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Which player is the better hitter, and why?

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  • Which player is the better hitter, and why?

    Player A: 705 PA, 651 AB, 228 H, 54 BB, 358 TB
    .350 BA/.400 OBP/.550 SA/.950 OPS

    or

    Player B: 705 PA, 604 AB, 181 H, 101 BB, 332 TB
    .300 BA/.400 OBP/.550 SA/.950 OPS
    16
    Player A
    75.00%
    12
    Player B
    18.75%
    3
    They are both the same
    6.25%
    1
    Last edited by Joltin' Joe; 01-08-2012, 11:29 AM.

  • #2
    Player A is better by a margin of Runs Created as a raw number and RC per PA.

    While I might have applied BsR or LWTS or some other formula for RC, I used a direct and simple formula: (TB + BB) * BA

    A = 358 + 54 = 412 * .350 = 144.2 RC, which = 144.2/705 = .2045 RC/PA

    B = 332 + 101 = 433 * .300 = 129.9 RC, which = 129.9/705 = .1843 RC/PA

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
      Player A: 705 PA, 651 AB, 228 H, 54 BB, 358 TB
      .350 BA/.400 OBP/.550 SA/.950 OPS

      or

      Player B: 705 PA, 604 AB, 181 H, 101 BB, 332 TB
      .300 BA/.400 OBP/.550 SA/.950 OPS
      Depends a lot upon context. Should we assume they played in the same year and on the same team?
      *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

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      • #4
        Originally posted by DJC View Post
        Depends a lot upon context. Should we assume they played in the same year and on the same team?
        Yes you can make any reasonable and fair assumptions to make and support your argument. roof:

        Comment


        • #5
          The only assumption I made was that the two players are contemporary to each other. A further distinction might be made for different leagues during same season, where AL rate of RC/PA would be higher than NL due to DH.

          I'll let my input stand. Player B's higher BB and TB are insufficient to overcome the 50 point differential in BA. To me, this suggests that the power gap between the two is not as great as it might seem at first look.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by leewileyfan View Post
            The only assumption I made was that the two players are contemporary to each other. A further distinction might be made for different leagues during same season, where AL rate of RC/PA would be higher than NL due to DH.

            I'll let my input stand. Player B's higher BB and TB are insufficient to overcome the 50 point differential in BA. To me, this suggests that the power gap between the two is not as great as it might seem at first look.
            Actually,player B has LESS TB than player A.The OBPs are identical,but very often a walk is NOT as good as single.But Player B only has 26 less TB despite the fact that Player A has 47 more hits.Hmmm...wonder if Player B is hitting more homers-potentially providing more runs.Maybe Player B is the better of the two?The SAs are identical ,even though Player A has a much higher BA.I smell home runs.
            Last edited by Nimrod; 01-09-2012, 05:52 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Nimrod View Post
              The OBPs are identical,but very often a walk is NOT as good as single.
              If there is a runner in scoring position, no, but I wouldn't say that that is very often.

              I voted Player B; he gives me more bases (TB + BB), and even in pure TB the difference is only 26 (even though Player A has 47 more hits (but 47 less walks))

              Apparently I was the only one (until now) :innocent:
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              • #8
                Assuming they are contemporaries, player B clearly has more power. His isolated power (ISO) is .250, which is quite high. Player A's is .200, which is well above average but not exceptional.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Solrac View Post
                  If there is a runner in scoring position, no, but I wouldn't say that that is very often.

                  I voted Player B; he gives me more bases (TB + BB), and even in pure TB the difference is only 26 (even though Player A has 47 more hits (but 47 less walks))

                  Apparently I was the only one (until now) :innocent:
                  To be honest,I voted player A before I thought about it more.(Once a person votes then that is it,can`t change one`s vote).I probably should have voted player B.
                  Last edited by Nimrod; 01-10-2012, 08:12 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I had some time on my hands; so I figured out a model for both players, trying to determine the probable distributions of the kind of hits they connected for:

                    Player A: 228 hits for 358 total bases:

                    25 HR = 100 TB
                    35 2B = 70 TB
                    10 3B = 30 TB
                    158 1B = 158 TB

                    228 Hits = 358 TB

                    36 HR = 144 TB
                    35 2B = 70 TB
                    4 3B = 12 TB
                    106 1B = 106 TB

                    181 hits = 332 TB

                    For me, the bottom line lies in base production potential, at least as important as the raw base totals produced. The HR difference is not so dramatic as to call one player a slugger and the other, not. At the top of the power hierarchy, there is a random factor with the HR, just by the relative infrequency of the HR, that suggests not all HR's occur under the "best" game conditions. Then too, on the lower end, there is a factor of the BB actually taking power away from the hitter, in a trade off.

                    Key is that, with virtually the same number of extra base hits [Player A, 70; Player B, 76], Player A is superior because he collects 47 more "hits" than Player B [228, 181]; and hits have far more runner advancement value than BB. With traditional conversion of bases into runs at about .4 or so, Player A's 358 TB should be expected to produce at least 358-332 = 26 * .4 = ] 10.4 runs more than Player B.

