For a while, I've been toying with two new metrics. They are very simple in premise, but difficult to compute because you have to go through so many box scores. I heartily accept criticism, constructive or not, and I believe I am prepared to defend against most arguments. I am still learning to ropes to creating new statistics, but I think this one is at the very least worth glancing at.
Before I begin, I'm going to say that I've made up a lot of data for the sake of ease. I don't have the patience to sift through a hundred box scores for a statistic that may be blasted to pieces by the end of this thread. I will tell you where I've fabricated data. Plus, hypothetical numbers never hurt in the explanation of a metric. Wish me luck:
In 2006, Brewers' Ben Sheets pitched on April 21st against the Reds. Milwaukee won due to his endeavors. The Reds scored only two runs (both earned) against Sheets in seven innings. What I will use is something I call "strength runs" to determine how strong this start was, because everyone knows 2 ER allowed against a strong team isn't equal to 2 allowed against a weak team.
First, we need to see how strong the Reds' offense was that season up to the date of Sheets' start.
Where IP represents the innings played by the Reds offense, and ER means the earned runs they scored against their opponent.
Now I'm going to add another column labeled "STR" to represent strength runs (this is where I'm making up data)
A strength run is awarded based on tiers. For example, the Reds scored 7 ER against the Cubs on Apr. 13th. Up until that date, the Cubs' pitching was allowing the 7th most earned runs in the NL. Thus, they fall in the "subpar" tier.
first or 2nd most ER allowed= bottom tier (1.0 strength runs)
3rd-5th most ER allowed= lower tier (1.1 SR)
6-8= subpar tier (1.2 SR)
9-11= surpar tier (1.3 SR)
12-14= upper tier (1.4 SR)
15-16= top tier (1.5 SR)
The Reds' offense scored 7 ER against a subpar earned run-allowing team, so every ER they scored was worth 1.2 strength runs. 7 x 1.2= 8.4. The next day, they scored only one run, but it was against a team in the top tier, so every run was worth 1.5 strength runs. Etc.
(I do not calculate SR for the first few days of the season because teams are only starting to show how strong/weak they are, hence the dashes).
From April 13th to April 19th, the Reds' offense accumulated 55.4 strength runs over 70.1 innings played.
Back to Sheets' star: Sheets was facing an offense with a 7.09 offensive strength ERA (ostrERA). That is, the Reds offense scored 7.09 strength runs for every nine innings they played. From the 13th to the 20th, of all NL teams, this places the Reds at the third highest ostrERA (I say "oh-stra"). Thus, they're in the upper tier. We go back to the same formatted tiers but with different labels:
first or second highest ostrERA= top tier (1.0 SR)
3-5= upper tier (1.1 SR)
6-8= surpar tier (1.2 SR)
9-11= subpar tier (1.3 SR)
12-14= lower tier (1.4 SR)
15-16= bottom tier (1.5 SR)
For every earned run Sheets allowed to Reds, he was only charged with surrendering 1.1 strength runs because he faced a difficult offense. In 7 IP, his two ER amounts to 2.2 strength runs allowed (SRA). His strERA for this start was 2.83, as opposed to his regular ERA of 2.57. To determine the season's strERA, you simply add up his total SRA and divide by IP. However, day-by-day data is required, as you can see, so you would need a powerful entity like BBRef to provide it.
The second portion of this thread is dedicated to the pitchers' strength of start (SOS). Very simple. Start with five points and subtract the SRA. Multiply this total by one if the starting pitcher goes less than 7 innings pitched. Multiply by 1.1 for a pitcher who goes <7 but >8 IP. Multiply by 1.2 if 8<IP>9, multiply by 1.3 if 9<IP>10 , and multiply by 1.4 for anything over 10 innings pitched. Sheets' SOS on 4/21/06 was 2.42 because he allowed 2.2 strength runs (5-2.2=2.8), but pitched for exactly seven innings (2.8 x 1.1=2.42). Season totals are determined by adding everything up and/or dividing by games started.
My metric has no regards for parks or defense. Not only can both be subjectively adjusted by a fan, but I want to be sure this is something actually worthwhile before pursuing that complicated stuff.
Awarding strength runs based on team rank isn't as useful as tiers. I use tiers to compensate for reality. Many things can happen to make a team one run scored above or below another. It's like saying a guy who has 201 hits was better than the guy with 200 hits. Grouping the teams allows us to do what we would if we were simply eyeballing the numbers all at once. Oh, these teams are very good at scoring/preventing runs, these next few aren't as good, the next few were rather poor, and the last few were dreadful. That sort of thing.
That's it. I await BBF responses. I'm suited for all incoming missiles, bombs, torpedoes, dirty bombs, ICBMs, and explosive packages.
Before I begin, I'm going to say that I've made up a lot of data for the sake of ease. I don't have the patience to sift through a hundred box scores for a statistic that may be blasted to pieces by the end of this thread. I will tell you where I've fabricated data. Plus, hypothetical numbers never hurt in the explanation of a metric. Wish me luck:
In 2006, Brewers' Ben Sheets pitched on April 21st against the Reds. Milwaukee won due to his endeavors. The Reds scored only two runs (both earned) against Sheets in seven innings. What I will use is something I call "strength runs" to determine how strong this start was, because everyone knows 2 ER allowed against a strong team isn't equal to 2 allowed against a weak team.
