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  • Originally posted by brett View Post
    So if you take relative slugging plus relative OB% minus 1 you get OPS+
    So add them both and subtract 1? I need to keep working on the career chart, but the top fives are more fun!

    Why the minus 1?

    That all rhymed.

    Comment


    • Posted this in the first post. Will be adding to it from there.

      Left some space in case a worthy Rbat stat comes up.

      Trying to decide if it'd be worth having a DIFF BETWEEN EXPECTED AND ACTUAL column for SLGeff.

      Also, Brett, in the league SA database (and when calculating SLGeff), do I need to multiply the NL from '73 on, by 1.06 to take the DH out?

      Code:
                             HOME     AWAY    (AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)             HOME       AWAY      .(AWAY * 1.02)                   .(EXP OBP / LG OBP) 
                     SA       SA       SA      EXP OVR SA   LG SA   ADJ REL SA      OBP      OBP        OBP       EXP OVR OBP       LG OBP         ADJ REL OBP
      Code:
      Ruth	      .690     .698	.682	  .696      .381     1.83
      TWilliams     .634     .652	.615	  .627      .382     1.64
      Gehrig 	      .632     .620	.644	  .657      .403     1.63     
      JDiMaggio     .579     .546	.610	  .622      .391     1.59
      BaBonds	      .607     .618     .597	  .609      .404     1.51
      Hornsby	      .577     .589	.565	  .576      .384     1.50
      Aaron	      .555     .557	.552	  .563      .381     1.48
      Mantle	      .557     .569	.545	  .556      .377     1.47
      WMays	      .557     .567	.549	  .560      .383     1.46
      McGwire	      .588     .591	.586	  .598      .412     1.45
      Foxx          .609     .663	.561	  .572      .397     1.44
      Mize	      .562     .598	.527	  .538      .377     1.43
      Musial	      .559     .582	.537	  .548      .385     1.42
      Cobb	      .512     .503	.516	  .526      .371     1.42
      Piazza	      .545     .515	.572	  .583      .413     1.41
      Schmidt	      .527     .540	.515	  .525      .374     1.40
      EMathews      .509     .488	.529	  .540      .387     1.40
      MRamirez      .585     .591	.580	  .592      .425     1.39
      Heilmann      .520     .527	.515	  .525      .381     1.38
      FRobinson     .537     .573	.504	  .514      .377     1.36
      Ott	      .533     .558	.510	  .520      .382     1.36
      Greenberg     .605     .681	.529	  .540      .398     1.36
      ABelle	      .564     .580	.549	  .560      .417     1.34
      RJackson      .490     .481	.499	  .509      .383     1.33
      HWilson	      .545     .572	.517	  .527      .398     1.32
      Kiner         .548     .593	.503	  .513      .388     1.32
      Goslin        .500     .484	.514	  .524      .403     1.30
      Bagwell       .540     .560	.521	  .531      .409     1.30
      Sosa          .534     .555	.513	  .523      .407     1.29
      Medwick       .505     .541	.470	  .479      .373     1.28
      LWalker       .565     .637	.495	  .505      .405     1.25
      Klein         .543     .618	.466	  .475      .383     1.24
      Griffey Jr    .538     .573	.505	  .515      .417     1.24
      FThomas       .555     .599	.511	  .521      .423     1.23
      DMurphy       .469     .499	.440	  .449      .376     1.19
      Helton        .539     .607	.469	  .478      .413     1.16
      Ripken        .447     .435	.459	  .468      .411     1.14
      Sandberg      .452     .491	.412	  .420      .382     1.10
      Boggs	      .443     .491	.395	  .403      .410     .983
      Kingman	      .478     .478	.478	  .488
      Stargell      .529     .543	.515	  .525
      DParker       .471     .497	.446	  .455
      VGuerrero     .553     .568	.536	  .547
      Dawson        .482     .481	.483	  .493
      ARodriguez    .558     .575     .542      .553
      JGonzalez     .561     .565	.557	  .568
      Canseco       .515     .511	.518	  .528
      IRodriguez    .464     .482	.447	  .456
      Caminiti      .447     .449	.444	  .453

