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  • drstrangelove
    replied
    Empirically, per the RC formula...

    Assuming I understand the discussion

    two players with the same PA, same AB (i.e., same walks, HB, etc.), same s.pct (i.e., same TB) will favor dramatically the player with the higher batting average. The reason is the higher BA is achieved with fewer outs. While it might 'seem' to defy logic, it's because we are used to thinking of the game the wrong way.

    The most precious commodity in the game is outs. Hitting a lot of MR, for example, while making a ton of outs, is far worse than hitting a ton of singles and making much fewer outs.

    Code:
    																																	Outs	TOT							
    	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	AVG	BB	SO	TB	OBP	SLG	LH	Ex/LH	OPS	Made	RC	HBP	SB	CS	SF	SH	GDP	IBB
    2011	86482	77586	20004	4005	411	2274	.258	6986	15588	31653	.323	.408	6690	11649	.731	60467	10060	738	1600	619	634	530	1721	472
    																								
    BA	86482	77586	20004	0	0	0	.258	6986	15588	20004	.323	.258	0	0	.580	60467	7377	738	1600	619	634	530	1721	472
    																								
    Spct	86482	61556	3970	0	0	3970	.064	23016	15588	15880	.323	.258	3970	11910	.581	60471	6463	738	1600	619	634	530	1721	472
    Here is the 2011 Al season. Top line is data using the RC formula. Actual runs were over predicted by 57 (0.57%). So, yea, it's a good estimate.

    Line 2 is the Batting Average method. All singles. Line 3, is same number of total bases (i.e., same slugging %). I used all homers. I adjusted walks so the OBP would be the same.

    The batting average line is about 20% better in scoring. I can't get it to line up nicely for my post, (I suck at posting code from excel.)

    Notice the outs made are the same (by definition.) But while homers are move valuable than singles, singles are more valuable than walks. Per the formula, the latter offsets the formula comfortably.
    Last edited by drstrangelove; 02-20-2012, 05:13 PM.

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  • Second Base Coach
    replied
    Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    If you have two players with similar SLG then the one with the lower AVG is actually putting more runs on the board since he is being more efficient with his hits.
    Efficient? More like more bang for his buck or something like that. And how can we be sure he is putting more runs on the scoreboard when nearly all of those runs are team dependent?

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  • Ubiquitous
    replied
    If you have two players with similar SLG then the one with the lower AVG is actually putting more runs on the board since he is being more efficient with his hits.

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  • jalbright
    replied
    Actually, I'm not even sure the agreement at the start of the thread that BA isn't the most important is accurate. At the very least, it depends on how one defines important. If it's the spread in BA, that may be generally true, because BA is more tightly bunched than slg % or OBP. However, BA is a vital ingredient of both stats, as OBP is mostly BA, but with walks and HBP included (among other considerations). Slg % is BA plus isolated power percentage. So BA counts twice in OPS+. Even for an extreme case, a low BA with high walk totals and lots of power type like Adam Dunn, about 65% of his OBP comes from BA, and over 45% of his slg% comes from BA. For the average player, it's more like 80% of OBP and 63% of slugging.

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  • jalbright
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    Just looked at it, and it's not really clear which player is better. But what is clear is that there's no strong evidence that we should automatically prefer the higher batting average when both players are roughly equal in OBP and SLG%. Usually the higher batting average guy will use up more outs along the way, imcluding hitting into more DPs, since he puts the ball in play more often and would be less of a flyball hitter than the Evans or Thome type.
    That is a reasonable argument and the type of stuff I was looking for when I created that thread, you should post on it.
    That being said, not all high BA guys with low isolated discipline/power hit into lot of GIDP, Ichiro is a prime example.

    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    Just looked at it, and it's not really clear which player is better. But what is clear is that there's no strong evidence that we should automatically prefer the higher batting average when both players are roughly equal in OBP and SLG%. Usually the higher batting average guy will use up more outs along the way, imcluding hitting into more DPs, since he puts the ball in play more often and would be less of a flyball hitter than the Evans or Thome type.
    That is a reasonable argument and the type of stuff I was looking for when I created that thread, you should post on it.
    That being said, not all high BA guys with low isolated discipline/power hit into lot of GIDP, Ichiro is a prime example.

    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

    I checked, and Madlock hit into DPs more often than Evans, including one season where Madlock led the league with 25 GIDPs.
    Last edited by jalbright; 02-19-2012, 12:59 PM. Reason: fixed quote brackets

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  • jalbright
    replied
    Originally posted by J W View Post
    Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

    When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

    So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?
    That is correct given RANDOM production. The guy with the .260 average has to make up 20 points on his on base percentage with walks, AND 20 points on his slugging percentage with extra bases to make up for 20 points lower in batting average. A walk and an extra base are only worth about .7 of a single though so the .260 guy gives up 20 points in batting average but gains back about 28 points worth in other production to bring his other rates up to the level of the first guy.

