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  • Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

    This chart shows Road Relative OPS+ or rrOPS+ which essentially puts a players RAW OPS+ into better perspective.

    It gives a more accurate depiction of a player's true ability, by giving him his home park as a road park...so his rrOPS+ is him playing in all parks equally.

    The method is simple.

    Players road SA divided by his leagues road SA. Same thing with OBP. These two relative numbers are added, subtracted by 1, and then multiplied by the league OPS+. This removes pitchers from the league.

    In order to give the player his home park as a road park, the next step is (ROAD REL OPS+ * 3) + (RAW OPS+) / 4 (normalized to eight team league)

    Further perspective is given through rrOPS++ by weighing by playing time.


    Code:
                           raw OPS+ in ( )  weighted by 10k PA
    PLAYER          rrOPS+        rrOPS++
    Code:
    RUTH             209.5 (206)       216.3
    T.WILLIAMS       191.2 (190)       189.2
    GEHRIG           183.5 (179)       180.6
    Ba.BONDS         177.4 (182)       197.5
    COBB ('08-'28)   173.0 (170)       186.8
    J.JACKSON        173.0 (170)       141.5
    HORNSBY          172.1 (175)       168.3
    MANTLE           166.9 (172)       166.2
    J.DiMAGGIO       164.2 (155)       149.2
    PUJOLS           161.6 (162)       156.9
    McGWIRE          160.1 (163)       146.0
    M.RAMIREZ        159.3 (154)       157.9
    MUSIAL           158.6 (159)       174.5
    FOXX             156.1 (163)       154.2
    MAYS             155.9 (156)       169.8
    AARON            154.5 (155)       176.1
    D.ALLEN          154.1 (156)       138.8
    C.KELLER         152.9 (152)       124.3
    M.CABRERA        152.8 (154)       141.2
    MIZE             152.8 (158)       139.6
    OTT              152.6 (155)       159.6
    SPEAKER          150.9 (158)       161.0
    F.THOMAS         149.7 (156)       150.0
    F.ROBINSON       149.1 (154)       157.6
    HEILMANN         149.0 (148)       143.9
    PIAZZA           148.9 (142)       138.0
    E.MARTINEZ       148.7 (147)       142.2
    E.MATHEWS        148.2 (143)       148.6
    THOME            147.4 (147)       148.7
    SCHMIDT          147.3 (147)       147.5
    McCOVEY          145.8 (147)       144.3
    BAGWELL          144.8 (149)       142.2
    B.TERRY          144.7 (136)       131.7
    GREENBERG        144.4 (158)       127.0
    KILLEBREW        144.1 (143)       143.3
    STARGELL         144.0 (147)       139.7
    BERKMAN          143.7 (144)    
    A.BELLE          143.4 (144)       128.9
    B.HERMAN         143.4 (141)       127.0
    R.JACKSON        142.9 (139)       148.9
    A.RODRIGUEZ      141.8 (140)       151.0
