .971 OPS+ 149**

    *Great American PF: 92
    **Citizen's Bank PF: 101

    Abreu had 713 PA and Dunn had 681

    In 32 more PA, Abreu had 22 more hits and actually had 19 more walks.

    I understand that Dunn coming out above Abreu in the OPS+ is because of the Park Factor (which I don't really agree with because G.A.BP is good place to hit, especially for Dunn- the PF one year later was 106, Citizen's Bank jumps 7 points too, which really shows how the teams who play at the park determine the park factor, but that's another debate.)

    Here's my question though, why is it even close?

    Abreu beats him in just about every raw stat, including OBP, BA, RC...everything except for SLG (-25) and HR (-16), though he was +13 in doubles and all that should be taken into account in the SLG anyway.

    Abreu also stole 40 bases at an 88% success rate and is a better defender, this is just about the stats.

    I thought about this because of the debate that arose in the Gehrig/Thomas thread about whether you could be a better hitter with lower numbers. Now Abreu was certainly better and the numbers back that up. But I don't understand why it is even close here, could this be a case of the numbers not bearing out how much better one guy was than another?
    Last edited by digglahhh; 03-09-2006, 08:03 AM.
    THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

    In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

  • #2
    You already answered why its even close and that is the park factor. Adam Dunn league average with PF is .330/.421 and Abreu's is .343/.439. If you simply compare the two players against league average hitters (pitchers excluded) it comes out to Abreu 150 OPS+ and Dunn 143 OPS+.

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    • #3
      Besides the problem of Park Factor, using OPS is not nearly as good a measure of rate of performance as using a modified OPS which weights OBP at a higher value than SLG. I use (1.8 times OBP) + SLG but good arguments have been made for multipliers ranging from 1.5 to 2. Using 1.8, Abreu's modified OPS of 1.314 is appropriately ahead of Dunn's modified OPS of 1.267, although they both had very good seasons. I never adjust these numbers for PF's for multiple reasons that I have discussed in other posts. This raw number can be converted to a normalized scale like OPS+, but if I do so I use a system based on the number of standard deviations above the mean rather than a straight percentage.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Ubiquitous
        You already answered why its even close and that is the park factor. Adam Dunn league average with PF is .330/.421 and Abreu's is .343/.439. If you simply compare the two players against league average hitters (pitchers excluded) it comes out to Abreu 150 OPS+ and Dunn 143 OPS+.
        Right, but just viscerally, that even seems to close. Abreu seems to be far better. Seems like a lot of difference for a mere 7 points. If Abreu had the 143 and Dunn had the 150, I think Abreu's other skills would be enough to put him ahead of Dunn as an overall player.

        I have a hard time making adjustments like that seeing as how I don't subscribe to any of the total player metrics. They are flawed, IMO, but at least they are consistent. The numbers may "want" certain types of players to be better than others but they don't have biases toward individual players like I might.
        THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

        In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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        • #5
          To me 7 points seems like a lot, as to other stuff well OPS doesn't measure baserunning and defense. It simply measures what one does in the batters box.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Ubiquitous
            To me 7 points seems like a lot,
            It is only 15 points in raw OPS, only a 1.5% difference, and that translates to 7 points of unadjusted relative OPS...that doesn't seem like 7 points mean a whole lot when you look at it like that.

            I mean once you've already distanced yourself a lot, it gets harder to distance yourself even further, I get that, but still...
            Last edited by digglahhh; 03-09-2006, 09:25 AM.
            THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

            In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

            Comment


            • #7
              I finally figured out a quick and easy way to use lg averages in a database (well guicker then before)and I looked at all players with at least 550 PA from 1954 to now and guess who has the lowest OPS+ in that group? Now I should mention these are not park factored.





              Who did you say?


              Did you guess perhaps a light hitting SS?


              Well you would be wrong, the answer is Billy Ripken in 1988 had the lowest OPS in 52 seasons of play at an incredible 46 OPS+.

              Ozzie Smith and Mike Caruso are close behind at 48 OPS+, Neifi Perez comes in 4th with a 50 OPS+

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              • #8
                Abreu had more winshares than dunn in 2004.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ubiquitous
                  I finally figured out a quick and easy way to use lg averages in a database (well guicker then before)and I looked at all players with at least 550 PA from 1954 to now and guess who has the lowest OPS+ in that group? Now I should mention these are not park factored.





                  Who did you say?


                  Did you guess perhaps a light hitting SS?


                  Well you would be wrong, the answer is Billy Ripken in 1988 had the lowest OPS in 52 seasons of play at an incredible 46 OPS+.

                  Ozzie Smith and Mike Caruso are close behind at 48 OPS+, Neifi Perez comes in 4th with a 50 OPS+
                  What about Rafael Belliard '92, Mario Mendoza '79, Jim Levey '33, Hal Lanier '68, Tommy Thevenow '31, Bob Lillis ...
                  Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                  Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

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                  • #10
                    OPS+ just isn't a very good stat.

                    Abreu: .325 EqA
                    Dunn: .315 EqA

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by RuthMayBond
                      What about Rafael Belliard '92, Mario Mendoza '79, Jim Levey '33, Hal Lanier '68, Tommy Thevenow '31, Bob Lillis ...

                      Somebody didn't read what I said fully.
                      Last edited by Ubiquitous; 03-09-2006, 12:35 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by digglahhh
                        *Great American PF: 92

                        I understand that Dunn coming out above Abreu in the OPS+ is because of the Park Factor (which I don't really agree with because G.A.BP is good place to hit)
                        And therein lies the problem. Who figured the park factor for that bandbox launching pad?
                        Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                        Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BoSox Rule
                          OPS+ just isn't a very good stat.

                          Abreu: .325 EqA
                          Dunn: .315 EqA

                          EqA is basically OPS/3 with a park factor and stolen base metric built in. If OPS+ isn't that good of a stat then neither is EqA.

                          .326*3 is .978. Abreu had a .971 OPS
                          .316*3 is .948. Dunn had a .956 OPS

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by RuthMayBond
                            And therein lies the problem. Who figured the park factor for that bandbox launching pad?
                            The first year it was open homers were flying out of there, but since then the last two years they have been flying out of there at a more moderate rate.

                            First year 22%
                            next Two: 5%

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                            • #15
                              My real question is, am I the only one who doesn't think any of these stats really do justice to how much better Abreu was than Dunn?

                              If you agree that the gap between them was greater than the stats indicate, what is it about the figuring of the numbers that is responsible for the discrepency? Either something Abreu does is undervalued or something Dunn does was overvalued. Forget about the PFs for a second and use the raw numbers.

                              Can somebody post their win shares, please?

                              If Matt is around let's see their PCA

                              OPS:

                              Abreu: .971
                              Dunn .956

                              Eqa:

                              Abreu: .325
                              Dunn: .315*

                              * and if there's an SB component here, how does Abreu not blow Dunn away?


                              I mean, if you determine who is good and how good they are strcitly by these numbers then this is going to be an exercise in circular logic. But doesn't some of you guys' baseball instincts tell you that Abreu was far better than Dunn?
                              THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                              In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                              Comment

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