    However I have tended to find that higher batting average guys tend get slightly more run value from their walks, hits and extra bases than if they were produced randomly. Joe Morgan (for a negative example) only hit about .230 with a .350 slugging percentage in situations where a hit was much more valuable than a walk. Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Ichiro, Boggs all hit almost identically to their career rates with a runner on second and 2 outs.
    There is a counterbalance to what you are saying here. You're focusing on the value of singles versus walks, and there's no doubt the single is better. So in the area of making up the BA difference in OB Pct, the BA is better. However, if BA is lower, you need more XBH, or isolated power, to make the slugging percentage equal--and those XBH are superior to the singles. If it's not a wash, it comes close to it, IMHO.

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  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by J W View Post
    Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

    When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

    So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?
    Maybe not. The one with more singles is more likely to be thrown out trying to stretch a hit, and is more likely to hit into DPs. He is using more outs up too.

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  • brett
    replied
    brett posted this:

    Originally posted by J W View Post
    Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

    When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

    So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?
    That is correct given RANDOM production. The guy with the .260 average has to make up 20 points on his on base percentage with walks, AND 20 points on his slugging percentage with extra bases to make up for 20 points lower in batting average. A walk and an extra base are only worth about .7 of a single though so the .260 guy gives up 20 points in batting average but gains back about 28 points worth in other production to bring his other rates up to the level of the first guy.

    However I have tended to find that higher batting average guys tend get slightly more run value from their walks, hits and extra bases than if they were produced randomly. Joe Morgan (for a negative example) only hit about .230 with a .350 slugging percentage in situations where a hit was much more valuable than a walk. Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Ichiro, Boggs all hit almost identically to their career rates with a runner on second and 2 outs.
    There is a counterbalance to what you are saying here. You're focusing on the value of singles versus walks, and there's no doubt the single is better. So in the area of making up the BA difference in OB Pct, the BA is better. However, if BA is lower, you need more XBH, or isolated power, to make the slugging percentage equal--and those XBH are superior to the singles. If it's not a wash, it comes close to it, IMHO.
    Last edited by jalbright; 02-17-2012, 03:26 AM.

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  • J W
    replied
    Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

    When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

    So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    Fair question, I actually made a thread asking the same questions, have you seen it?

    http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...hitter-and-why
    Just looked at it, and it's not really clear which player is better. But what is clear is that there's no strong evidence that we should automatically prefer the higher batting average when both players are roughly equal in OBP and SLG%. Usually the higher batting average guy will use up more outs along the way, imcluding hitting into more DPs, since he puts the ball in play more often and would be less of a flyball hitter than the Evans or Thome type.

    I checked, and Madlock hit into DPs more often than Evans, including one season where Madlock led the league with 25 GIDPs.

    Evans - 10569 PA - 227 GIDPs - one every 46.6 PA
    Madlock - 7372 PA - 190 GIDPs - one every 38.8 PA

    Leave a comment:


  • Joltin' Joe
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    So, why does the higher batting average become the tie breaker, rather than the isolated power, which Evans wins .170 to .123.
    Fair question, I actually made a thread asking the same questions, have you seen it?

    http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...hitter-and-why

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    I really wish you would actually read my post if you are going to quote me. I said if the OBP and the Slug are close, then the significant delta in the batting average would be a tie breaker. The road OBP and Slugs are virtually a tie for Dewey and Mad Dog, however Mad Dog's batting average is significantly higher.
    So, why does the higher batting average become the tie breaker, rather than the isolated power, which Evans wins .170 to .123.

    Do you have some research that shows that batting average is a more important component of SLG% than isolated power?

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  • Joltin' Joe
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    I am talking about when you wrote....

    "the significant delta in the BA does come into play as a "tie breaker"."

    Why is the batting average the tie breaker, rather than the OBP or the SLG% ?
    I really wish you would actually read my post if you are going to quote me. I said if the OBP and the Slug are close, then the significant delta in the batting average would be a tie breaker. The road OBP and Slugs are virtually a tie for Dewey and Mad Dog, however Mad Dog's batting average is significantly higher.

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    Huh? I specifically stated in the sentence you are quoting of me that BA is the least important of the OPS troica.
    I am talking about when you wrote....

    "the significant delta in the BA does come into play as a "tie breaker"."

    Why is the batting average the tie breaker, rather than the OBP or the SLG% ?

    Leave a comment:


  • Joltin' Joe
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    Why is that? Is there some reaserach that proves that batting average is the most important portion of OPS?
    Huh? I specifically stated in the sentence you are quoting of me that BA is the least important of the OPS troica.

    Leave a comment:

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