First, we need to see how strong the Reds' offense was that season up to the date of Sheets' start.
Code:
Reds Opponent IP ER scored Apr 3, 2006 CHC 9 6 Apr 5, 2006 CHC 8 6 Apr 6, 2006 PIT 8 6 Apr 7, 2006 PIT 8 7 Apr 8, 2006 PIT 8 8 Apr 9, 2006 PIT 9 3 Apr 11, 2006 CHC 9 9 Apr 12, 2006 CHC 9 1 Apr 13, 2006 CHC 9 7 Apr 14, 2006 STL 9 1 Apr 15, 2006 STL 9 3 Apr 16, 2006 STL 9 6 Apr 17, 2006 FLA 8 8 Apr 18, 2006 FLA 9 5 Apr 19, 2006 FLA 8.333 7 Apr 20, 2006 MIL 9 10
Now I'm going to add another column labeled "STR" to represent strength runs (this is where I'm making up data)
Code:
Reds Opponent IP ER scored Strength Runs Apr 3, 2006 CHC 9 6 - Apr 5, 2006 CHC 8 6 - Apr 6, 2006 PIT 8 6 - Apr 7, 2006 PIT 8 7 - Apr 8, 2006 PIT 8 8 - Apr 9, 2006 PIT 9 3 - Apr 11, 2006 CHC 9 9 - Apr 12, 2006 CHC 9 1 - Apr 13, 2006 CHC 9 7 8.4 Apr 14, 2006 STL 9 1 1.5 Apr 15, 2006 STL 9 3 4.5 Apr 16, 2006 STL 9 6 9 Apr 17, 2006 FLA 8 8 8 Apr 18, 2006 FLA 9 5 5 Apr 19, 2006 FLA 8.333 7 7 Apr 20, 2006 MIL 9 10 12
first or 2nd most ER allowed= bottom tier (1.0 strength runs)
3rd-5th most ER allowed= lower tier (1.1 SR)
6-8= subpar tier (1.2 SR)
9-11= surpar tier (1.3 SR)
12-14= upper tier (1.4 SR)
15-16= top tier (1.5 SR)
The Reds' offense scored 7 ER against a subpar earned run-allowing team, so every ER they scored was worth 1.2 strength runs. 7 x 1.2= 8.4. The next day, they scored only one run, but it was against a team in the top tier, so every run was worth 1.5 strength runs. Etc.
(I do not calculate SR for the first few days of the season because teams are only starting to show how strong/weak they are, hence the dashes).
From April 13th to April 19th, the Reds' offense accumulated 55.4 strength runs over 70.1 innings played.
Back to Sheets' star: Sheets was facing an offense with a 7.09 offensive strength ERA (ostrERA). That is, the Reds offense scored 7.09 strength runs for every nine innings they played. From the 13th to the 20th, of all NL teams, this places the Reds at the third highest ostrERA (I say "oh-stra"). Thus, they're in the upper tier. We go back to the same formatted tiers but with different labels:
first or second highest ostrERA= top tier (1.0 SR)
3-5= upper tier (1.1 SR)
6-8= surpar tier (1.2 SR)
9-11= subpar tier (1.3 SR)
12-14= lower tier (1.4 SR)
15-16= bottom tier (1.5 SR)
For every earned run Sheets allowed to Reds, he was only charged with surrendering 1.1 strength runs because he faced a difficult offense. In 7 IP, his two ER amounts to 2.2 strength runs allowed (SRA). His strERA for this start was 2.83, as opposed to his regular ERA of 2.57. To determine the season's strERA, you simply add up his total SRA and divide by IP. However, day-by-day data is required, as you can see, so you would need a powerful entity like BBRef to provide it.
The second portion of this thread is dedicated to the pitchers' strength of start (SOS). Very simple. Start with five points and subtract the SRA. Multiply this total by one if the starting pitcher goes less than 7 innings pitched. Multiply by 1.1 for a pitcher who goes <7 but >8 IP. Multiply by 1.2 if 8<IP>9, multiply by 1.3 if 9<IP>10 , and multiply by 1.4 for anything over 10 innings pitched. Sheets' SOS on 4/21/06 was 2.42 because he allowed 2.2 strength runs (5-2.2=2.8), but pitched for exactly seven innings (2.8 x 1.1=2.42). Season totals are determined by adding everything up and/or dividing by games started.
My metric has no regards for parks or defense. Not only can both be subjectively adjusted by a fan, but I want to be sure this is something actually worthwhile before pursuing that complicated stuff.
Awarding strength runs based on team rank isn't as useful as tiers. I use tiers to compensate for reality. Many things can happen to make a team one run scored above or below another. It's like saying a guy who has 201 hits was better than the guy with 200 hits. Grouping the teams allows us to do what we would if we were simply eyeballing the numbers all at once. Oh, these teams are very good at scoring/preventing runs, these next few aren't as good, the next few were rather poor, and the last few were dreadful. That sort of thing.
That's it. I await BBF responses. I'm suited for all incoming missiles, bombs, torpedoes, dirty bombs, ICBMs, and explosive packages.
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