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  • Ok I can do that. Did you ever do Vladdy?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
      Ok I can do that. Did you ever do Vladdy?
      I just have his relative slugging, 1.30.
      What's your source for league OBP & OPS+? I want to be on the same page in case I do Guerrero's & Pujols' relative OBP & Expected OPS+. I've been using BBRef, but I want to make sure I'm using the same stats you are.

      Comment


      • Yes, BBref, league by league. I won't post the excel file since you said you don't have it.

        This is what I have so far for a data base. Still working on the SLGeff though.

        OPS+-OBP-SA-SLGeff.jpg
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • Oh, and here's Mays/Aaron best five and ten. Couldn't be more tight but Aaron eeks out a 10 year victory thanks in part to a lower league slugging. For what it's worth, their league OPS+ is the exact same (to the decimal), so removing pitchers wouldn't change anything.

          Actually, best 10 might be a better measure of true greatness, than seeing career numbers. If I had a choice, I think I'd value best ten over overall when ranking player. Maybe a 70/30 split, if I could figure out a way to make that work mathematically. Taking away early years and decline years, but not excluding them if they happened to be great. Sounds good to me. What do you think?

          MaysAaronBest10.jpg
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-28-2014, 09:34 PM.
          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            Oh, and here's Mays/Aaron best five and ten. Couldn't be more tight but Aaron eeks out a 10 year victory thanks in part to a lower league slugging. For what it's worth, their league OPS+ is the exact same (to the decimal), so removing pitchers wouldn't change anything.

            Actually, best 10 might be a better measure of true greatness, than seeing career numbers. If I had a choice, I think I'd value best ten over overall when ranking player. Maybe a 70/30 split, if I could figure out a way to make that work mathematically. Taking away early years and decline years, but not excluding them if they happened to be great. Sounds good to me. What do you think?

            [ATTACH]139170[/ATTACH]
            That's close enough to make a Norelco razor commercial.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by brett View Post
              I like it. Really, what I will keep coming back for is the expected OPS+. You put in the work and that should stand as a reference. BBRef has had the single season sOPS+ on the road, but never did it for career, nor did they factor out pitchers.

              I would like to see Piazza's next!
              Piazza and a few others are finished. He gained 8 OPS+ points and finished just a hair behind Foxx.

              You were right about Boggs. Overall he loses 15 OPS+ points, down to 116 when adjusted.
              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                Actually, best 10 might be a better measure of true greatness, than seeing career numbers. If I had a choice, I think I'd value best ten over overall when ranking player. Maybe a 70/30 split, if I could figure out a way to make that work mathematically. Taking away early years and decline years, but not excluding them if they happened to be great. Sounds good to me. What do you think?
                In general, I agree with that approach
                I do prefer 10 best consecutive years, since it rewards consistency over many seasons. But that runs into problems with players who missed time for military duty.

                My overall formula for ranking hitters is:
                Best 10 consecutive years- weighed twice (with adjustments for players missing time due to war)
                Best 14-15 consecutive years- weighed once (adjusted for those who missed time due to war)
                Best 4 hitting seasons- weighed once
                Career value/rate stats- weighed once

                Granted, if I do 10 best overall it eliminates some problems, but really only a few all-time great hitters missed multiple seasons during their prime.

                But now that I think about it, using 10 best seasons for those few players affected would make things much easier, and it makes sense too.

                Comment


                • Interesting stuff. Milwaukee was a bad offensive park, but even worse for Mathews, but notice how guys who lose slugging at home (or on the road, Boggs) often DON'T suffer much in the OB% department. Wonder if there is a reputation thing going on.

                  Also unexpected, Cobb's park tend to reduce offense. He had higher rates on the road, but a little lower relative rates. In fact, Cobb has a 102 road "t"-ops+ but his adjusted s-OPS+ as you calculated turns out to be 164-165 which means he park adjusted home road splits were 106/94 (versus the normal 104/96). It means his park was a solid 6+% below average.

                  I think Ott tends to get rated a little higher than Mathews, but I'd flip flop them now.

                  In fact Mathews, given 2100+ games at third base may exceed Foxx and Lajoie. How about Frank Robinson v Mathews?
                  Last edited by brett; 05-29-2014, 08:12 AM.

                  Comment


                  • I think players deserve credit for lasting, but of course it cuts rates. If you take a players margin OPS+ above some level like 60 or 80 and multiply it by games or plate appearances it avoids giving too much for hanging on.

                    For example, if a guy has a 140 OPS+ for 12,000 PAs and another guy is 170 for 8000 PAs , and you use a margin baseline of 80, you would get:

                    Player 1: 140-80=+60 x 12,000 PAs (and maybe divide by 650) to get +1108 (that is OPS+ above margin x seasons)

                    Player 2: 170-80=+90 x 8000 PAs is also +1108

                    Or you can set whatever baseline you like, though I wouldn't go above 100. 80 would be about half way between "replacement" and average.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by brett View Post
                      How about Frank Robinson v Mathews?
                      Best 10 or overall?

                      Here's overall. This was painful since I love Robby but he takes a hit.

