Why is Mark Reynolds in MLB?

[jbooth]

Can any of you sabrmatricians please tell me what stat the Orioles used to justify paying Mark Reynolds any money whatsoever?

The last two years he has hit around .200, struck out 39% of his AB's,
has almost twice as many K's as Hits is a lousy fielder, and half of his outs are K's.

I know he hits 30+ HR's but, IMO that can't make up for all the other horrible stats. 30 HR's is good but he only gets about 100 hits per year. There must be a minor league player somewhere who can do better.

Please inform me.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I think the Orioles were trying to trade him. The funny thing with him is as bad as he is he probaly is still a top 10 thirdbasemen right now. I wouldnt want him on my team but we have Dunn. I have no idea why teams would want players like this though.

[dominik]

there are plenty of infielders who cannot hit in the MLB. IF is more defensively oriented although both would be best of course.


BTW: reynolds has a 110 career OPS+. not great but above average for a 3B man.

[jbooth]

I think the Orioles were trying to trade him. The funny thing with him is as bad as he is he probaly is still a top 10 thirdbasemen right now. I wouldnt want him on my team but we have Dunn. I have no idea why teams would want players like this though.

Top TEN??? Based upon what? He had the most errors and lowest fielding pct in MLB last year and he hit around .221 with 196 K's vs 118 Hits. 37 HR's shows that when he does hit he hits a HR, but I wouldn't put him in the top ten just because he hit 37 HR's

[jbooth]

there are plenty of infielders who cannot hit in the MLB. IF is more defensively oriented although both would be best of course.


BTW: reynolds has a 110 career OPS+. not great but above average for a 3B man.

He was last in the MLB in fielding, so if you're looking for defense to keep him, that isn't it.

[Jackaroo Dave]

Because he strikes out SO much and almost never hits singles, he LOOKS worse than he is. On the other hand, because he's inconsistent from year to year, he SEEMS better than he is. If he could put up his odd-year numbers every year, he could really help a team, his even-year ones, he'd be on the bench or out of the league. But because his skill set is so narrow, one year looks much like another. If the glass looks half full, he'll stick around; half empty, he's gone.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Top TEN??? Based upon what? He had the most errors and lowest fielding pct in MLB last year and he hit around .221 with 196 K's vs 118 Hits. 37 HR's shows that when he does hit he hits a HR, but I wouldn't put him in the top ten just because he hit 37 HR's

Top 10 is probaly streching it but I can see him in the 11-15 range.

I know fantasy leagues arent the best sources but alot of these leagues have him as the 10th best. But then again alot of these leagues had David Freese at 20 and I would think Freese is a better 3rdbasemen.

[dominik]

Top TEN??? Based upon what? He had the most errors and lowest fielding pct in MLB last year and he hit around .221 with 196 K's vs 118 Hits. 37 HR's shows that when he does hit he hits a HR, but I wouldn't put him in the top ten just because he hit 37 HR's

maybe top 10 in the AL. the AL has only 14 teams so top 10 still means in the bottom third.

[Jackaroo Dave]

Because he strikes out SO much and almost never hits singles, he LOOKS worse than he is. On the other hand, because he's inconsistent from year to year, he SEEMS better than he is. If he could put up his odd-year numbers every year, he could really help a team, his even-year ones, he'd be on the bench or out of the league. But because his skill set is so narrow, one year looks much like another. If the glass looks half full, he'll stick around; half empty, he's gone.

I was talking about his plate work. His fielding stats for '11 were appalling across the board: traditional fielding percentage and errors, zone ratings, and fan evaluations. And yet, and yet, I don't put much weight on fpc or errors for a third baseman. The non-traditional fielding stats all come with the caveat that you should look at at least a three-year average, and last year really was unusually bad. And yet, his fielding stats were appalling across the board.

If I were a GM paying him $5.5M, I'd probably rationalize it like this: "If he can hit .220 with 37 homers, 35 doubles, and 75 walks, and field well enough to hold the position, he can help us. ANYONE should be able to hit .220, and he's put up those other numbers and fielded well enough regularly. Plus, if he can hit .240, cut his strikeouts to 180, and field like an average third baseman, he can help us a lot. None of those goals seem unreasonable or out of reach."