    MCGRIFF          141.8 (134)       142.5
    KINER            141.5 (149)       125.9
    V.GUERRERO       140.9 (140)       137.0
    H.WILSON         140.3 (144)       122.3
    D.ORTIZ          140.1 (141)       140.1   
    SNIDER           138.3 (140)       131.5
    SHEFFIELD        137.9 (140)       141.4
    E.COLLINS        137.6 (136)       131.6
    CRAVATH          137.5 (154)       111.7
    F.HOWARD         136.9 (142)       127.1
    MAUER            136.9 (133)       121.2
    C.JONES          136.7 (141)       138.9
    VAUGHAN          136.6 (136)       128.2
    CASH             136.6 (139)       128.9
    K.MITCHELL       136.4 (142)       117.0
    TENACE           136.1 (136)       119.9
    B.GILES          135.4 (136)       127.7
    BERGER           135.3 (138)       119.9
    COLAVITO         135.0 (132)       126.4
    J.GONZALEZ       134.3 (132)       124.5
    J.ROBINSON       133.5 (132)       119.4
    B.JOHNSON        133.4 (139)       126.8
    L.WALKER         133.4 (141)       126.8
    GOSLIN           133.1 (128)       132.5
    KALINE           133.1 (134)       138.3 
    R.SMITH 132.9 (137) PALMEIRO 132.8 (132) 139.5 D.WINFIELD 132.7 (130) 135.9 CAREW 132.5 (131) 134.2 BRETT 132.3 (135) 137.5 W.CLARK 132.3 (137) CANSECO 132.2 (132) 126.1 EDMONDS 132.1 (132) 125.6 A.SIMMONS 131.6 (133) 130.0 P.WANER 131.4 (134) 133.8 B.NICHOLSON 131.3 (132) 120.0 SISLER 131.1 (125) 128.0 Bo.BONDS 130.9 (129) 124.9 COCHRANE 130.7 (129) 119.0 KRUK 130.7 (134) 114.1 STRAWBERRY 130.3 (138) 119.1 K.WILLIAMS 130.2 (138) 116.9 GRIFFEY JR 130.0 (136) 133.9 K.HERNANDEZ 129.9 (128) 125.5 R.HENDERSON 129.4 (127) 139.2 GWYNN 129.4 (132) 130.0 E.MURRAY 129.4 (129) 137.7 Bi.WILLIAMS 129.1 (133) 130.6 MEDWICK 129.1 (134) 123.6 GEHRINGER 128.9 (124) 129.6 MORGAN 128.9 (132) 132.7 HELTON 128.6 (133) 127.0 M.VAUGHN 128.5 (132) 118.2 WHEAT 128.3 (129) VEACH 127.2 (129) 118.8 J.GORDON 126.9 (120) 117.5 Dw.EVANS 126.7 (127) 128.2 DICKEY 126.5 (127) 118.7 CLEMENTE 126.4 (130) 126.9 SOSA 126.2 (128) 125.9 BENCH 126.1 (126) 122.6 STAUB 126.1 (124) 129.3 KLEIN 125.9 (137) 118.5 K.GIBSON 125.7 (123) 117.1 GRICH 125.6 (125) 121.0 ABREU 125.0 (128) 125.2 YASTRZEMSKI 124.6 (130) 134.4 AVERILL 124.3 (133) 117.5 BOUDREAU 124.2 (120) 116.9 KENT 123.9 (123) HARTNETT 123.5 (126) 117.1 J.RICE 123.2 (128) 121.0 LAZZERI 122.9 (121) 116.7 CEDENO 122.8 (123) ROLEN 122.2 (122) 118.9 HODGES 122.1 (120) 117.9 FLYNN 122.0 (129) 117.4 SLAUGHTER 121.0 (124) 119.0 DAWSON 120.9 (119) 122.5 BERRA 120.7 (125) 117.3 GARCIAPARRA 120.6 (124) 112.5 BELTRE HJOHNSON 120.5 (118) 111.7 RAINES 120.4 (123) 121.1 MOLITOR 120.2 (122) 124.5 BOGGS 119.7 (131) 121.1 DaEVANS 119.0 (119) 120.4 DPARKER 118.5 (121) 118.8 FISK 118.3 (117) 118.0 H.HOOPER 115.3 (114) W.DAVIS 111.7 (106) SEWELL 105.8 (108) RIZZUTO 90.5 (93) CONCEPCION 88.0 (88)

