which is more common

[brett]

Which occurs more on a single with the bases empty?

1) An overthrow at first base that allows the runner to advance to second.
2) The batter gets a single, but is out trying to stretch it for a double.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Are you asking for opinion or hard facts? If I had to guess, I'd say the first one

[dominik]

Which occurs more on a single with the bases empty?

1) An overthrow at first base that allows the runner to advance to second.
2) The batter gets a single, but is out trying to stretch it for a double.

do you mean 1) just on batted ball plays or also on catcher throws and pickoffs to first?

[ipitch]

Which occurs more on a single with the bases empty?

1) An overthrow at first base that allows the runner to advance to second.
2) The batter gets a single, but is out trying to stretch it for a double.

In MLB, I would put $10 on #1. At lower levels, I'd put $1,000 on #1.

[brett]

do you mean 1) just on batted ball plays or also on catcher throws and pickoffs to first?

I am looking for facts, but a sample such as one season would be valuable.

Situation 1: A play is SCORED a single, but there is an overthrow error on the same play which puts the runner on second. (Since this has to be scored a single it might be less likely than people think?)
Situation 2: A play is SCORED a single but the batter is out trying to stretch it into a double, or heading back to first after making a turn, in other words the single is erased on the same play.

Both must be scored a single, one ends up with the batter on second, one ends up with the batter out in the same play.


And ideally I'd like to know with the bases empty.

[leewileyfan]

My guess is that Option 1 is a very safe bet, because there is potential for that to happen on every ground ball that comes into the range of P, C, 2B, 3B, SS ... even a ground ball to the 1B, who makes a bad throw to the P covering first. Historically, with teams averaging around 4100 OUTS in a season, and with 1025 subtracted for K's, 65% of the remaining outs [almost 2,000] will involve the infield.

Best reference place for exact data? I guess play-by-play from Retrosheet would be the place to search.

[dominik]

My guess is that Option 1 is a very safe bet, because there is potential for that to happen on every ground ball that comes into the range of P, C, 2B, 3B, SS ... even a ground ball to the 1B, who makes a bad throw to the P covering first. Historically, with teams averaging around 4100 OUTS in a season, and with 1025 subtracted for K's, 65% of the remaining outs [almost 2,000] will involve the infield.

Best reference place for exact data? I guess play-by-play from Retrosheet would be the place to search.

yes but you have to consider that only singles count. most of the time there is a throwing Error it will be scored a ROE. so the throw must not only be errant but also late which should not happen as often (because ideally a fielder doesn't throw if he knows he is late).

considering this I would say 2) is more common but I don't really know. with all plays on first I would also pick 1)

[Ubiquitous]

In 2011 a batter was out trying to stretch a single into a double 242 times out of 28,418 singles. A batter took second or better 421 times on a ROE in 2011. Included in that 421 is 15 times the batter got to third, and 2 times the runner got all the way home. There were also 21 instances in which the batter got to second as part of a fielders choice in which no errors were committed or an error was committed somewhere besides on the batter.

If we're just talking throws to 1B then the batter has gotten to second or better 75 times with one of those times the batter getting to third.

[brett]

In 2011 a batter was out trying to stretch a single into a double 242 times out of 28,418 singles. A batter took second or better 421 times on a ROE in 2011. Included in that 421 is 15 times the batter got to third, and 2 times the runner got all the way home. There were also 21 instances in which the batter got to second as part of a fielders choice in which no errors were committed or an error was committed somewhere besides on the batter.

If we're just talking throws to 1B then the batter has gotten to second or better 75 times with one of those times the batter getting to third.

Any idea though on how many times the batter advanced on an error on a scored single.

[Ubiquitous]

Didn't see it was for singles on bases empty. Will have to rerun the numbers.

[Ubiquitous]

Okay, there were 15,959 singles hit in 2011 with the bases empty. On 134 of them the batter was out trying to get to second base. 84 times a batter recorded a single and advanced because of an errant throw to first base. 6 of those times the batter got to third. Twice the batter was thrown out.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

I am looking for facts, but a sample such as one season would be valuable.

Situation 1: A play is SCORED a single, but there is an overthrow error on the same play which puts the runner on second. (Since this has to be scored a single it might be less likely than people think?)
Situation 2: A play is SCORED a single but the batter is out trying to stretch it into a double, or heading back to first after making a turn, in other words the single is erased on the same play.

Both must be scored a single, one ends up with the batter on second, one ends up with the batter out in the same play.


And ideally I'd like to know with the bases empty.

That is rare extremely rare if you record how many times that takes place after a single.

I'm sure it does happen and obviously I don't watch every game, but have watched a good number of games this season and have yet to see it happen even one time. The number would be too small to be significant.

[brett]

Okay, there were 15,959 singles hit in 2011 with the bases empty. On 134 of them the batter was out trying to get to second base. 84 times a batter recorded a single and advanced because of an errant throw to first base. 6 of those times the batter got to third. Twice the batter was thrown out.

Fantastic, thanks.

[dominik]

Anecdote: getting thrown out on stretching a single to a double happened to me this season. I was also thrown out after I tried to advance to second on a single in a preseason game. I hit a liner to short right with kind of a shift on and the guy in RF tried to get me but was late and overthrew. I wanted to run to second but I didn't consider there was a brick wall behind the RF line so the ball bounced back into the field and the catcher who was backing up first threw me out on second.

considering those numbers I guess I'm a pretty bad baserunner.