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  • #31
    LOL...cool, so you discuss the LI in the book?

    I look forward to reading it.

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    • #32
      I discuss leverage in as a non-mathematical-speak as I could. So, I establish the LI levels with a 3-run, 2-run, 1-run lead in the 8th and 9th innings, as well as how often teams used their ace in a low-leverage situation. Answer: ALOT!
      Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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      • #33
        Oh I definitely agree that closers are badly badly misused...I knew that intuitively before any math got involved...

        but can it be said that an LI of 10 is 5 times more important to a game than an LI of 2 or is it just an ordinal comparative tool and not a linear model?

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        • #34
          Absolutely that 10 has 5 times more impact than 2. Reread the article a few times until you believe it. That's the whole point of LI: it measures the spread of possible outcomes... the gaps. If one has a gap level of 10, and another of 2, then the spread is 5 times wider, and therefore, the events will have 5 times the impact.
          Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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          • #35
            Excellent!

            I just wanted to make sure that was true. I think this is outstanding work and can be used to more accurately analyze the TRUE value of good relief pitching and thus fairly rate relievers on the same level as starters (or at least...as close to the same level as is representative of their true worth)

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            • #36
              My Leverage Index has now been incorporated here:

              http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?d...ue%20Jays&dh=0

              You can also look at each team's season-to-date totals.
              Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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              • #37
                Tom, I just purchased "the book". So far, it's an interesting read.

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                • #38
                  Hey Tom...just wanted to let you know I really appreciate the hard work you do...I've read the first four chapter in THE BOOK and thus far really enjoyed it and learned something too.

                  I'm taking a look through the LI stats you just posted...I really think this LI research is groundbreaking and VERY important.

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                  • #39
                    This is really fascinating data...I wish I had your database...

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                    • #40
                      Thanks guys, I appreciate the support.

                      ***

                      The data at Fangraphs is a deal between David and BIS. I have no involvement. I licenced my WE and LI data to David so that he can generate the WE/LI charts.
                      Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                      • #41
                        Question Tango...

                        In the Toolshed section of your book (I was rereading it today), why do the starting and ending win probabilities of each offensive event in the table on runs per win all well exceed .500 except the defensive indifference play? Seems to be suggesting that every team from 1999-2002, when it was on offense...had a better than 50% chance of winning.

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                        • #42
                          Hey Tango, did you get my PM?

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                          • #43
                            Matt, good question. I've never thought about it too much, but I think it has to do with the "left on base" and "3 out" situation. On average, you will have 1 man left on base per inning, so you are leaving runs (or wins) on the table. So, on average you have to have a better than .500 chance of winning. If I included an "extra" PA (the one that wipes off the runners from the base), we would end up with an overall exactly .500 chance of winning.
                            Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                            • #44
                              Interesting...

                              I thought that all 2-out plays (the ones that conclude innings) were recorded though in this table...shouldn't the after-play win expectency have drop overall to near .500?

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                              • #45
                                Yes, they are included. All plays are included. The "starting WE" is the WE at the start of the PA. What I would want to add to complete this is the starting WE for the first batter of the next half-inning, since this will clear out the runners left on base of the previous half-inning. I think this is what I want, but I haven't thought about it too much.
                                Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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