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  • VORP/WARP/MLVr

    Is there a place to find formulas for these stats? Thanks...

  • #2
    I think all of those calculations come from Baseball Prospectus. You might contact them, but they may be calculations those boys don't want to be generally available.
    Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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    • #3
      You should PM "BoSox Rule" or "SABR Matt"

      They'd know.

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      • #4
        Thank you guys.

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        • #5
          BP, for some strange reason, is completely unwilling to let us know how they calculate their total player metrics. That's the big reason why I don't care for them too much. It's amazing how some place so much faith in a measure they don't even understand. I use Win Shares, which I prefer much more because the explanation on how their calculated is out there for anyone who's interested.

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          • #6
            Thank you as well 538280. I too, prefer WinShares and was able to find the formula quite easily. The reason I wanted these as well is for a report I'm doing for my Alg 2 class on SABRmetrics.

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            • #7
              WARP is simply turning equivalent runs into wins above replacement. EqA is explained on BP and I remember correctly one can also find how to turn them into wins in the various books published by BP and in articles on their site. Same applies for VORP and MLVr. For instance a nice big section on MLVr is available through the BP glossary.

              These stats I think BP has no real interest in making proprietary. Yes I do believe that BP would like people to come to them for these stats instead of making them as common as say runs created but these are stats that have no real value by being a black box stat. Now something like PECOTA is a perfect black box stat one that would be in their best interest to keep the inner workings secretive.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by 538280
                BP, for some strange reason, is completely unwilling to let us know how they calculate their total player metrics. That's the big reason why I don't care for them too much. It's amazing how some place so much faith in a measure they don't even understand. I use Win Shares, which I prefer much more because the explanation on how their calculated is out there for anyone who's interested.
                The problem with Win Shares seems to come from knowing exactly how it is calculated.
                I read through Bill James' baseball abstract and thought that Win Shares might be legit. I then picked up the actual "Win Shares" book, which describes in detail what they are. After reading through it and thinking about it, I was bit disgusted, really. (i.e. I wanted my money back.)
                James completely blurs the line between defense and pitching. Credit is being given where it is not deserved.

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                • #9
                  Hey Spute! Glad to see you made it here.

                  To Mr. Red...I'm sorry I haven't yet responded to you, but WARP/VORP/MLVr are a bit misty to me...I find it difficult to tell exactly (down to the FORMULA) how they are calculated...I can only speak in generatlities, most of which I suspect you already know.

                  With respect to Win Shares...I agree with you on the failure of the method to correctly depict the line between pitching and fielding...and I've attempted here to make a name for PCA almost exclusively based on that grievence and PCA's basis in DIPS theory...

                  I have of course gone on to realize there are many flaws with PCA as well...some of which have the potential to be rather severe (I'm still hopeful that I can find a volunteer with sufficient skill in the art of computer programming to help me fulfill some rather lofty goals I have for improving PCA...including converting static linear weights to something more along the lines of BaseRuns (I've been pursuaded by TangoTiger et al that regression is too error prone) and quantifying with marginal analysis the exact significance of each defensive unit...

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by SABR Matt
                    Hey Spute! Glad to see you made it here.
                    Hey, buddy

                    I don't know if I'll become a regular on Baseball-Fever or not, but I've heard enough people talking about it that I decided to try it out.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Spute
                      The problem with Win Shares seems to come from knowing exactly how it is calculated.
                      I read through Bill James' baseball abstract and thought that Win Shares might be legit. I then picked up the actual "Win Shares" book, which describes in detail what they are. After reading through it and thinking about it, I was bit disgusted, really. (i.e. I wanted my money back.)
                      James completely blurs the line between defense and pitching. Credit is being given where it is not deserved.
                      Fair point, I agree the way he separates pitching and fielding is rather non specific and extremely imperfect. I don't think it's completely horrible though. It is true all the things he takes to be indicators of the defense being more responsible for runs not allowed (double plays, DER) are indeed indicators, but far from something that's going to give you a real good handle on it.

                      One other problem I have with WS is that it's system for pitchers I find to be flawed, I almost never use it in evaluating pitchers. He just evaluates them basically on how many runs they allowed, and puts in a slight adjustment for won-lost records. I personally don't think won-lost records should be included at all, and instead of just figuring how good the team defense is he should have probably tried to figure out how much the defense helped each individual pitcher (like a SO pitcher will rely less on his defense, and related things).

                      Plus, I wish he would have included some sort of era adjustment, to make up for the fact pitchers of earlier times in general pitched so many more innings than they do today. It is impossible, using Win Shares, to make a good evaluation of Walter Johnson's peak vs. Roger Clemens' or Greg Maddux's because it makes no accouting for the fact pitchers in Johnson's era pitched so many more innings.

                      I do generally think the system is pretty good for position players though, and do include it a bit in my rating system (after being put through my own league quality adjustments, of course) that I use to help me evaluate players and where they rank in history.

                      One thing that I'm actually glad James didn't attempt to do is put a league quality adjustment in his system. Different people have radically different ideas on league quality generally. For instance, WARP3 thinks that 1990s baseball is the strongest the game has ever been. I disagree with that conclusion. I think it is probably 70s/80s era baseball. So, that makes me have to note in my mind that WARP3 will usually slightly overrate players from the modern era and underrate ones from the 70s/80s.

                      Different people have different feelings on league quality, so I think that should be left for the people who use the metrics to make their own adjustments with, like I do with Win Shares.

                      Unless, of course, you have come up with a systematic way of quantifying league quality (like Matt did). Then, as long as your system is credible I'll take a look at it and perhaps it will make me change my mind on league quality through time.

                      But, BP, of course, doesn't give us any explanation at how they arrive at their league quality adjustments. That's another huge reason why generally I don't care for the WARP3 system too much.
                      Last edited by 538280; 04-17-2006, 12:57 PM.

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