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MLB starting pitcher ratings with projected w/l record

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  • MLB starting pitcher ratings with projected w/l record

    I've just finished a starting pitcher log that shows the players overall rating and a projected won/loss record to compare with its actual won/loss record. It’ll list each games rating as well as an overall rating. (Higher rating is better. Rating is made up of basic, but important, pitching stats).

    It’ll also project if the pitcher threw well enough to actually win the game or were they the benefit of great run support.

    The projected won/loss record is a better indication, in my opinion, on how the pitcher is throwing. Their overall or actual won/loss record is influenced by their teams run support, bullpen and other factors. The metric I’ve created takes the majority of those factors out of the equation.

    Here’s the link. (you'll see all 2012 pitchers that have started a game) Click a pitcher to get their stats and log.

    http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog

    I’ll continue to add past seasons so we can compare pitchers and era’s. I think it’s a different way of looking at pitchers and will show how a pitcher may be better than their “stats” suggest or who may be worse.

    Look at a couple of the 2012 Red Sox starters: Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. If it wasn't for their run support, my numbers suggest, they'd be 2-7 and 1-7 respectively instead of 5-2 and 4-6.

    I thought some may be interested. I have all 2011 and 2012 starters listed for all teams. I also have NYY teams from 1960-2012, Arizona from 1998-2012 and the NY Mets from 1962-2012. I'll add more this week. Or if anybody has a particular team they'd like added I can do a block like I've done with the others. Years from 1960 to 2012.

  • #2
    Just added all Cincy Reds starting pitchers from 1960-2012. take a look at some of their past teams.

    Comment


    • #3
      Added Baltimore teams from 1960-2012 also. Plus it loads faster than before. take a look at a few pitchers and see if they pitched as well as their record says.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by ebemiss View Post
        I've just finished a starting pitcher log that shows the players overall rating and a projected won/loss record to compare with its actual won/loss record. It’ll list each games rating as well as an overall rating. (Higher rating is better. Rating is made up of basic, but important, pitching stats).

        It’ll also project if the pitcher threw well enough to actually win the game or were they the benefit of great run support.

        The projected won/loss record is a better indication, in my opinion, on how the pitcher is throwing. Their overall or actual won/loss record is influenced by their teams run support, bullpen and other factors. The metric I’ve created takes the majority of those factors out of the equation.

        Here’s the link. (you'll see all 2012 pitchers that have started a game) Click a pitcher to get their stats and log.

        http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog

        I’ll continue to add past seasons so we can compare pitchers and era’s. I think it’s a different way of looking at pitchers and will show how a pitcher may be better than their “stats” suggest or who may be worse.

        Look at a couple of the 2012 Red Sox starters: Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. If it wasn't for their run support, my numbers suggest, they'd be 2-7 and 1-7 respectively instead of 5-2 and 4-6.

        I thought some may be interested. I have all 2011 and 2012 starters listed for all teams. I also have NYY teams from 1960-2012, Arizona from 1998-2012 and the NY Mets from 1962-2012. I'll add more this week. Or if anybody has a particular team they'd like added I can do a block like I've done with the others. Years from 1960 to 2012.
        As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
        Holding a pitcher accountable for how many runs his team scores is like holding the designated hitter accountable for how many runs his team allows.

        An individual statistic is meaningful only if it is based strictly on what the player does and not on what the other players on his team do.

        Contrary to what most baseball fans claim, a pitched ball which is hit into play is not a strike.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
          As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
          A lot of the time, people with an interest in this kind of data are particularly interested in the win expectation of the pitcher's team when the pitcher is starting, rather than in, say, justice or comparative ranings.
          Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

          Comment


          • #6
            I believe my projected won/loss record and overall rating is a better indication of how "good" a pitcher is compared to his actual won/loss record. Does anybody really think Cliff Lee is an 0-3 pitcher. NO. My rankings show he should be 5-1. In my opinion that is more accurate than his 0-3 record based on how well he's pitched.

            P W.-P L.-Act W.-Act L-Rating-ERA
            Cliff Lee 5 1 0 3 42.99 3.48

            Comment


            • #7
              An .833 winning % seems a bit optimistic for a guy with a 3.48 ERA...
              My top 10 players:

              1. Babe Ruth
              2. Barry Bonds
              3. Ty Cobb
              4. Ted Williams
              5. Willie Mays
              6. Alex Rodriguez
              7. Hank Aaron
              8. Honus Wagner
              9. Lou Gehrig
              10. Mickey Mantle

              Comment


              • #8
                [QUOTE=GiambiJuice;2025497]An .833 winning % seems a bit optimistic for a guy with a 3.48 ERA...[/QUO

                A .000 actual win pct for a guy with a 3.48 era is way more ridiculous when judging a pitcher.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
                  As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
                  Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. objpitching.pdf
                  The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
                    Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. [ATTACH]110066[/ATTACH]
                    Good stuff. That's exactly what I've tried to do with my ratings and projected w/l record.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      duplicate post
                      Last edited by ebemiss; 06-19-2012, 10:28 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
                        Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. [ATTACH]110066[/ATTACH]
                        Very well done!!! This trumps MLB pitching stats, as you completely leave out run support. Bill James should be very proud of you.

                        I guess I should ask how you define "runs". Is this the # of runs allowed under their watch or the # of batters who reached base under their watch who ultimately scored?
                        Last edited by BiZmaRK; 06-19-2012, 10:42 AM.
                        Holding a pitcher accountable for how many runs his team scores is like holding the designated hitter accountable for how many runs his team allows.

                        An individual statistic is meaningful only if it is based strictly on what the player does and not on what the other players on his team do.

                        Contrary to what most baseball fans claim, a pitched ball which is hit into play is not a strike.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
                          As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
                          I've taken the pitchers run support TOTALLY out of the equation. that's what I've been trying to get across with my projections and rankings.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ebemiss View Post
                            I've taken the pitchers run support TOTALLY out of the equation. that's what I've been trying to get across with my projections and rankings.
                            Why the need to take run support out of the equation? Pitching stats don't include run support. In other words, stats like W-L, which do factor in run support aren't really pitchers stats, but team stats.
                            Holding a pitcher accountable for how many runs his team scores is like holding the designated hitter accountable for how many runs his team allows.

                            An individual statistic is meaningful only if it is based strictly on what the player does and not on what the other players on his team do.

                            Contrary to what most baseball fans claim, a pitched ball which is hit into play is not a strike.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
                              Why the need to take run support out of the equation? Pitching stats don't include run support. In other words, stats like W-L, which do factor in run support aren't really pitchers stats, but team stats.
                              I created a new Won Loss stat NOT USING RUN SUPPORT that is different than their actual won/loss stat. That was the point of me posting these.

                              Comment

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