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  • Hit & Run

    Sean Casey has grounded into three Double Plays this season. He always was ahead in the count when he hit the ball. Everytime i would have sent the runner on first.

    So I wondered is there a formula to determine when you should sent the runner on a certain hitter (with a "Hit & Run Count")

    This formula would contain something like K/AB, GIDP/AB, Groundball Rate etc.

    I would like to focus on the hitter here. So we know when hitters like Casey, Pudge or A.J. Pierzynski are up with a runner on first a Hit & Run might be in order.

    Any Ideas?

  • #2
    Many managers are sketchy about sending a runner when you have one of today's free swinging hackers at the plate.

    I have no clue about any formulas, but hit and runs should generally come on fastball counts. 2-0, 2-1, 3-1.

    Imo, managers would be wise to put more hit and runs on, even with 2 strikes, as it causes even the biggest hackers to cut down their swing and focus on making contact.

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    • #3
      Sean Casey is a GDP machine.

      He is a perfect example of the sabermetric notion that a K is not always the worst possible outcome.

      As a Met fan, I can testify that Mike Piazza used to do this all the time. In certain situations, he was just too good of a hitter for his own good, fighting off a tough pitch and hitting a hard grounder right at somebody with a runner on first.

      I think the higher GDP totals are something you just have to take along with a slow footed .300 hitter...
      THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

      In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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      • #4
        In Tom Tippett's now-defunct blog on diamond-mind.com , he looked at the H&R. Firewall at work treats DMB as a "game" site, so is blocked. If someone can look for it, and post a link, that'd be great.
        Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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        • #5
          Here you go:

          http://www.diamond-mind.com/newsletter/en031022.htm
          Author of THE BOOK -- Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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