      Code:
                                   
                    .TB / (AB - H)    ..HOME     ...AWAY      (AWAY * 1.04)                     (EXP SLGeff / LG SLGeff) 
                      SLGeff      SLGeff     ..SLGeff     EXP OVR SLGeff     LEAGUE SLGeff       ADJ REL SLGeff
      Code:
      Ruth            1.05       1.07      1.03        1.07
      TWilliams       .967       1.02      .914        .951
      Gehrig          .958       .924      .992        1.03
      JDiMaggio       .857       .798      .915        .952
      BaBonds
      Hornsby
      Aaron
      Mantle
      WMays           .798       .812      .786        .817
      McGwire
      Foxx            .903       1.01      .809        .841
      Mize
      Musial
      Cobb            .808       .782      .822        .855
      Piazza          .788       .730      .842        .876
      Schmidt
      EMathews
      MRamirez
      Heilmann
      FRobinson
      Ott             .766       .794      .727        .756
      Greenberg
      ABelle
      RJackson
      HWilson
      Kiner
      Goslin
      Bagwell
      Sosa
      Medwick
      LWalker
      Klein
      Griffey Jr
      FThomas
      DMurphy
      Helton
      Ripken
      Sandberg
      Boggs
      Kingman
      Stargell
      DParker
      VGuerrero
      Dawson
      ARodriguez
      JGonzalez
      Canseco
      IRodriguez
      Caminiti
      ASimmons
      McCovey
      Snider
      Banks
      Berra
      Bench
      Emurray
      Larkiin
      Rose
      EDavis
      Hodges
      Garvey
      Buhner
      EMartinez
      Sisler
      BTerry
      Dunn
      Pujols
      MCabrera
      Thome
      Ortiz
      Sheffield
      McGriff
      Wheat
      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-25-2014, 05:10 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
        He did hit 600+ HR's. I though the 600 would get him closer than that to Stan The Man.
        C'mon blue, The Man had 3000 more hits than Thome had home runs. It isn't like he was a Pete Rose singles hitter, either. Stan slugged 725 doubles, 177 triples, and 475 home runs. Musial also made contact when he was at the plate, regularly. He had more doubles than strikeouts (696) in his career. Thome struck out almost 2,000 more times than Musial. That is just ridiculous.
        "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

        Comment


        • Go easy Herr. I was kinda surprised too, even knowing Stans abilities. It was a whooping.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            So add them both and subtract 1? I need to keep working on the career chart, but the top fives are more fun!

            Why the minus 1?

            That all rhymed.
            OPS+ is a made up stat. If a player is 33% above average is slugging and 17% better in on base, their OPS+ is defined as 1 + .33 + .17 then multiply the whole thing by 100.

            The thing is that it is close to directly proportional with a players batting value. Not perfect, but if we know that a player had a 155 OPS+, but his road numbers suggest he should have been 170, then it means he could have been 70% above average rather than 55%, or at least 70/55 as good. (again OPS+ is not perfect, but the ratio of road predicted compared to overall for a single given player is going to be very close to the ratio of expected offense by that player based on his road numbers).

            What I would really like to see, as an eventual outcome, is a single number for each player that is based on road numbers, and relative to his league that tells us what his "road predicted" batting production really was. So we can say, based on road relative numbers, Boggs is really only 116% of average instead of 130%, while Mathews is really 155% instead of 143%.

            If we get that road relative OPS+ we can just directly compare it to the players total OPS+ to see how much he might have risen or fallen in a neutral park (not an offense neutral park, but one that didn't either hurt that player or help him in particular.

            We could either use the road expected OPS+, or we could use it with our total batting value stat (let me look it up it was the Rbat one) to adjust out his particular home benefit or loss.

            Comment


            • Oh no! I forgot something. League slugging, well, you are taking the league totals right? I forgot that pitchers are usually taken out when we do the relative numbers. This may explain a little of why newer players look a little worse in the AL. You don't actually HAVE to take pitchers out, I mean what we are looking at is real, and well WARs Rbat is ultimately based on league offense, not just position players' offense.

