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    Can any of the stat gurus here help me find the Yankees w/l record since the beginning of 2004 with and without Derek Jeter in the lineup and with and without Alex Rodriguez in the lineup?
    My top 10 players:

    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Barry Bonds
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Ted Williams
    5. Willie Mays
    6. Alex Rodriguez
    7. Hank Aaron
    8. Honus Wagner
    9. Lou Gehrig
    10. Mickey Mantle

  • #2
    It's not exactly what you're looking for, but in this article (from last July) it says the Yankees are "54-26 overall during his (Jeter) stays on the disabled list."
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/02/sp...ng-spirit.html

    and...

    The Yankees haven’t been affected much over the past three seasons when Rodriguez is not in the lineup. Since 2010, they’re a combined 63-29 (.685 win percentage) without him and 188-142 (.570 win percentage) with him.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yan...-without-a-rod

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by ipitch View Post
      It's not exactly what you're looking for, but in this article (from last July) it says the Yankees are "54-26 overall during his (Jeter) stays on the disabled list."
      http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/02/sp...ng-spirit.html

      and...

      The Yankees haven’t been affected much over the past three seasons when Rodriguez is not in the lineup. Since 2010, they’re a combined 63-29 (.685 win percentage) without him and 188-142 (.570 win percentage) with him.
      http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yan...-without-a-rod
      Very interesting. I'd really like to see the numbers going back to 2004.
      My top 10 players:

      1. Babe Ruth
      2. Barry Bonds
      3. Ty Cobb
      4. Ted Williams
      5. Willie Mays
      6. Alex Rodriguez
      7. Hank Aaron
      8. Honus Wagner
      9. Lou Gehrig
      10. Mickey Mantle

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
        Very interesting. I'd really like to see the numbers going back to 2004.
        I was able to do it manually through baseball-reference game logs.

        In games Jeter played, the Yankees were 782-531(.5956 winning percentage) from 2004-2012
        In games A-Rod played, the Yankees were 726-495(.5946 winning percentage) from 2004-2012

        In total, the Yankees were 831 - 566 (.5949 winning percentage) from 2004-2012


        So to answer your question, without Jeter they were 49-35 (.5833 winning percentage)
        without A-Rod they were 105-71 (.5966 winning percentage)

        Pretty much exactly the same with without them. I didn't look at games when they were both out, and this includes games that they didn't start and may have only gotten 1 at bat

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Brooklyn View Post
          I was able to do it manually through baseball-reference game logs.

          In games Jeter played, the Yankees were 782-531(.5956 winning percentage) from 2004-2012
          In games A-Rod played, the Yankees were 726-495(.5946 winning percentage) from 2004-2012

          In total, the Yankees were 831 - 566 (.5949 winning percentage) from 2004-2012


          So to answer your question, without Jeter they were 49-35 (.5833 winning percentage)
          without A-Rod they were 105-71 (.5966 winning percentage)

          Pretty much exactly the same with without them. I didn't look at games when they were both out, and this includes games that they didn't start and may have only gotten 1 at bat
          Great work. Thank you.

          Stats like these seem to undermine WAR just a bit. Then again, a "replacement player" on the Yankees will generally be better than a replacement player on an average team.
          My top 10 players:

          1. Babe Ruth
          2. Barry Bonds
          3. Ty Cobb
          4. Ted Williams
          5. Willie Mays
          6. Alex Rodriguez
          7. Hank Aaron
          8. Honus Wagner
          9. Lou Gehrig
          10. Mickey Mantle

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
            Great work. Thank you.

            Stats like these seem to undermine WAR just a bit. Then again, a "replacement player" on the Yankees will generally be better than a replacement player on an average team.
            Very interesting.

            for fun, I looked up an often injured player on a team that doens't have the luxury of spending money on back-up players, Jose Reyes (although the Mets did spend more than most for the better part of his Mets career)

            From 1993-2011, with Reyes in the line-up they went 546-504, for a .520 winning percentage
            same time period, with Reyes out of the line-up they went 174-233, for a .428 winning percentage

            Much more dramatic result than Jeter/A-Rod.

            If the Mets had played at the same clip without Reyes as they did with him, they would have went 212-195 when he was out - a 38 game difference over about 2.5 years worth of games, suggesting that he was worth about 15 wins a year. Of course, they had other injuries and it can't all be attributable to him, but still doesn't seem to correlate to his actual WAR

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Brooklyn View Post
              In games Jeter played, the Yankees were 782-531(.5956 winning percentage) from 2004-2012
              In games A-Rod played, the Yankees were 726-495(.5946 winning percentage) from 2004-2012

              In total, the Yankees were 831 - 566 (.5949 winning percentage) from 2004-2012


              So to answer your question, without Jeter they were 49-35 (.5833 winning percentage)
              without A-Rod they were 105-71 (.5966 winning percentage)

              Pretty much exactly the same with without them. I didn't look at games when they were both out, and this includes games that they didn't start and may have only gotten 1 at bat
              Good stuff. Can you do it for Jeter's entire career?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ipitch View Post
                Good stuff. Can you do it for Jeter's entire career?
                give me some time. I should have saved my original work, it would have been easier to build off of it

                Comment


                • #9
                  I wouldn't put too much into that if it's for a short time, a few weeks or more, how a team does with or without a certain player in the line up.

