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  • Most common MLB final score

    I don't know if this has been covered in other threads and I don't know the answer to this but is there any data on what is the most common final score in MLB?

    My personal guess is 5-2.

  • #2
    My guess: either 4-3 or 3-2.
    Click here to see my autographed 8x10 collection

    Comment


    • #3
      My guess...

      With teams averaging between 4 and 5 runs per game and a 4-4 game impossible to come by, I am going to go with 5-4 as the most common score, followed by 5-3, 6-4, 4-3 etc... Perhaps in a lower run environment era it would be 4-3.
      vr, Xei
      Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
      http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

      Author of DodgerSims Blog
      http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • #4
        AutographCollector nailed it.

        I queried all of the Retrosheet gamelogs from 1900-2006. Here are the 10 most common scores in order of frequency...

        3-2
        4-3
        2-1
        5-4
        4-2
        3-1
        5-3
        6-5
        5-2
        4-1

        The reason Xeifrank's logic doesn't work ), is that run scoring does not follow a normal distribution. In a 5 run/game environment, neither 5 nor 4 are the most common number of runs scored. The reason is that you can't score less than zero, but you can certainly score more than 10.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Dougman59 View Post
          I don't know if this has been covered in other threads and I don't know the answer to this but is there any data on what is the most common final score in MLB?

          My personal guess is 5-2.
          From 1876 -2007:

          Code:
          Winning      Losing
           Score        Score         Count
          ==================================
             3            2           10487
             4            3           10076
             2            1            8553
             5            4            7934
             4            2            6710
             3            1            6084
             5            3            5826
             6            5            5788
             5            2            5500
             4            1            5326
             6            3            4526
             1            0            4354
             6            4            4318
             5            1            4302
             6            2            4179
             2            0            3881
             7            6            3746
             3            0            3725
             7            3            3461
             6            1            3291
             7            4            3282
             4            0            3116
             7            2            3067
             7            5            2960
             5            0            2539
          Dave Kent

          Comment


          • #6
            Dave, can you show since 1919, and since 1993?
            Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

            Comment


            • #7
              Clearly...bullpens are extremely important if that distribution holds in the bullpen era...seems more common that games are close than that they are not...more common by quite a lot.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Tango Tiger View Post
                Dave, can you show since 1919, and since 1993?
                Code:
                Since 1919:
                
                Winning      Losing
                 Score        Score         Count
                ==================================
                   3            2            8387
                   4            3            8187
                   2            1            6713
                   5            4            6468
                   4            2            5326
                   3            1            4834
                   5            3            4731
                   6            5            4723
                   5            2            4420
                   4            1            4209
                   6            3            3598
                   6            4            3493
                   5            1            3369
                   6            2            3284
                   1            0            3171
                   7            6            3052
                   2            0            2888
                   3            0            2830
                   7            3            2753
                   7            4            2597
                   6            1            2590
                   7            2            2433
                   4            0            2395
                   7            5            2346
                   5            0            1945
                Code:
                Since 1933:
                   
                Winning      Losing
                 Score        Score         Count
                ==================================
                   3            2            7487
                   4            3            7311
                   2            1            6018
                   5            4            5714
                   4            2            4771
                   3            1            4325
                   5            3            4244
                   6            5            4138
                   5            2            3959
                   4            1            3771
                   6            3            3219
                   6            4            3096
                   5            1            3010
                   6            2            2903
                   1            0            2841
                   7            6            2666
                   2            0            2599
                   3            0            2558
                   7            3            2448
                   7            4            2297
                   6            1            2293
                   4            0            2187
                   7            2            2142
                   7            5            2092
                   7            1            1728
                Dave Kent

                Comment


                • #9
                  Since 1993...

                  Code:
                  win  lose    count(*)    freq%
                  4	3	1725	4.969606177
                  3	2	1669	4.808274034
                  5	4	1530	4.407824609
                  2	1	1262	3.63573507
                  4	2	1185	3.413903374
                  6	5	1171	3.373570338
                  5	3	1157	3.333237302
                  5	2	994	2.86364553
                  3	1	961	2.768574803
                  6	3	931	2.68214687
                  4	1	875	2.520814727
                  6	4	872	2.512171934
                  7	6	829	2.388291896
                  6	2	785	2.261530927
                  5	1	716	2.06274668
                  7	4	695	2.002247126
                  7	3	673	1.938866642
                  7	5	612	1.763129844
                  6	1	578	1.665178186
                  7	2	577	1.662297254
                  8	3	501	1.44334649
                  2	0	492	1.41741811
                  3	0	492	1.41741811
                  1	0	491	1.414537178
                  Last edited by weskelton; 09-05-2008, 11:38 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Score Frequency by Decade (1900-2007)