              But to take it out, the best way to get real close is to take the league OPS+ for the player, (the .94 something that you got in earlier work), but instead of using that, you use 1 + OPS+ all divided by 2. So if a player's league was .938 you would take (1+.9380/2) which would be 0.969. If you divide the actual league slugging by that number you would get it without pitchers to within a hair. Same for OB%. It wouldn't affect guys in leagues where pitchers didn't hit, but it would drop guys in leagues where they did hit by about 3%. I am sorry, I lost track that that step was happening.

              The other option though, what I would probably do is leave it "as is". It is a real ratio of the players slugging to his league, but if we get to the point where we create an OPS+ out of it, we would need to just multiply the player's predicted OPS+ by the league OPS+ to take out pitchers from there.
              Last edited by brett; 05-25-2014, 06:24 PM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                Oh no! I forgot something. League slugging, well, you are taking the league totals right? I forgot that pitchers are usually taken out when we do the relative numbers. This may explain a little of why newer players look a little worse in the AL. You don't actually HAVE to take pitchers out, I mean what we are looking at is real, and well WARs Rbat is ultimately based on league offense, not just position players' offense.

                But to take it out, the best way to get real close is to take the league OPS+ for the player, (the .94 something that you got in earlier work), but instead of using that, you use 1 + OPS+ all divided by 2. So if a player's league was .938 you would take (1+.9380/2) which would be 0.969. If you divide the actual league slugging by that number you would get it without pitchers to within a hair. Same for OB%. It wouldn't affect guys in leagues where pitchers didn't hit, but it would drop guys in leagues where they did hit by about 3%. I am sorry, I lost track that that step was happening.

                The other option though, what I would probably do is leave it "as is". It is a real ratio of the players slugging to his league, but if we get to the point where we create an OPS+ out of it, we would need to just multiply the player's predicted OPS+ by the league OPS+ to take out pitchers from there.
                I think "As is" makes sense, but it's Sultan's stat of course. It's what % a player is above league avg. OPS, correct?

                DiMaggio would be 59% (SLG) + 19% (OBP) = 78% Adjusted OPS advantage over league

                So we ignore park effects with this stat, and use road relative OPS+ to adjust for park effects?

                Comment


                • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                  I think "As is" makes sense, but it's Sultan's stat of course. It's what % a player is above league avg. OPS, correct?

                  DiMaggio would be 59% (SLG) + 19% (OBP) = 78% Adjusted OPS advantage over league

                  So we ignore park effects with this stat, and use road relative OPS+ to adjust for park effects?
                  Yes, but the final OPS+ of 178 should be multiplied by the league average OPS+ which I think was about .94. So he's more like 167. It still moves him into the elite high 160s range.

                  I would not adjust relative slugging or relative on base percentage, in part because the accuracy in the adjustment is not perfect. But Dimaggio's real OPS+ was 155 and that had pitchers factored out, so to get a fair comparison they should be taken out of the OPS+.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by brett View Post
                    Yes, but the final OPS+ of 178 should be multiplied by the league average OPS+ which I think was about .94. So he's more like 167. It still moves him into the elite high 160s range.

                    I would not adjust relative slugging or relative on base percentage, in part because the accuracy in the adjustment is not perfect. But Dimaggio's real OPS+ was 155 and that had pitchers factored out, so to get a fair comparison they should be taken out of the OPS+.
                    Keeping in mind Joe D's actual road OPS+ is 165, I'd say that's a very close approximation.
                    Last edited by layson27; 05-25-2014, 07:41 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                      Keeping in mind Joe D's actual road OPS+ is 165, I'd say that's a very close approximation.
                      See it works! We just calculated OPS+ two different ways and got the same answer.

                      We found a player's (road) slugging and on base relative to the actual league numbers and then adjusted pitchers out and
                      We took road s-OPS+ (with pitchers) season by season, weighted by plate appearances and then factored pitchers out.

