Total Zone Runs

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Still on the lookout for a fielding stat that is actually indicative.

How do we feel about total zone runs?

[leewileyfan]

Still on the lookout for a fielding stat that is actually indicative.

How do we feel about total zone runs?

Depends upon what you mean by "indicative"? It's an earnest question, in that some defense metric sort out performance vs. "true talent;" others use +/-; others rely on batted ball expectancy zones; some disregard all pop flys; and others, combining some/all of the above, seek to project future performance and the economics of the payroll: marketability.

I simply like to focus on player defensive performance at a position, year-to-year or over a career ... in a way that allows comps across several generations of play.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

By "indicative" I meant if it is actually worth using. Albert Pujols is the second on the all-time leader board for TZR at first base. I doubt he's the second greatest fielding first bagger, but is his statistic in any way accurate in terms of hw great/average/awful he is as a fielder?

[leewileyfan]

Tyrus..Cobb:

I'd be willing to dive into this a bit; and to that end, I've identified all 1B whom I'd compare defensively to Albert Pujols. My sphere of interest in defense is [1901-Present], so I don't go back into 19th Century players at all.

Here's the cast of 1B my metric identifies as possible glove contenders with Pujols. They are grouped by the times in which they played:

Deadball Era:

Jiggs Donahue
Fred Tenney
Stuffy McInnis
Chick Gandil
George "Highpockets" Kelly
Chick Gandil
Jack Burns

Live Ball through WW II:

Frank McCormick
George McQuinn
Elbie Fletcher
Ferris Fain
Gil Hodges
Stan Musial
Vic Power

Post-War and Expansion Years:

Ernie Banks
Joe Pepitone
Donn Clendennon
Bob Robertson
George Scott
John Mayberry
Lee May
Keith Hernandez
Rod Carew
Chris Chambliss
Eddie Murray
Bill Buckner
Don Mattingly

Pumped Power and Expansion:

Wally Joyner
Mark Grace
Will Clark
Rafael Palmeiro
Jeff Bagwell
Andres Galarraga
Todd Helton
John Olerud
Tony Pena
Mark Teixeira

Right off the bat. the latter group boils down to two 1B defensively ... Albert Pujols and Todd Helton. For the rest, moving most recent back to Deadball Era might take some time. Is this what you have in mind?

You'd be getting my metric results, not TZR [which you already have].

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Do you have a website or blog further explaining your metric? You've posted it before but is there another source(s) where you go into it deeper? Being as objective as you can, how accurate do you believe it is?

[leewileyfan]

Tyrus:

I don't have a blog; but I have opened a thread here on the Sabermetrics, etc. board: Evolving MLB Defense, 1901-1929, 2B.

Actually, my research encompasses eight fielding positions, pitchers excluded, from 1901 through the Present.

Posts 1 and 2 introduce the concept and provide some detail for the method. Post 7 addresses Equivalence. Post 8 provides a sample evaluation and Post 9 provides a step-by-step for player comps at 2B: Collins v. Hornsby.

Post 12 introduces my concept of Player X and invites comments and suggestions. Post 13 asks for feedback.

I have been heartened by about 350 "hits" to the thread and some outside-the-thread requests for player defensive evaluations. I would really appreciate some added, similar questions and responses to this particular thread, as I am considering another shot at publication, this time via a more direct route.

You ask how much faith I have in the metric. Well, just for openers, I do have a pretty fair base of data, both personal and "hearsay" that brings my frame of reference back to 1901, through the recollections of my grandfather, who was born in 1859 and caught for some old clubs in the D.C. - Baltimore area, one affiliated with the Orioles. My father was scouted by the Cubs in 1918; and his brother was a non-roster bullpen catcher for the Reds a few later. I played sandlot and some sponsored club ball between 1944 and 1953 ... then came the Army.

The family background is listed only for FRAME OF REFERENCE, NOT at all as a claim for credibility based on "stories" and "folklore." I was an eager listener as a kid and growing up; so when I decided to tackle the construction of a metric, I merely had a closet full of Devil's Advocates "looking over my shoulder.

I been a personal observer of the game since 1939 or so. My perspective is NOT I've seen 'em all - s take my word for it. However, I do believe that in building the metric I did have a sound data base of reference to build on. One thin I know: You cannot lie to yourself and get away with it.

In all humility, I believe the metric and its evaluations are excellent. Criticisms so far have dealt with "bias" issues some have observed:

a. Pitching staff K's and their effect on position player opportunity. I address this by allowing that at extremes [one team has 1,300 pitching staff K's and another has only 700] we do have impact especially at a team level, where the opportunity factor is 600 opportunities over 162 games. That is perhaps 3.73 batted ball chances per game that position players on the lower K team may lose to balls not put in play. At that, I apportion the impact as shared among 9 defensive positions. The "run" value, team-wise, may be as high as 66 runs between the teams at the extremes. This is rare; but I provide formulae for apportioning the impact, by position.

b. Pitcher handedness and ground ball/fly ball tendencies and park factors. I do NOT address these, as I believe they merely offer noise for most positions. I believe I can stand pat on this position, merely for appreciation of the results without such added modifiers.

I hope this all provides enough data for you to explore this with me. All I ask for is an open mind and some feedback.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I'll definitely look into it. It would be really cool to know the guy who comes up with the defensive metric of the future:cap:

One more question for this thread: through what medium do you wish to publish your metric? An entire book? An article somewhere?

[leewileyfan]

I'm hoping to go BOOK form. However, as an older guy, happily retired -and enjoying it, I might go any route - even gradually laying it out here on the boards, if the Mods will stand for it. Heck, it's copywriteded and I'm a happy camper - published or unpublished.

[leewileyfan]

By "indicative" I meant if it is actually worth using. Albert Pujols is the second on the all-time leader board for TZR at first base. I doubt he's the second greatest fielding first bagger, but is his statistic in any way accurate in terms of hw great/average/awful he is as a fielder?

Tyrus: I've posted a study of 1B defense [1901-Present] on the Evolving MLB Defense thread I started last month. Let me know what you think of the results.