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  • Home run totals

    I just finished a first copy of a study on recalculating home run totals.

    Find it at http://sportparks.org under new additions. it is the first entry next to 3/06 and is titles "Recalculating a tainted record"

    If you have some time, read it and tell me what you think (especially the SABR guys who have much more experience at doing this a lot better than I do)
    http://capitalfrontiers.com

  • #2
    Okay first thing I noted. You stated that in 1932 they made the balls lighter and home runs rose by 15%. I don't the 15% rise, nor do I see a kind of relationship that can be directly tied to the heaviness of a ball. On top of that I think we somebody versed in physics to break out the slide ruler and do the calculations. Just because its lighter doesn't necessarily mean it will travel farther.

    Second thing integration. Integration is not a one sided affair. If the league is getting better then that means that they are also getting better on defense as well. There not all DH's.

    I think the pros and cons of the extra games has been fought before, its an issue some would agree with you on and some would disagree with you.

    The PF rating I disagree with becuase in this study you are not measuring runs but home runs. HRFactors can vary greatly from a PF. Nor is handeness factored in as well, or what kind of hitter one is. Both again have major impacts on level of difficulty a ballpark.
    A question also how did you figure out the park factors?

    Nor do I really agree with adjusting ones homer totals based on other years of that players career. Too many variables involved in a season to make that one stand up.

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    • #3
      Never heard the ball being changed in 1932. What was no secret was the NL ball being changed for the 1930 season. Articles appeared in the big newspapers around 1931-32 detailing how the NL owners at the winter meeting in 1929 decided to make ball changes to boost offense. Some claim that new ball was actually snuck in to the NL late in the 1929 season.

      We have no idea if these were the only changes but this is what the NL owners said they did. Nothing about the ball being lighter but a thinner cover and lower seams. Don't know what this would do to the flight of the ball but the change did bring complaints from a number of pitchers early in the 1930 season. They claimed the cover being tighter and the seams lower made the ball more difficult to grip, to get stuff on the ball.

      Well something happened in 1930, no way could a whole league "just happen " to take off so dramatically.

      -------------- Home runs-------Ba.--------
      1930------------892----------.303
      1931------------493----------.277

      It was decided that the 1930 ball was too live so the NL owners decided to go back to the old ball, thicker cover and higher seams and you can see the drop in those two stats, NL back to the real world in 1931.

      I don't believe there was ever a season in modern times where the entire league batted for .300 or better.

      3903 extra base hit in 1930. There was only one other season between 1930 and 1968 in the NL when there was more extra base hits. That was in 1962 when there were 3977 EBH's and there were more teams in the leagues in that season.
      Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 03-13-2006, 08:53 PM.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Ubiquitous
        Okay first thing I noted. You stated that in 1932 they made the balls lighter and home runs rose by 15%.

        News to me. In '26 they introduced the cushioned cork center ball, and offense dropped that year in both leagues. It picked back up, and by '30 it reached ridiculous levels, especially in the NL. So it '31 the NL introduced a heavier ball with raised seams and a thicker cover. The NL batting average dropped to .277 from .303, and the homers dropped 45%. Nothing was done after, and by '41, averages were back to where they'd been in 1919. How does '32 play into this?

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        • #5
          At some point in the mid 30's the AL also adopted the NL ball, I forget the exact year. We talked about in a previous thread I believe.

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          • #6
            Some changes, 1930s.
            Attached Files

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            • #7
              That Foxx and Greenburg fall off the list completely makes me wonder about the math of the article--Foxx did reach 50 twice but it doesn't seem to matter.

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              • #8
                Let me try this one again, reduced in size. I hope.
                Attached Files

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3
                  Some changes, 1930s.
                  Could you please make that bigger Joe. Just can't quite make out the words

                  Good info

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
                    Could you please make that bigger Joe. Just can't quite make out the words

                    Good info
                    Finally getting it right, from too small to too big to, I think OK.

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