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MLB starting pitcher ratings with projected w/l record

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  • BiZmaRK
    replied
    Originally posted by ebemiss View Post
    I hear you. I listen to guys on radio and television go on about a pitcher who has a great won/loss record failing to realize his team scores 6 or 7 runs a game for him.

    I think some of the public has come around to "our" line of thinking. They would have never named Felix Hernandez the CY Young a few years back with a 14-13 record (?). You are correct though, getting the rest of them to get on board that the w/l stat is meaningless as it's currently constructed is another matter.

    I look back at some of the past CY Young award winners and all anybody cared about was wins. Thanks for the feedback I appreciate it.
    I created a thread which touches on this http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...-players-don-t

    Leave a comment:


  • ebemiss
    replied
    Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
    Creating these stats is highly appreciated and very useful. However, a more difficult task is to convince the general public that pitcher's W-L records aren't individual pitching stats, but team stats in which a particular pitcher met a fairly arbitrary criteria of innings pitched.
    I hear you. I listen to guys on radio and television go on about a pitcher who has a great won/loss record failing to realize his team scores 6 or 7 runs a game for him.

    I think some of the public has come around to "our" line of thinking. They would have never named Felix Hernandez the CY Young a few years back with a 14-13 record (?). You are correct though, getting the rest of them to get on board that the w/l stat is meaningless as it's currently constructed is another matter.

    I look back at some of the past CY Young award winners and all anybody cared about was wins. Thanks for the feedback I appreciate it.

    Leave a comment:


  • BiZmaRK
    replied
    Originally posted by ebemiss View Post
    I created a new Won Loss stat NOT USING RUN SUPPORT that is different than their actual won/loss stat. That was the point of me posting these.
    Creating these stats is highly appreciated and very useful. However, a more difficult task is to convince the general public that pitcher's W-L records aren't individual pitching stats, but team stats in which a particular pitcher met a fairly arbitrary criteria of innings pitched.

    Leave a comment:


  • ebemiss
    replied
    Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
    Why the need to take run support out of the equation? Pitching stats don't include run support. In other words, stats like W-L, which do factor in run support aren't really pitchers stats, but team stats.
    I created a new Won Loss stat NOT USING RUN SUPPORT that is different than their actual won/loss stat. That was the point of me posting these.

    Leave a comment:


  • BiZmaRK
    replied
    Originally posted by ebemiss View Post
    I've taken the pitchers run support TOTALLY out of the equation. that's what I've been trying to get across with my projections and rankings.
    Why the need to take run support out of the equation? Pitching stats don't include run support. In other words, stats like W-L, which do factor in run support aren't really pitchers stats, but team stats.

    Leave a comment:


  • ebemiss
    replied
    Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
    As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
    I've taken the pitchers run support TOTALLY out of the equation. that's what I've been trying to get across with my projections and rankings.

    Leave a comment:


  • BiZmaRK
    replied
    Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
    Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. [ATTACH]110066[/ATTACH]
    Very well done!!! This trumps MLB pitching stats, as you completely leave out run support. Bill James should be very proud of you.

    I guess I should ask how you define "runs". Is this the # of runs allowed under their watch or the # of batters who reached base under their watch who ultimately scored?
    Last edited by BiZmaRK; 06-19-2012, 10:42 AM.

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  • ebemiss
    replied
    duplicate post
    Last edited by ebemiss; 06-19-2012, 10:28 AM.

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  • ebemiss
    replied
    Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
    Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. [ATTACH]110066[/ATTACH]
    Good stuff. That's exactly what I've tried to do with my ratings and projected w/l record.

    Leave a comment:


  • scorekeeper
    replied
    Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
    As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
    Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. objpitching.pdf

    Leave a comment:


  • ebemiss
    replied
    [QUOTE=GiambiJuice;2025497]An .833 winning % seems a bit optimistic for a guy with a 3.48 ERA...[/QUO

    A .000 actual win pct for a guy with a 3.48 era is way more ridiculous when judging a pitcher.

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  • GiambiJuice
    replied
    An .833 winning % seems a bit optimistic for a guy with a 3.48 ERA...

    Leave a comment:


  • ebemiss
    replied
    I believe my projected won/loss record and overall rating is a better indication of how "good" a pitcher is compared to his actual won/loss record. Does anybody really think Cliff Lee is an 0-3 pitcher. NO. My rankings show he should be 5-1. In my opinion that is more accurate than his 0-3 record based on how well he's pitched.

    P W.-P L.-Act W.-Act L-Rating-ERA
    Cliff Lee 5 1 0 3 42.99 3.48

    Leave a comment:


  • Jackaroo Dave
    replied
    Originally posted by BiZmaRK View Post
    As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.
    A lot of the time, people with an interest in this kind of data are particularly interested in the win expectation of the pitcher's team when the pitcher is starting, rather than in, say, justice or comparative ranings.

    Leave a comment:


  • BiZmaRK
    replied
    Originally posted by ebemiss View Post
    I've just finished a starting pitcher log that shows the players overall rating and a projected won/loss record to compare with its actual won/loss record. It’ll list each games rating as well as an overall rating. (Higher rating is better. Rating is made up of basic, but important, pitching stats).

    It’ll also project if the pitcher threw well enough to actually win the game or were they the benefit of great run support.

    The projected won/loss record is a better indication, in my opinion, on how the pitcher is throwing. Their overall or actual won/loss record is influenced by their teams run support, bullpen and other factors. The metric I’ve created takes the majority of those factors out of the equation.

    Here’s the link. (you'll see all 2012 pitchers that have started a game) Click a pitcher to get their stats and log.

    http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog

    I’ll continue to add past seasons so we can compare pitchers and era’s. I think it’s a different way of looking at pitchers and will show how a pitcher may be better than their “stats” suggest or who may be worse.

    Look at a couple of the 2012 Red Sox starters: Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. If it wasn't for their run support, my numbers suggest, they'd be 2-7 and 1-7 respectively instead of 5-2 and 4-6.

    I thought some may be interested. I have all 2011 and 2012 starters listed for all teams. I also have NYY teams from 1960-2012, Arizona from 1998-2012 and the NY Mets from 1962-2012. I'll add more this week. Or if anybody has a particular team they'd like added I can do a block like I've done with the others. Years from 1960 to 2012.
    As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.

    Leave a comment:

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