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  • Ok, will do, soon as I have a sec. GF has a friend over and I gotta be social :guitar:

    Sending up the bat signal to Brett right now....need to know what type of platoon considerations (mathematically that is) we can give to righties. Is there an "AVERAGE" throughout the years? I thought it was 70/30 but with recent guys it might be more 60/40 because of specialized relief.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

    Comment


    • This is really, really good stuff Sultan.
      "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

      Comment


      • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
        This is really, really good stuff Sultan.
        Thanks m8.

        My cool graphic design, or the numbers? :atthepc

        Think I'm gonna do Musial vs Thome next.
        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-21-2014, 09:53 PM.
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • Musial vs Thome- best five

          Sorry Sir Stanley. Hast thou knew your triumphs. Art thou shall have known thy better.

          LOL is their a shakespearian translator online? Methinks I was making no sense.
          Attached Files
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-21-2014, 09:54 PM.
          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            Musial vs Thome- best five

            Sorry Sir Stanley. Hast thou knew your triumphs. Art thou shall have known thy better.

            LOL is their a shakespearian translator online? Methinks I was making no sense.
            In Modern English, Musial was really, really, really good. To see that he crushed Thome like that stopped my world ...

            Comment


            • I'm thinking that a Mantle-Mays-Aaron comparison would be very interesting.

              Comment


              • So i was thinking that just like you created an expected slugging percentage and relative slugging percentage using road numbers, the same could be done for on-base percentage. If that was done, we could get expected OPS+, and if we have that we can actually adjust a player's WAR by estimating their Rbat based on their expected OPS+.

                If a player had a 150 OPS+ but a 140 expected OPS+, then his Rbat expected would be about 40/50 of what he actually has. I think though that you already calculated road relative OPS+ in earlier work which would accomplish the same thing.

                Why are you using league PO is slugging efficiency? PO includes outs on the bases. I would use league at bats minus league hits. Actually I never asked, how do YOU calculate a players outs? If you including CS? I would find the league outs the exact same way you found the player's outs.

                The most interesting thing for me is to see expected slugging percentage. And also road relative OPS+. We can see what that does to Boggs. He probably would have lost about 17-18 WAR if we use his road numbers to predict his true hitting ability. That alone would drop him from 29th to about 52nd on the all time war for position players. Not to mention that he scores 100 to 150 runs worse on defense in some other metrics.

                Comment


                • You also might want to pick a players top 5 now by expected SA, or road relative OPS+.

                  Comment


                  • So for SAeff it should be TB divided by AB - H for the player and the league?

                    Same could be done for OBP true. Still multiply by 1.02 I take it.

                    Any thoughts on a simple and fair platoon credit method for righties?

                    Also, given that it is the only defensive position that directly impacts offensive production....shouldnt catchers receive a similar but smaller boost too?
                    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-23-2014, 11:19 AM.
                    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      So for SAeff it should be TB divided by AB - H for the player and the league?

                      Same could be done for OBP true. Still multiply by 1.02 I take it.

                      Any thoughts on a simple and fair platoon credit method for righties?

                      Also, given that it is the only defensive position that directly impacts offensive production....shouldnt catchers receive a similar but smaller boost too?
                      Yea, on base percentage is very very close to 1.02 as well.

                      The problem with lefties and righties is that righties hit righties much better than lefties hit lefties, as a group. There have been several avenues like looking at how lefties and righties hit overall and just comparing lefties to lefties and righties to righties, but each method creates complications, like the fact that righties would get compared to middle infielders and catchers more, and lefties would be compared to first basemen, DHs and outfielders.

                      Comment


                      • This is good. By doing SAeff the easy and obvious way, which somehow escaped me, we can get home/road SAeff. Just looked at Piazza and his split is .730/.842. Seems huge but need to do some others to get perspective. Btw, any idea what the expected home production would be for SAeff?

                        Piazza is looking better and better. Then he has platoon and catcher considerations. He will be moving up my hitters list big time. In fact, at this point its all blown up after you know who.
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          This is good. By doing SAeff the easy and obvious way, which somehow escaped me, we can get home/road SAeff. Just looked at Piazza and his split is .730/.842. Seems huge but need to do some others to get perspective. Btw, any idea what the expected home production would be for SAeff?

                          Piazza is looking better and better. Then he has platoon and catcher considerations. He will be moving up my hitters list big time. In fact, at this point its all blown up after you know who.
                          I think that if you have slugging efficiency on the road and want to predict the OVERALL, you would multiply by about 1.04 and just for home 1.08.

                          Comment


                          • Nice thanks.

                            Okay we saw Piazza's .842 career road SAeff.

                            Here is Foxx's split.

                            1.011
                            .809
                            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                            Comment


                            • You'll have to use relative SAeff to set the run environments though.

                              The best comparison of SAeff would be to take a) road slugging efficiency b) multiply by 1.04 c) divide by the league slugging efficiency

                              Comment


                              • I know. At work on my smarty phone. I need to re-do the leagues SAeff data base so couldnt do that step.

                                By the way...

                                Ruth

                                Home - 1.068
                                Road -- 1.029
                                Expected - 1.070

                                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-23-2014, 02:35 PM.
                                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                                Comment

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