                    Code:
                    Rank| 1900  1910  1920  1930  1940  1950  1960  1970  1980  1990  2000
                    ----|-----------------------------------------------------------------
                      1 |  2-1   3-2   3-2   4-3   3-2   3-2   3-2   3-2   3-2   3-2   4-3
                      2 |  3-2   2-1   4-3   3-2   4-3   4-3   4-3   4-3   4-3   4-3   3-2
                      3 |  4-3   4-3   5-4   5-4   2-1   2-1   2-1   2-1   5-4   5-4   5-4
                      4 |  1-0   1-0   2-1   2-1   5-4   5-4   5-4   5-4   2-1   2-1   2-1
                      5 |  3-1   5-4   6-5   6-5   4-2   4-2   3-1   4-2   4-2   4-2   4-2
                      6 |  4-2   4-2   4-2   4-2   3-1   3-1   4-2   3-1   5-3   5-3   6-5
                      7 |  5-4   3-1   5-3   5-3   4-1   6-5   5-3   5-3   3-1   6-5   5-3
                      8 |  2-0   4-1   5-2   3-1   6-5   5-2   4-1   6-5   5-2   5-2   5-2
                      9 |  4-1   2-0   3-1   4-1   5-2   5-3   1-0   5-2   6-5   4-1   3-1
                     10 |  3-0   5-3   4-1   5-2   1-0   4-1   5-2   4-1   4-1   3-1   6-3
                     11 |  5-2   5-2   7-6   6-4   5-3   6-3   6-5   1-0   6-4   6-3   6-4
                     12 |  5-3   3-0   6-2   7-6   5-1   6-4   2-0   5-1   6-3   6-4   4-1
                     13 |  5-1   6-5   6-4   6-3   6-3   6-2   5-1   3-0   5-1   6-2   7-6
                     14 |  6-5   5-1   6-3   6-2   2-0   5-1   3-0   6-3   6-2   7-6   6-2
                     15 |  6-3   6-2   5-1   5-1   6-2   1-0   6-3   2-0   2-0   5-1   5-1
                     16 |  4-0   4-0   7-3   7-3   3-0   2-0   6-4   6-4   1-0   7-3   7-4
                     17 |  6-2   6-3   1-0   1-0   6-4   7-6   4-0   6-2   7-6   7-4   7-3
                     18 |  6-4   6-1   7-4   7-2   4-0   3-0   6-2   4-0   7-3   7-5   6-1
                     19 |  6-1   6-4   6-1   3-0   7-6   7-3   6-1   6-1   6-1   1-0   7-5
                     20 |  5-0   5-0   7-2   7-4   7-3   7-4   7-6   7-3   3-0   7-2   7-2
                     21 |  7-4   7-6   2-0   7-5   7-4   6-1   7-3   7-6   7-2   6-1   3-0
                     22 |  7-2   7-2   8-7   8-7   6-1   7-5   5-0   7-4   7-4   3-0   8-4
                     23 |  7-3   7-4   3-0   2-0   5-0   4-0   7-4   7-2   4-0   2-0   1-0
                     24 |  6-0   7-3   7-5   6-1   7-5   7-2   7-2   5-0   7-5   8-3   2-0
                     25 |  7-1   7-1   8-3   8-4   7-2   5-0   7-5   7-1   5-0   8-7   8-3
                    Dave Kent

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      2008

                      What is it for 2008?
                      Thanks.
                      vr, Xei
                      Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
                      http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

                      Author of DodgerSims Blog
                      http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Great job guys. Nice presentation Dave!

                        Xei: what's the point of knowing 2008? The 2000s is very similar to 1930s. Clearly 2008 will be very similar to the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s, and tehre's little difference in those 3 decades.
                        Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by SABR Matt View Post
                          Clearly...bullpens are extremely important if that distribution holds in the bullpen era...seems more common that games are close than that they are not...more common by quite a lot.
                          Matt,

                          Here's a breakdown of the distribution by margin of victory. I'm comparing 1900- to the "bullpen era", which I tagged at 1970+. While there may be a difference in how the margins are arrived at, there's actually not a great difference in the frequency of the margins.

                          Code:
                          	Since 1900	Since 1970	
                          margin	freq%	cum%	freq%	cum%
                          1	30.27	30.27	29.79	29.79
                          2	18.18	48.45	18.54	48.33
                          3	14.51	62.95	14.78	63.11
                          4	10.99	73.94	11.19	74.3
                          5	 8.02	81.96	 8.07	82.37
                          6	 5.66	87.62	 5.75	88.12
                          7	 3.98	91.6	 4.03	92.15
                          8	 2.83	94.42	 2.82	94.97
                          9	 1.83	96.25	 1.82	96.79
                          10	 1.23	97.47	 1.22	98
                          11	 0.75	98.22	 0.77	98.77
                          12	 0.51	98.73	 0.48	99.25

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Tango Tiger View Post
                            Great job guys. Nice presentation Dave!

                            Xei: what's the point of knowing 2008? The 2000s is very similar to 1930s. Clearly 2008 will be very similar to the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s, and tehre's little difference in those 3 decades.
                            I would like to know for trivia purposes. That ok?
                            vr, Xei
                            Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
                            http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

                            Author of DodgerSims Blog
                            http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by weskelton View Post
                              AutographCollector nailed it.
                              Rock on! Thanks.
                              Click here to see my autographed 8x10 collection

                              Comment

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