    Post #69 has the original work bb-fever was screwing up the coding lineup


    Code:
            
    ROAD RELATIVE SLUGGING EFFICIENCY                    
    
          TB ÷ (AB - H)         HOME        ROAD    LG SPECIFIC  (ROAD SLGeff ÷ LG ROAD SLGeff)
              SLGeff     SLGeff   -.SLGeff    ROAD SLGeff         ROAD REL SLGeff          LG OPS+         (HOME AS ROAD)
    Code:
    Ruth               1.048     1.068     1.029      .5058               2.034               94.00
    
    Gehrig             .9583     .9236     .9921      .5424               1.829               93.76
    
    TWilliams          .9667     1.020     .9143      .5018               1.822               93.57    
    
    JDiMaggio          .8569     .7983     .9154      .5131               1.784               93.46    
    
    JJackson          .8030      .8460       .7622     .4314         1.766         93.92  
    Cobb ('08-'28) .8287 .8228 .8331 .4725 1.763 94.00
    Hornsby .8987 .9193 .8790 .5130 1.713 93.73 Aaron .7978 .7993 .7964 .4995 1.594 93.56 BaBonds .8645 .8833 .8471 .5323 1.591 93.95 Musial .8354 .8770 .7967 .5035 1.582 93.13 Mantle .7932 .8191 .7690 .4900 1.569 93.38 WMays .7983 .8120 .7856 .5015 1.566 92.90 Foxx .9030 1.011 .8091 .5238 1.544 93.60 Piazza .7876 .7297 .8419 .5468 1.539 94.50 - C Mize .8170 .8795 .7576 .4972 1.523 93.46 Heilmann .7905 .8071 .7751 .5093 1.521 93.94 BTerry .7678 .7265 .8097 .5334 1.517 93.57 Ott .7661 .7938 .7398 .5066 1.460 93.45 Stargell .7357 .7643 .7093 .4864 1.458 93.28 McGwire .7978 .8004 .7953 .5489 1.448 98.37 EMathews .6989 .6634 .7321 .5060 1.446 92.88 Simmons .8033 .8560 .7548 .5255 1.436 93.70 Schmidt .7198 .7419 .6995 .4888 1.431 93.61 FRobinson .7607 .8248 .7039 .4928 1.428 94.19 MRamirez .8511 .8569 .8455 .5955 1.419 99.26 Greenberg .8813 1.028 .7443 .5272 1.411 93.46 McCovey .7048 .7221 .6890 .4915 1.401 93.27 VGuerrero .8097 .8392 .7795 .5566 1.400 97.12 Speaker ('08-'28) .7648 .8509 .6865 .4725 1.452 94.00 Goslin .7304 .7008 .7580 .5417 1.399 93.88 JGonzalez .7956 .8090 .7833 .5621 1.393 99.88 Snider .7661 .8167 .7168 .5151 1.391 92.88 ABelle .7996 .8302 .7710 .5582 1.381 99.91 Medwick .7459 .8175 .6812 .4935 1.380 93.41 Colavito .6656 .6595 .6710 .4874 1.376 93.28 HWilson .7859 .8365 .7363 .5358 1.374 93.58 FHoward .6862 .7052 .6679 .4865 1.372 93.25 Bagwell .7683 .8040 .7345 .5404 1.359 94.13 RJackson .6640 .6459 .6814 .5021 1.357 98.00 Kiner .7597 .8333 .6888 .5096 1.351 93.10 ARodriguez .7966 .8287 .7660 .5685 1.347 99.90 Wheat ('14-'27) .6795 .7088 .6511 .4838 1.345 94.07 Maris .6432 .6341 .6514 .4848 1.343 93.25 Dawson .6692 .6686 .6697 .5011 1.336 94.33 EMartinez .7486 .7500 .7474 .5593 1.336 99.88 Clemente .6960 .7279 .6664 .4999 1.333 92.88 McGriff .7113 .7058 .7165 .5428 1.320 97.00 Winfield .6614 .6395 .6820 .5172 1.318 97.72 Cash .6702 .7115 .6308 .4796 1.315 94.00 Delgado .7580 .7681 .7482 .5697 1.313 98.17 Gwynn .6928 .7092 .6773 .5179 1.307 93.85 Thome .7658 .8001 .7318 .5598 1.307 98.90 Bench .6495 .6672 .6322 .4844 1.305 93.47 - C CJones .7598 .8130 .7091 .5443 1.302 94.21 Sosa .7344 .7670 .7031 .5417 1.297 95.77 Lombardi .6626 .6861 .6398 .4931 1.297 93.41 - C BiWilliams .6927 .7519 .6354 .4912 1.293 93.66 Sheffield .7256 .7485 .7038 .5444 1.292 96.54 KWilliams .7791 .9070 .6571 .5086 1.291 94.00 Berra .6740 .7071 .6434 .4985 1.290 93.57 - C FThomas .7939 .8621 .7270 .5661 1.284 99.89 Edmonds .7364 .7514 .7215 .5625 1.282 96.52 LWalker .8224 .9767 .6849 .5346 1.281 94.11 Klein .7986 .9553 .6528 .5097 1.280 93.35 EMurray .6678 .6601 .6751 .5294 1.275 98.42 Brett .7010 .7431 .6614 .5196 1.272 100.0 Canseco .7009 .6962 .7052 .5543 1.272 99.94 Carew .6384 .6504 .6272 .4969 1.262 97.78 Kingman .6254 .6264 .6244 .4960 1.258 95.00 EDavis .6597 .6593 .6600 .5245 1.258 95.11 Hodges .6697 .6992 .6421 .5128 1.252 93.00 Sisler .7096 .7848 .6381 .5104 1.250 94.03 Griffey Jr .7508 .8136 .6941 .5552 1.250 97.70 Averill .7821 .8950 .6744 .5396 1.249 93.61 KHernandez .6195 .6269 .6126 .4906 1.248 94.05 Garvey .6319 .6528 .6118 .4911 1.245 93.52 DParker .6628 .7125 .6183 .4968 1.244 95.00 Banks .6882 .7566 .6226 .5056 1.231 92.89 KBoyer .6481 .6835 .6136 .5010 1.224 92.86 JRice .7152 .8022 .6349 .5201 1.220 100.0 Buhner .6614 .6466 .6762 .5565 1.215 99.93 JLopez .6888 .7117 .6673 .5504 1.212 95.33 - C Helton .7885 .9273 .6573 .5442 1.207 94.23 Tenace .5651 .5447 .5839 .4858 1.201 95.20 - C DMurphy .6382 .6938 .5864 .4925 1.190 93.72 GCarter .5948 .6107 .5799 .4891 1.185 93.73 - C Fisk .6248 .6462 .6042 .5121 1.179 99.12 - C Ripken Jr .6176 .5934 .6406 .5478 1.169 99.95 Yastrzemski .6463 .7249 .5734 .4906 1.168 96.34 Larkin .6301 .6481 .6121 .5283 1.158 93.94 Campanella .6902 .7992 .5973 .5174 1.154 93.10 - C Caminiti .6135 .6198 .6073 .5269 1.152 94.13 Rose .5871 .6181 .5581 .4859 1.148 93.33 Greenwell .6642 .7121 .6189 .5417 1.142 100.0 Sandberg .6312 .7017 .5635 .5016 1.123 93.75 JCarter .6268 .6472 .6067 .5406 1.122 99.37 Santo .6417 .7422 .5461 .4903 1.113 93.33 IRodriguez .6596 .6961 .6250 .5628 1.110 99.23 - C Boggs .6586 .7593 .5654 .5465 1.034 99.94
    Attached Files
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 08-31-2019, 11:47 AM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  • #2
    I realized that I can compare the players' outs to the league rate of outs to figure out how many extra plate appearances a player like Ruth "earned for himself". Rbat already has a cost value of making outs. What I want to account for is that the low out producer is getting some of his extra plate appearances because he is saving outs.

