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  • #61
    Originally posted by Tango Tiger
    Page 260-261 deals with the on-deck hitter, with the statement "sac more often with a low-walk, low-OBP hitter on deck".

    The Book goes on to discuss the speed and proficiency of the batter as well as the speed of the baserunner, the count, the pitcher bunting, close and late games.

    Which element is missing?
    Right, right, which is why I said that given the right context the likelihood of scoring in the RE tables on pg. 8 could be trumped by the situation.

    Though you will go scoreless in the 1 out, runner on second state, 3% more often than the runner on first, no out state, if you have a speedy runner and the right type of hitter at the plate, you probably have a better chance of scoring, period, than if you would be able to revert to the runner on 1st, no out state. That's all I was saying.
    THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

    In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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    • #62
      dig: I didn't have any issue with anything you said. I was directing my question to Matt's "missing element". I think we're all on the same page now.
      Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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      • #63
        Yeah...I was only referring to the element missing from the %chance of scoring tables at the front of the book...you covered the basics well in the main chapter.

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        • #64
          Tango - I think the problem, if there is one, is not a problem of missing elements but of misplaced emphasis. As you correctly point out, you mention the necessity of context on page 32 and then deal with some contextual sittuations in the various in depth chapters. But the main focus of the first chapter is the construction of the RE and WE tables. Context is mentioned in the one sentence on page 32 followed by an introduction of the WE charts which are described as the "long sought after charts." So, for the average reader the emphasis seems to be on how useful the charts will be and not on how necessary it is to establish the proper context to make a good evaluation of a particular strategy.

          Now you and your fellow authors don't make the mistake of using the RE or WE charts without establishing the proper context. You are always very good at stating the parameters of the particular situation that you are evaluating and modifying the charts to properly evaluate that situation. You are so scrupulous about doing this that I can find no instance in the entire book where you actually use the RE or WE charts unmodified to reach any of your conclusions. But you have hyped the charts so much in the first chapter that readers want to be able to use them and they don't have the tools necessary to make the modifications like you do so that seems to lead to some of the questions like digglahhh's.

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          • #65
            dirt: Thanks, and I agree to a point.

            MGL, Andy and I used event files that are available from Retrosheet. All our work is reproducible (if you are willing to spend hundreds of hours). At the very least, a reader should be able to stop someone else cold in his tracks if he tries to misuse the RE and WE charts.
            Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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            • #66
              Tango, did you find problems with the events files?

              I found some, I made some lengthy posts about them over the winter.

              But just quickly.

              Some teams have tons of ground rule doubles while others have none.

              Many of the hits are without trajectory or location.

              Miscategorized double plays, double plays that were not really GDPs labeled as such...

              Maybe tomorrow, I'll try to dig up my posts about it. I work for MLB.com and was involved in a project to try to convert the event files from Retrosheet into our code format in order to eventually archive the data on our site as well. I started noticing some funny stuff about data from team to team.
              THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

              In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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              • #67
                Tango didn't deal with ball trajectories in his book as far as I'm aware except in the platoon chapter when he asked about groundball and flyball batters vs. groundball and flyball pitchers. And the trajectory data is closer to complete the further into the modern era you go...but yes, there's a LOT of missing data before the 1990s and even still some after.

                I never noticed the Groudnrule Double thing, but I suspect differences in groundrule double percentages have to do with the park's eccentricities and the groundrules thereabout.

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                • #68
                  dig: I think the ground-rule double is what Matt said. I didn't use GIDP, per se, just the starting/ending base states. You should report any problems to the Retrolist group. IF those problems exist, then wouldn't we see an imbalance between the GIDP totals of Retro against the official source?
                  Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                  • #69
                    Yes...we likely would. BTW, as far as I'm aware, if you LINE out to second and it turns into a DP, the official offensive event scoring that goes on your permanent record is GIDP...in your seasonal batting line you get credit for causing a double play grounder even if it's a line-out I think.

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                    • #70
                      well lined into DPs are not counted as GIDPs statistically.

                      The problem Tango, is that, as far as I'm aware, the event files have been composed from multiple sources.
                      THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                      In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        But I'm talking about the aggregate of those event files. Are you saying that if Damon has 8 GIDP, that Retrosheet will have GIDP from 8 games, but that those are not necessarily the correct 8 games?

                        But then you'd have the problem on the pitcher side as well.

                        If the aggregate matches to the hitter and pitcher (or team) totals, then that's a strong (though not bulletproof) indication that things were done correctly, especially true for "uncommon" events like GIDP, SB, etc.
                        Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                        • #72
                          Tango, I'm going to take this to a PM if you don't mind.
                          THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                          In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            I'm pretty sure Matt will get a kick out of this, and anyone else interested in the Run Expectancy matrix:

                            http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...ctancy_matrix/

                            Feel free to post your comments on that thread, or here.
                            Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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                            • #74
                              Tom, I understand everything except the 30% chance of scoring, on average. Where did that figure come from?
                              "Any pitcher who throws at a batter and deliberately tries to hit him is a communist."

                              - Alvin Dark

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                              • #75
                                At this point, it's not important. You could have used 20% or 40%, and everything still would have worked out the same.

                                However, it will become important in the next step, and I will describe where it comes frrom. In short, (R-HR)/(H-HR+BB+HBP) = .30
                                Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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