On the other hand, if his power drops the least little bit, or if it turns out last year's fielding is the way it's going to be, he doesn't have enough else going for him, I don't think, to hang around as a DH and corner IF/OF sub. A lot would depend on who else the Orioles might play at third, I'd imagine. It's an interesting case, but it would drive me nuts if I were an Orioles fan.

[Nimrod]

Can any of you sabrmatricians please tell me what stat the Orioles used to justify paying Mark Reynolds any money whatsoever?

The last two years he has hit around .200, struck out 39% of his AB's,
has almost twice as many K's as Hits is a lousy fielder, and half of his outs are K's.

I know he hits 30+ HR's but, IMO that can't make up for all the other horrible stats. 30 HR's is good but he only gets about 100 hits per year. There must be a minor league player somewhere who can do better.

Please inform me.

As of today,he is hitting a whopping .160.He is the only Oriole regular who has failed to hit a homer and has already struck out 11 times!Even if he was Brooks Robinson with the glove,he would still be Bill Bergen with the bat.

[Second Base Coach]

He is on too may Fantasy Baseball free agent lists right now to be long for the league. The day he stops looking great in batting practice will be the day he gets waived in real life.

[leewileyfan]

Mark Reynolds seems to be a mixed blessing [curse] for BAL. On the one hand his breezy bat can generate some significant power at the cost of exorbitant numbers of whiffs. Even that may be a blessing in that each whiff is a DP NOT hit into. Reynolds hits into surprisingly few DP's.

In 2011, he generated batting runs created at a rate 0f .1428 runs per plate appearance. It wasn't pretty; but his 620 PA created 88.5 runs against a League average of .1170, or 67.1 batting runs created for the same number of PA's. That's +21.4 batting runs above League average. You stock a lineup with 9 guys [including the DH] and you's have 246.6 batting runs above average for your batting order.

To get a grasp of how much Reynolds costs BAL on defense, I ran 3B comps for all A.L. teams in 2011. A.L. 3B AVERAGED a rating of .949 in 2011 [NOT fielding percentage], with BAL tied for last, at .928. By my defense metric [whole 'nother thread here] that puts BAL [all roster players at 3B, 2011] at -5 Defense Runs below League average.

All by himself, Reynolds was .921, or -6 DR on a seasonal basis. Adjusted for his playing time [68%] of all team 3B innings played, I have him costing -3.62 DR for his innings played.

When we consider MLB positional turnover in a given season [example = teams averaged 4-6 players at 3B in 2011] the damage done by one players is diluted by playing time.

Match up those batting rates on runs created [versus League] against defense runs lost [versus League] and I can see Reynolds being in the lineup, even if his play "ain't pretty."

[Bothrops Atrox]

Reynolds may not a deserving starter, but a guy who can put up a 110 OPS+ from 3B is a valuable commodity to have off the bench in case of injury or to DH occasionally etc. WAR (for what it is worth) sees him as a below average, but above replacement player for his career. This seems about right. Those players are not free or easily available, so that is where their value comes from. OF course he is very overpaid, but that is a different story.

[Jackaroo Dave]

Reynolds may not a deserving starter, but a guy who can put up a 110 OPS+ from 3B is a valuable commodity to have off the bench in case of injury or to DH occasionally etc. WAR (for what it is worth) sees him as a below average, but above replacement player for his career. This seems about right. Those players are not free or easily available, so that is where their value comes from. OF course he is very overpaid, but that is a different story.

I'd be surprised if a real third baseman with a 110 ops+ couldn't get a full time gig somewhere. Over the past 10 years, for players who qualified for the batting title and played at least 60% of their games at third, the median ops+ for the majors was 107, for the AL, 106.

(Edit: NINE seasons, not ten. Like a dope, I entered 2003-12.)

From that group, there were exactly 25 seasons with ops+ higher than Reynolds's 119 last year. Of course if you loosen the criteria a little, he'd move down a lot, and there's a debate about whether he's a legitimate third baseman. But top ten in the majors does not seem unreasonable to me pre-2012. But given his fluctuations from quite good to dreadful, I'm certainly not going to predict what will happen to him. I feel like Charles Manson's lawyer, but above-average hitting third basemen are not just lying around waiting to be picked up.

[jimm]

See Dave Kingman. Kong power is a commodity. Should he start, not ideally...