    So let's work through the math for Babe Ruth 1921, which I chose simply because it is the highest Rbat total in history at 116.

    Rbat: 116 (above average)
    PAs: 693
    Batting outs: 336 (I will not look at Sacs or GIDPs at this point as they may be situational and also were not always official or kept stats. So I just take AB-H)

    League runs: 6296
    League PAs: 48698
    League outs: 30280

    The next part I am going to have to figure out how to put in into an algebraic equation later, but using plugging and checking I got that Ruth's 693 PAs were 103% higher because he made few outs. The average player would have gotten just 675.

    (Basically and to within about 1 PA, The average player got 1.61 PAs per out. Multiplying by 336 outs that Ruth made, they would have gotten 540 PAs in the same number of outs that he got 693, however, only 1/9 of his 153 extra PAs would have gone to himself, so an average player in Ruth's spot would have only gotten 674-675 PAs while he got 693).

    In 675 PAs the average player produced 87.3 Rbat.

    Ruth had 116.

    (116+87.3)/87.3= 2.33, or 233%, strikingly similar to his OPS+ of 238

    Comment


    • #3
      As for earned runs, Rbat actually estimates a players runs created whether they are earned or unearned so I believe it is more accurate.

      As for the walk thing, its minor. Origially I was looking at how many runs Ruth produced above average (116) and what the average player did in the same number of plate appearances (693 which would be 89 runs) but I realized that Ruth's low outs meant that he GOT 693 PAS, but an average hitter would only have gotten about 675, so I'm actually giving Ruth more credit for making fewer outs. Ruth produced over 693 PAs but an average guy should only count his rate of production through 675 because Ruth effectively created 18 more plate appearances for himself.

      Comment


      • #4
        Gentlemen… please…

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_average

        http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Total_Average
        Your Second Base Coach
        Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

        Comment


        • #5
          Total average has the precise problem of dividing by player outs. Players don't get outs, and they don't really get plate appearances either. They get plate appearances plus or minus extra PAs created or lost by their rate of making outs.

          If Rbat (for war) is really a good weighted measure of run production above average, then Rbat divided by the league average run production for the same number of plate appearances plus or minus those created or lost for oneself would basically be an OPS+ like stat but that is actually meaningful and accurate throughout the entire range of player productivity. But because of some of the issues with coming up with the career-long run environment and league OB% for a player, maybe it would be better to just convert Rbat into batting wins above average. This would account for run environement and general park effects and weigh everything right.

          Babe Ruth has 1334 Rbat (above average)
          We can see that war shows that 1717 RAR converts to 163.2 WAR which means that 10.52 runs equals one win.
          So 1334/10.52= 126.8 career games won above average by hitting for Ruth.

          That is a darn good estimate of his career greatness as a hitter, and pretty simple to come up with. While there are a few flaws with the next step, on the order of tenths of wins, that also can be shown as a rate, 8.21 batting wins per 162 games.
          Ruth: +126.8/8.21
          Bonds: +111.9/6.07
          Williams: +106.0/7.49
          Cobb: +105.4/5.63
          Gehrig: +89.7/6.72
          Hornsby: +86.3/6.19
          Pujols: +65.3/5.40


          Also assuming 4.5 batting wins per full time player per 162 (which may be a little high because baserunning is not net zero) we would also come up with OPS+ like scores of the following:

          Ruth: 282
          Williams: 266
          Bonds: 235
          Cobb: 225
          Gehrig: 249
          Hornsby: 238
          Pujols: 220

          Which tend to support that OPS+ fails to stay proportional at very high levels, and so may underrate the best hitters. Remember though that this includes pitchers in the league totals. Still all of these guys would be over 200 relative rate of production even with pitchers taken out of the equation.

          Comment


          • #6
            I'm not certain that this fits the ends intended; but, for me, if we are going to bring an evaluation of outs clearly into the picture of base-runs net production, we should give special attention to what I call negative outs ... those outs, which, of their very nature, are particularly non-productive.

            I have looked at the top 30 or so run producers and determined the larger scope of total negative outs as relative percentage of all outs per player. I have also determined specific negative values for each K and DP, subtracting thier negative values from player RC as presented in B-R, Advanced Batting.

            If this data might be useful, I'll post it. Otherwise, I'll continue to listen.

            Comment


            • #7
              My "negative outs" approach regarding K and G[H]IDP numbers for each batter, relative to all his PA, AB and total outs, will not be so refined as to pitcher-batter handedness, fly ball/ground ball propensities or type of batted ball that was converted into a double play or triple play.

              That, on its face, may at first seem an open invitations to futility; but, as I see it, the bottom line will depend on a correlation among all bases collected on the + side of the ledger and all escalated out negative impacts on the run scoring machinery regardless of the luck or breaks involved in play execution, or the positive attributes of a K that makes the pitcher work harder.

              I am approaching this for the period 1901 - present. If I find anything worth while, I'll post it eventually. If not, I'll post that ... as a public confession of sorts ... and as a public safety announcement so others can avoid the quicksand pit I eagerly ran into.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by brett
                Yes, that is the way to do it.
                K thanks

                When finding league avg, should I be concerned with players having partial seasons, or just find the avg from their first year, to last year, cut and dry?

                Any way to tie RC into this, or is that over-doing things?
                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                Comment


                • #9
                  ----------------------------------------------------
                  Code:
                                               (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                                  
                                  RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
                  Code:
                  Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
                  TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
                  Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
                  Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
                  BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
                  Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
                  Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
                  McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
                  MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
                  JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
                  Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
                  MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
                  LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
                  Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
                  Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
                  ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
                  WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
                  Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
                  BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
                  Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55
                  Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40
                  Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33
                  FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50   
                  Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32      
                  Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50
                  Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
                  EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36
                  SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53
                  RHenderson       .419         .539         .522            1.03
                  Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-29-2014, 06:59 PM.
                  "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                  ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Brett,

                    I know you're spread thin between the WAR talk, but a couple things.