                      And I think the league OPS+ was more like .935 which would give us 166.4

                      There is a tiny percent we didn't account for and that is that he should have hit in YS on the road a fraction of the time, and there's your other point and a fraction.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by brett View Post
                        See it works! We just calculated OPS+ two different ways and got the same answer.

                        We found a player's (road) slugging and on base relative to the actual league numbers and then adjusted pitchers out and
                        We took road s-OPS+ (with pitchers) season by season, weighted by plate appearances and then factored pitchers out.

                        And I think the league OPS+ was more like .935 which would give us 166.4

                        There is a tiny percent we didn't account for and that is that he should have hit in YS on the road a fraction of the time, and there's your other point and a fraction.
                        We'll have to wait and see if Mantle's "expected OPS+" matches his 166 road OPS+.
                        And as I recall Williams' & Gehrig's road OPS+ were almost identical as well.

                        Comment


                        • I'm confused.

                          Multiple directions we're going in now, but I wanna make sure, this one direction will lead to something.

                          Bret...if I complete the right side of the chart I just posted, the one having to do with OBP, we will have ADJUSTED RELATIVE, or I guess just relative, SA and OBP. What can you do with those two final numbers?

                          Also...for SLGeff.....the final number doesn't look clean or easily understood. Is there a way to put it into BA form or something?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                            I'm confused.

                            Multiple directions we're going in now, but I wanna make sure, this one direction will lead to something.

                            Bret...if I complete the right side of the chart I just posted, the one having to do with OBP, we will have ADJUSTED RELATIVE, or I guess just relative, SA and OBP. What can you do with those two final numbers?

                            Also...for SLGeff.....the final number doesn't look clean or easily understood. Is there a way to put it into BA form or something?
                            For the first one, you take relative slugging plus relative OB minus 1. Then multiply the answer by your league OPS+ for the player's career. (and then multiply by 100 to make it an OPS+ type score)

                            It would be "road predicted OPS+" or just predicted OPS+

                            So a 1.63 relative slugging 1.16 relative OB%, you get 2.78. Subtract 1 to get 1.78. Multiply by the league OPS+ say .941 to get 1.67498. Then multiply 100 to get 167 (here you should round off to three digits.

                            For SLGeff let me get back to you in 5 minutes.

                            Comment


                            • For slugging efficiency, on the one hand, I think people who have looked at stats of players know that if you can put up more than 1 total base per out, you are having a great season. For example in '98 McGwire had 383 total bases and 357 outs.

                              In the past I have recommened not using rates per 27 outs because a player doesn't get 27 outs. If we though assume that a team has 459 outs per spot in the lineup in a 162 game season (162 x 25.5/9) we could multiply slugging efficiency by 459. Then it would look like a total base total for a full season. Total bases per 459 outs. 400 is awesome. Or if you double it it would be similar to an OPS+ score and probably mean about the same thing.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                                For slugging efficiency, on the one hand, I think people who have looked at stats of players know that if you can put up more than 1 total base per out, you are having a great season. For example in '98 McGwire had 383 total bases and 357 outs.

                                In the past I have recommened not using rates per 27 outs because a player doesn't get 27 outs. If we though assume that a team has 459 outs per spot in the lineup in a 162 game season (162 x 25.5/9) we could multiply slugging efficiency by 459. Then it would look like a total base total for a full season. Total bases per 459 outs. 400 is awesome. Or if you double it it would be similar to an OPS+ score and probably mean about the same thing.
                                Awesome Brett.

                                I like how you're thinking outside the box.

                                The first way makes sense, except the subtracting 1 and all that, but it's probably a stat thing over my head.

                                For the SLGeff....I would really like to keep it to what the player and league did. Not sure about extrapolating that out to a whole season worth of outs for the one player. I do like the idea of getting a TB type figure but wouldn't we divide that by their actual AB to get something else? Or are we then back and square one.

                                Man, how does this stuff not give you a headache.

                                I'm through 1940 for AL and NL on the new SLGeff chart, since I have to re-do it. Only Ruth done so far...his Adjusted relative is 2.04. Very close to his actual OPS+

                                Comment

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