                  You would have to know if there was any other player out for a short time, on that same team. What was the schedule like, was it a good home team playing more games at home during that period, were they mostly on the road at that time.

                  What was the schedule during that time, playing the better teams, playing the lower level teams, playing a good team that was slumping at that time. Was the team your interested in, playing good, hitting good as a team.

                  There are other factors to consider other than who was missing from the line up and how the team made out during that period, not that simple.
                  Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 07-31-2012, 04:23 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                    Great work. Thank you.

                    Stats like these seem to undermine WAR just a bit. Then again, a "replacement player" on the Yankees will generally be better than a replacement player on an average team.
                    Additionally, Brett pointed out in another thread that at the highest level, additional wins are harder to come by than at the league average. but if you gain less than average by adding a superstar at the top level, you'll lose less than average by taking him out of the lineup.
                    Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ipitch View Post
                      Good stuff. Can you do it for Jeter's entire career?
                      Excluding 1995, since he only played 15 games in 1995 (all 2012 data through yesterday):

                      Yankees with Jeter: 1508-1001. W%: 60.1%
                      Yankees without Jeter: 109-72. W%: 60.2%

                      Almost exactly the same

                      If you want to include 2005:

                      Yankees with Jeter: 1513-1011. W%: 59.9%
                      Yankees without Jeter: 183-127. W%: 59.0%

                      Again, almost exactly the same


                      Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
                      I wouldn't put too much into that if it's for a short time, a few weeks or more, how a team does with or without a certain player in the line up.

                      You would have to know if there was any other player out for a short time, on that same team. What was the schedule like, was it a good home team playing more games at home during that period, were they mostly on the road at that time.

                      What was the schedule during that time, playing the better teams, playing the lower level teams, playing a good team that was slumping at that time. Was the team your interested in, playing good, hitting good as a team.

                      There are other factors to consider other than who was missing from the line up and how the team made out during that period, not that simple.
                      Agree this isn't conclusive, but over the course of his year he has missed more then a full season of games. The sample size is pretty good

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Brooklyn View Post
                        Excluding 1995, since he only played 15 games in 1995 (all 2012 data through yesterday):
                        Thanks much!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          In theory, if this query could be mechanized, it would be possible to repeat it for all players of interest, no? You could do team splits for the Yankees and every regular over a given era, for example?

                          This approach to player wins has always interested me, but I had no idea it could be actually be done. It's already proved very revealing, but of what, it would take a lot more studies to determine.

                          BBREF already has a stat measuring the theoretical impact of an individual player on a .500 team; this could be an empirical check.

                          I can see it's fraught with problems. With a player like Aaron, well, he's just not out of the lineup much, until he becomes a marginal player himself. And when a player is out of the lineup, the very adjustments the team may make will make the comparisons difficult. It's often not just popping a bench player in the star's slot. But maybe broad strokes viewed at a distance might provide some patterns.
                          Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Brooklyn View Post
                            Excluding 1995, since he only played 15 games in 1995 (all 2012 data through yesterday):

                            Yankees with Jeter: 1508-1001. W%: 60.1%
                            Yankees without Jeter: 109-72. W%: 60.2%

                            Almost exactly the same

                            If you want to include 2005:

                            Yankees with Jeter: 1513-1011. W%: 59.9%
                            Yankees without Jeter: 183-127. W%: 59.0%

                            Again, almost exactly the same




                            Agree this isn't conclusive, but over the course of his year he has missed more then a full season of games. The sample size is pretty good
                            Agreed Brooklyn, big enough sample, more revealing, more accurate.
                            I was speaking more of these broadcasters, talking about how a team did with a hitter out of the line up for a couple of weeks or so, that proves nothing. We need lots more info other than a regular out of the line up.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              What Shoeless said is correct. It's obvious that Reyes did not cause his team to win 14 extra games (a .092% gain), which would match the best year of any player in baseball history. It's also obvious that ARod and Jeter weren't replacement level players.

                              It's not accurate as well to imagine that the games they played reflected the same 'skill' as the games they didn't play. Players who are on 10 game hitting streaks are never benched; players who have nagging injuries, are ultra tired or are in hitting slumps are. So it's natural that it looks like the team doesn't do much worse, because of course they wouldn't if you take a slumping tired player out and replace them with someone that has 80% of their base skill level.

                              Moreover, consider Jeter. He has let's say 75 WAR in 2800 games. That's about 2.7%. In the 300 games he did not play that equals 8 wins. 8 wins in 300 games is well within the margin of error (i.e., luck.) Add in all the factors Shoeless mentioned plus selective 'sitting' of slumping players, and the luck factor alone is huge.

                              I admit it would be interesting to see if we could get this parcelled out to give 'adjusted' wins, but this is a fairly raw.
                              "It's better to look good, than be good."

                              Comment

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