                    I'll stick with my original response, Player A 144 runs, Player B 129 runs.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by leewileyfan View Post
                      Key is that, with virtually the same number of extra base hits [Player A, 70; Player B, 76], Player A is superior because he collects 47 more "hits" than Player B [228, 181]; and hits have far more runner advancement value than BB. With traditional conversion of bases into runs at about .4 or so, Player A's 358 TB should be expected to produce at least 358-332 = 26 * .4 = ] 10.4 runs more than Player B.

                      I'll stick with my original response, Player A 144 runs, Player B 129 runs.
                      Since we only have the numbers, not total hits and so on, let's look at your formula once again.

                      Bases = 0.4runs

                      Player A: 358 TB + 54 BB = 412 B (164.8 R)
                      Player B: 332 TB + 101 BB = 433 B (173.2 R)

                      A difference of about 21 bases, which would give Player B around 8.4 runs more than Player A

                      So with the walks included, Player B closed down the 10.4 R gap, and bested Player A by 8.4 runs; a total of 18.8 extra run advantage by Player B, when factoring walks.

                      Only when valuing a walk as half as valuable as a single, can we say that Player A beats out Player B in bases, runs, production.

                      Player A: 358 TB + 27 BB = 385 B (154 R)
                      Player B: 332 TB + 50.5 BB = 382.5 B (153 R)

                      Granted, this is not exact science, this is merely an estimate as such, but overall Player B would give me more bases, meaning probably more runs, in this context at least, with the numbers available.
                      Last edited by Solrac; 01-10-2012, 11:44 AM.
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                      1876 1880 1881 1882 1885 1886 1906 1907 1908 1910 1918
                      1929 1932 1935 1938 1945
                      1984 1989 1998 2003 2007 2008

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I should have been more specific, stating Total Bases to Runs at about .4.

                        To clarify further [some will disagree] my shortcut formula for RC = TB + BB * BA.

                        Player A = 358 + 54 = 412 * .350 = 144 RC
                        Player B = 332 + 101 = 433 * .300 = 130 RC

                        The RC for Player A [144] = .402 of hits TB [358]

                        The RC for Player B [130] = .392 of hits TB [332]

                        Actual runs to TB + BB comes closer to BA, a far cry from .4.

                        There are, in my example, differences of 11 HRs in Player B's profile, while the doubles are equal, at 35. Player A has six more triples than Player B; so the overall "power" profile is not as large as it might seem at first glance.

                        As I stated, the BB element is not all positive for the batter drawing the walks. Walks are a good thing. However they are also instances in which the power is taken away from the batter in a trade off.

                        The decisive factor, for me, dealing with these specific profiles, is the hit production [228-181] of Player A over Player B. Those 47 hits reveal a certain level of consistent safe contact, each with a greater potential for runner advancement than a walk.

                        TB [hit generated] add up. I wonder how many players [hitters] have amassed 358 TB or more in a season between 1901 and 2011. I'll bet the number is pretty low; and the company is very selective.

                        If my numbers are reasonably accurate, 144 RC in 705 PA yields .2043 PC/PA, a career level [=>.2000] amassed by only 9 players since 1901. That's pretty fair company. Even if it's a fluke, it's a standout season.
                        Last edited by leewileyfan; 01-10-2012, 12:28 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          There has, give or take a season or so,been 304 times that a hitter has amassed at least 358 TBs in a season between 1901 and 2011.
                          Last edited by Nimrod; 01-10-2012, 01:02 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Well using the traditional and basic Runs Created formula, we would have this:

                            (Formula: H + BB * TB / AB + BB = RC)

                            Player A: ((228 + 54) * 358) / (651 + 54) = 143.2 RC

                            Player B: ((181 + 101) * 332) / (604 + 101) = 132.8 RC

                            So it would seem that Player A would have created more runs, thanks to his total bases, and the equal trade-off between H and BB between each player. So in that perspective, and coupled with the 50 point advantage in BA, I'd give the nod to Player A as the better hitter.

                            However, I value bases more than pure BA and H, so I would take Player B. He has more bases (TB + BB) and walks more, meaning he'll work the pitcher more (at least 4 pitches per AB per BB, compared to possible 1 P/AB/H), and the trade-off would value him more; had he had more pitchers pitch to him, he would've hit more, with probably more power, and gotten more bases.

                            Player B gives me about 1.8 TB/AB, while Player A gives me 1.6 TB/AB; add in BB, Player B gives me 0.61 B/PA, and Player A 0.58 B/PA.

                            As such, I'd prefer Player B, however, I can totally understand why you and other would pick Player A :cap:

                            Of course, I wouldn't mind them both in my lineup
                            10 14 23 26 31 31 42
                            1876 1880 1881 1882 1885 1886 1906 1907 1908 1910 1918
                            1929 1932 1935 1938 1945
                            1984 1989 1998 2003 2007 2008

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                            • #15
                              Hits are better than walks so Player A is a much better player

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