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  • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Go easy Herr. I was kinda surprised too, even knowing Stans abilities. It was a whooping.
    You are always defending these new guys against my old favorites.

    HAHAHAHA!!! See how easy that happens?
    "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

    Comment


    • Originally posted by brett View Post
      For the first one, you take relative slugging plus relative OB minus 1. Then multiply the answer by your league OPS+ for the player's career. (and then multiply by 100 to make it an OPS+ type score)

      It would be "road predicted OPS+" or just predicted OPS+

      So a 1.63 relative slugging 1.16 relative OB%, you get 2.78. Subtract 1 to get 1.78. Multiply by the league OPS+ say .941 to get 1.67498. Then multiply 100 to get 167 (here you should round off to three digits.
      So for Ruth, we have 3.22 minus one, so 2.22 times .94 x 100 = 208.68

      Would that be 209 or 208?

      Also, it seems that looking at a players league avg for their careers in raw OPS, would tell us much more about their hitting environment than OPS+. We would get more fluctuation because as you know, it's pretty much gonna be 94 or 95 for every player (except 1973-current AL).

      If there's something we can do with that, can we look at the "more stats" OPS number, or is another data base required?

      Comment


      • JoeDbest10.jpg



        SimmonSheffieldBest5.jpg
        ----------------------------------------------
        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-26-2014, 03:52 PM.

        Comment


        • For those curious about Mr. Boggs............

          BoggsBest10.jpg

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            So for Ruth, we have 3.22 minus one, so 2.22 times .94 x 100 = 208.68

            Would that be 209 or 208?

            Also, it seems that looking at a players league avg for their careers in raw OPS, would tell us much more about their hitting environment than OPS+. We would get more fluctuation because as you know, it's pretty much gonna be 94 or 95 for every player (except 1973-current AL).

            If there's something we can do with that, can we look at the "more stats" OPS number, or is another data base required?
            You would need to get raw yearly OPS averages. The "more stats" OPS numbers are park adjusted, just like the slugging & OBP numbers.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
              So for Ruth, we have 3.22 minus one, so 2.22 times .94 x 100 = 208.68

              Would that be 209 or 208?

              Also, it seems that looking at a players league avg for their careers in raw OPS, would tell us much more about their hitting environment than OPS+. We would get more fluctuation because as you know, it's pretty much gonna be 94 or 95 for every player (except 1973-current AL).

              If there's something we can do with that, can we look at the "more stats" OPS number, or is another data base required?
              209.

              No the only reason to use the 94 or 95 is to take pitchers out of the league. OPS+ for a player is compared to non-pitchers, but the league OPS+ includes pitchers which is why it is a little less than 100. We just want to multiply by the .93 or .94 to remove the pitcher's defecit from the league an bring it back to 100. OPS+ for non pitchers is already adjusted to the run environment to make it 100 in all seasons.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                For those curious about Mr. Boggs............

                [ATTACH]139056[/ATTACH]
                If we ever get the complete data I believe that we will find that Boggs relative OB% did not drop much on the road, but he lose 16-17 points off his OPS+ when adjusted. That is over half his Rbat, maybe 25 WAR. It drops him from 90ish to 65ish.

                Also he is rated as much as 150 defensive runs worse in PCA. If that is right he'd be a 50 war player. I think he deserves some credit for learning to take advantage of his park, but I think he's around a top 60 player rather than a top 30 player.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Herr28 View Post
                  You are always defending these new guys against my old favorites.

                  HAHAHAHA!!! See how easy that happens?
                  Who, muah?

                  I think most would say I'm the opposite if anything. Plus, I'm an Enos guy, just like you :gt

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by brett View Post
                    209.

                    No the only reason to use the 94 or 95 is to take pitchers out of the league. OPS+ for a player is compared to non-pitchers, but the league OPS+ includes pitchers which is why it is a little less than 100. We just want to multiply by the .93 or .94 to remove the pitcher's defecit from the league an bring it back to 100. OPS+ for non pitchers is already adjusted to the run environment to make it 100 in all seasons.
                    Oh I gotcha. So all the adjustments have already been done, and that .94 is the final touch, removing pitchers. So for players in the AL with DH, should we just use the NL number for them?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      Who, muah?

                      I think most would say I'm the opposite if anything. Plus, I'm an Enos guy, just like you :gt
                      They just talked about Country during the 5th inning of the Yankees v Cardinals game in The Lou. Jeter, at 39, was mentioned as one of the oldest Yankees to have a 4-hit game, and good ol' Country Slaughter was one of the other 2 names they mentioned.
                      "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by brett View Post
                        If we ever get the complete data I believe that we will find that Boggs relative OB% did not drop much on the road, but he lose 16-17 points off his OPS+ when adjusted. That is over half his Rbat, maybe 25 WAR. It drops him from 90ish to 65ish.

                        Also he is rated as much as 150 defensive runs worse in PCA. If that is right he'd be a 50 war player. I think he deserves some credit for learning to take advantage of his park, but I think he's around a top 60 player rather than a top 30 player.
                        Here's his best five OBP seasons. Ten points is pretty significant drop wouldn't you say. Even more than the seven point SA drop in best five. His BA would probably be the biggest drop of the three slashes.

                        BoggsBest5OBP.jpg
                        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-26-2014, 04:51 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Herr28 View Post
                          They just talked about Country during the 5th inning of the Yankees v Cardinals game in The Lou. Jeter, at 39, was mentioned as one of the oldest Yankees to have a 4-hit game, and good ol' Country Slaughter was one of the other 2 names they mentioned.
                          Who was the third guy?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                            Oh I gotcha. So all the adjustments have already been done, and that .94 is the final touch, removing pitchers. So for players in the AL with DH, should we just use the NL number for them?
                            So with the DH they don't include interleague when they calculate OPS+ for the league. So the pitchers are already removed so the OPS+ is 100 and we don't make an adjustment. To multiply them by the NL number would wrongly hurt AL hitters because the league rates already don't have pitchers in them. Now we could argue that AL hitters should get a small boost because DHs contribute to the league rates. DHs hit about 10% better than the non-DH league as a whole, so dividing by 9 spots in the lineup, theoretically a player from a DH league might deserve to get his final OPS+ multiplied by 1.01, but that is based on average DH production over a long period of time.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                              Who was the third guy?
                              I think Ruth had a 4 hit game at age 40 with the Braves. Didn't he hit 3 home runs and have 4 hits in one of his last games?

                              Comment


                              • Pre DH league yearly OPS+ averages seem to vary from 93 to 95. brett, you were right- DiMaggio's league OPS+ was .935 (93.5 divided by 100) making his expected OPS+ 166. I wonder- should all league OPS+ averages be taken to three digits for this exercise? It would seem to make a small, but real difference.
                                Last edited by layson27; 05-26-2014, 06:34 PM.

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