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  • #61
    to go back to the original mantle vs. hornsby example:

    I looked at wRC+ at fangraphs and was very surprised that they are both at 171. so actually mantle looks better with that stat than with OPS+ which has him 4 points back.

    But I think this is not because of the xBHs. slugging does overrate XBHs (we can discuss about linear weights being correctly but nobody who is sane will think that a HR is worth 4 times as many runs as a single) but at the same time it also underrates walks (doesn't count them so that a walk is only included in the OBP component).
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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    • #62
      The more this thread evolves, the more it is about metrics employed than sample players being compared. This is probably just what it should be doing. However, many of the statistical titles being used are components that contribute to more comprehensive formulas that approach run production differently.

      Citing the model [Visitor and Home; Post #21, page 1 of this thread, here is a sampling of referents and the run production end products each creates [all relative to the Home-Visitor model]:

      Player ..... SLG ..... OB% ..... OPS ..... RC ........ RC2 ..... BsR

      Home ..... .450 ..... .367 ..... .817 ..... 100.8 ..... 99.2 ..... .93.1
      Visitor .... .450 ..... .349 ..... .799 ........92.6 ..... 94.3 ..... .94.7

      Above, RC = shortcut runs created, [BB+TB*BA] OR [TB*OB%]
      RC2 = a wrinkle on the above: [H + BB] * TB/PA

      BsR: currently favored by many as "accurate" by being more sensitive to baseball game dynamics "reality," combines Linear Weights input values for events with advancement factors and OUT values.

      If we take the above and apply them to actual players in actual seasons, we can see projected values and how they evaluate events:

      Ted Williams, 1941
      Jimmy Bloodworth 1949
      Cecil Travis 1941
      Lou Whittaker 1988

      PlayerName ...... AB ... Hits ..... BB ... HR ... TB ...... SLG % ...OBAvg ... Pl. OPS ... RC ...... RC2 ...... BsR ... Ba.-Ref. RC

      Williams '41 ... 456 ... 193 ... 147 ... 37 ... 335 ... .744 ... .564 ....... 1.298 ... 204.0 ... 188.9 ... 188.2 ... 183
      Bloodworth '49... 452 ... 118 ... 27 ... 9 ... 174 ... .385 ... .303 ....... .688 ... 52.5 ... 52.7 ... 51.4 ... 53
      Travis ,41 ........ 608 ... 218 ... 52 ... 7 ... 316 ... .520 ... .409 ....... .929 ... 131.9 ... 129.3 ... 121.7 ... 129
      Whittaker '88 ... 403 ... 111 ... 66 ... 12 ... 169 ... .419 ... .377 ....... .796 ... 64.7 ... 63.8 ... 66.3 ... 67

      Point being ... if we discuss player run creation value, we should define terms so that we are on the same page, apples-to-apples. I was personally surprised with the BsR numbers for Home-Visitor ... being the only metric that reversed run values.

      I allow that I may have erred in calculation; but I ran the numbers six times, so I suppose they are right. It's just odd that BsR would, in this instance, not only differ from other metrics, bur actually reverse tha valuations [runs created].

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