                    Ok, we have slugging efficiency. We have the league avg slugging efficiency throughout their careers, which gives us a relative number. We have the avg park factor of their home parks throughout their career.

                    Park factor is nice in getting an overall picture of what others did, but next I'd like to hone in on each players performance home/road; what THEY actually did but not sure how. You said on avg, players slug 2% better at home and they produce 2% more total bases/out at home. Should we take their road slugging number and apply a 4% boost, to get an "expected" home number, and then look at the difference between their actual home and the "expected"?

                    Aside from that, a couple other questions.

                    1. Would applying an across the board boost for righties be legit? Considering righties face a platoon disadvantage in probably 60-70% of their PA, I think so but what do you think. If so, how and when should it be applied?

                    2. I know you said you liked battingWAA (Rbat / (RAR/WAR)). Would that be something worth including, or is this best kept as a slugging based stat?
                    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

                      This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

                      In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

                      I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



                      Code:
                      Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
                      362	        163	                59006
                      339	        201	                68139
                      334	        145	                48430
                      259	        242	                62678
                      305	        180	                54900
                      289	        221	                63869
                      346	        186	                64356
                      284	        192	                54528
                      282	        155	                43710
                      340	        189	                64260
                      173	        213	                36849
                      328	        196	                64288
                      217	        125	                27125
                      
                                      3858	                 712138
                      712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

                      League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

                      173.51 sOPS+

                      His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

                      So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
                      Last edited by brett; 04-30-2014, 11:07 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Inbox full Brett.....

                        Ok, I will do that. I only need to do the AL up until like '73 or so, right?

                        Anyway, I'm doing Williams right now.

                        Have a question.

                        He's got a season with 5 PA and a 231 away sOPS. Will that throw off the results? Do we need a min PA? Or because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat, just roll with it? I'd say a minimum ONLY because, with such few PA, a player has less chance to regress toward the mean. What say you?
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Brett can you check my work on this?

                          This just doesn't seem right, for a guy with

                          Home - .361/.496/.652 - 106 tOPS+
                          Away - .328/.467/.615 --- 94 tOPS+

                          Ballgame-sOPS+.jpg

                          Is this stat basically just saying, hey....I know he benefitted from his home park, but not as much as others throughout the league did? If that's the case, I need to question if I'm cut-out for this stat stuff. Context and perspective is important, but if we're just gonna completely throw out what THAT PLAYER ACTUALLY DID, and go 100% by league avgs....well Sammy Shortstop or Carl Catcher could be impacting the numbers. I'll hold off over-reacting until I hear about the min PA thing, and if the work is even right :silent:
                          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-30-2014, 06:25 PM.
                          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by brett View Post
                            I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

                            This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

                            In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

                            I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



                            Code:
                            Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
                            362	        163	                59006
                            339	        201	                68139
                            334	        145	                48430
                            259	        242	                62678
                            305	        180	                54900
                            289	        221	                63869
                            346	        186	                64356
                            284	        192	                54528
                            282	        155	                43710
                            340	        189	                64260
                            173	        213	                36849
                            328	        196	                64288
                            217	        125	                27125
                            
                                            3858	                 712138
                            712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

                            League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

                            173.51 sOPS+

                            His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

                            So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
                            Other than issues quantifying catchers, I think one-size-fits all park factors are WARs biggest issues. How hard would it be to at least make park effects batting-side specific? It seems more time-consuming than difficult. Maybe there is an aspect i am not considering.
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                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                              Other than issues quantifying catchers, I think one-size-fits all park factors are WARs biggest issues. How hard would it be to at least make park effects batting-side specific? It seems more time-consuming than difficult. Maybe there is an aspect i am not considering.
                              I'm willing to put in the work, just need to know what direction to go.

                              I like the direction we were going with SAeff (post#26) but seems like it needs one more step.
                              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                              Comment

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