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Win / Loss Projection

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  • Win / Loss Projection

    What would be the best method of predicting a team's record before heading into the season. Has adding up the projected win shares, VORP, etc. of each team's starting lineup (ranging from batters to starting pitchers to relief and to bench players) done a good job in the past of determining where a team will finish relative to others. Would combining a team's player's projecte runs and comparing them to the amount of runs their pitcher's are projected to let up give a good estimate of determining an estimated win / loss record?

  • #2
    Projecting Runs for and against is how most people do it in terms of statheads while others run many sims. But there all worhtless in terms of final standings. They are more a snapshot of what teams look like before the season. A way to get a read on the teams before the seasons starts. Something like I think team A is going to be weak up the middle, the starters are not healthy, but the bullpen is strong. So what does all that mean? Well predicting is a way to find how all that measures up. Then one could from there say okay SS is lacking in production we need to find a better solution to SS, our bullpen is fine perhaps we even have a surplus so we can trade from there to answer SS, so on and so on.

    Most projections once the season start should just be thrown out the window. Even if they are accurate (in terms of win/loss) I bet you the reason why they thought that a team would have a certain win/loss record and why the team had their actual win/loss record are totally different. Such as a prediction thinking that a team would win 79 games because the starting rotation was iffy but they have a good catcher and firstbasemen carrying the offense, and then it turns out that the team actually gets 80 wins but it is because the starting rotation is solid all year but the catcher gets injured in the first month and the firstbasemen slumps the whole year. Yeah in terms of projecting you were accurate but in terms of why you were way off.


    • #3
      Thanks Ubiquitous. I sent you a PM to follow up on your comment.


      • #4
        You don't really need to send me a message you can post a message to me here and if it strikes someone elses fancy and they wish to comment so be it.


        • #5
          A recent article at BP gave the probabilities of each team winning based on their expected W/L total, which is based on expected runs made and allowed, which is based on projected stats. Looking at last year's projections I don't think one predicted division winner was actually true. I do, however, this that the predictions made are better than anyother info that is available (like a gut feeling).

          Probably the best method is to wait until you can see what teams are likely going to play like for the rest of the way. For now, though, it appears as if the following teams are the nicest plays:

          AL Central: Detroit Tigers (16.67%)
          AL East: Boston Red Sox (12.45%)
          NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (10.32%)
          NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (10.12%)
          NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks (7.50%)
          AL West: Texas Rangers (6.76%)

          (Note: There are actually higher positive expectations that the last two given, but I just wanted to list the highest ones for each division. I would probably only consider double digit positive expecations for a pick so early before season end.)

          Obviously, I am not saying the Tigers will win the AL Central. The % are the positive expectations of betting on each team to win the division at this point of the year. For example, Detroit is listed at +1286, which is around 7.2%. According to BP, though, they really have around a 21% chance, giving a positive expectation of close to 14%.

          I guess my question then is what has past research shown regarding what point in the season is generally the time when a team's ability for the rest of the year is known? I know this is an iffy subject (two years ago when the Royals started off hot they collapsed by the all-star break, but last year the Sox continued to play well, surprising me at least), but is there any sort of general period that can be picked out?


          • #6
            For the last couple of paragraphs one could simply look at past results and see at what point in a season do results become concrete. AT what point do they vary little. You see articles like this all the time about no team has ever done this once they reach this point so on and so on. The second thing that you could then do is take a look at the outliers and the compliers. Find out why some teams defied their current standings while others stayed the same.


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