                      Code:
                                                                                                                                                     
                                              HOME     AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)          HOME    AWAY    .(AWAY * 1.02)            .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)   
                                      .SA       SA       SA     EXP OVR SA   LG SA   ADJ REL SA    OBP     OBP     OBP     EXP OVR OBP    LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+   EXPECTED OPS+
                      Code:
                      EMathews       .509     .488	 .529	  .5395    .3872     1.393     .376    .370    .382      .3896      .3196        1.219       92.88      149.7
                      Code:
                      FRobinson      .537     .573	 .504	  .5140    .3778     1.360     .389    .403    .376      .3835      .3179        1.206       94.19      147.5
                      Code:
                      Schmidt	       .527     .540	 .515	  .5253    .3741     1.404     .380    .393    .368      .3753      .3207        1.170       93.61      147.3
                      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-29-2014, 11:05 AM.
                      "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                      ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by brett View Post
                        Yea, on base percentage is very very close to 1.02 as well.

                        The problem with lefties and righties is that righties hit righties much better than lefties hit lefties, as a group. There have been several avenues like looking at how lefties and righties hit overall and just comparing lefties to lefties and righties to righties, but each method creates complications, like the fact that righties would get compared to middle infielders and catchers more, and lefties would be compared to first basemen, DHs and outfielders.
                        Just to go back to the platoon thing.

                        From the splits at BBref using only career PA off OPPOSITE HANDED STARTING PITCHERS, we see the % difference. For the modern guys that we have complete data for, their PA off opposite handed relievers and starters is in parenthesis. We can see a few % points drop. And that's with specialized relievers being used heavily. I don't think older players would see more than a 2% drop. Some, like Ruth and Williams probably a little bigger drop than others.

                        Forgetting what position they played. Only thinking about what they did on their own, I'd like to figure out a way to give righties a little more credit. I understand they probably hit better overall off their same handed pitcher, probably due to them seeing more often. Most parks throughout history have favored lefties and they're further from first after contact.

                        Look at a guy like Piazza, a right handed hitter whose home park hurt him, he faced more specialized relief than older players, AND he was a catcher on top of it all. If you wanna toss this idea out completely, once and for all, that's okay. This is about progressing, not invalidating something otherwise credible.

                        TWilliams --- 79.98%
                        Griffey------- 73.96% (69.14%)
                        BaBonds---- 72.36% (67.10%)
                        Ruth-------- 71.44%

                        JDiMaggio--- 30.56%
                        Thomas----- 28.05% (24.26%)
                        Piazza------- 23.26% (23.13%)
                        Foxx -------- 16.61%
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • You know, if I was going to do something in that regard, the simplest approach I think is best because it is statistically about as good as other approaches that are much more complicated.

                          And that is that we compare a left handed and a right handed hitter who are at about the same level to set up a left to right relative OPS+.

                          My first question would be, if we just look at outfielders, what percentage are left handed and what percentage are right handed?

                          If we took maybe the 3 players per team with one year sampled per decade, who played the most in the outfield.

                          OR we could take the ONE outfielder from each team for every year who played the most games in the outfield for their team.

                          Anyway I will help you try to figure something out step by step. Step 1 is to come up with a method to find out what percentage of "neutral throwing position" players batted left and right handed. Any ideas? You can't use first base because right handed hitting first basemen typically have to hit better then left handed because it is a slight defensive disadvantage, and those guys might be able to play elsewhere. I think you can only use outfielders. I think you need to look at anyone with some set number of games in the outfield, or take a certain number of outfielders from each league depending on how many teams there were (ie 8 from an 8 team league, 16 from a 16, or you can do 16 or 24 from the 8 team league as long as you take twice as many from the 16 tear league.)

                          All we need is the percentage of outfielders who were left and right handed hitters, and the OPS+s of a set number from each year, or sample years in proportion to the number of teams in the league.

                          Now I have to say, I don't like it. Right handers have learned to bat lefty. Collins, Cochrane, Brett, Berra. We should count them as right handers then because they WERE right handers who bettered their stats by developing as left side hitters. Dimaggio had every right to bat left handed. He didn't because he was BETTER from the right side.

                          but anyway, I think this method of looking at outfielders OPS+ divided by handedness is going to be 10X easier, and just as effective as looking at split data, where ultimately is impossible to account for everything.

                          Comment


                          • Ok, thanks for the response Brett.

                            Sounds like something perhaps worthwhile to explore on it's own but not for inclusion with our current goings-on. I'll check into it a bit. On the other hand, when talking about JUST CATCHERS, is there any small (and simple) adjustment that makes sense?

                            Anyhoot....

                            Remember when power hitters used to look like Straw (not 6'6" but relatively speaking ) When sluggers went into the year aiming for a 30 HR/100 RBI season HAHA

                            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-29-2014, 01:15 PM.
                            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                            Comment


                            • Yes. Catchers average about an 83 OPS+. If Piazza is what 151, and you divide it by .83 you get around 181 which is what he hit relative to catchers. Still its not straightforward. Its not like catchers would be average hitters if they played first base.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                                Yes. Catchers average about an 83 OPS+. If Piazza is what 151, and you divide it by .83 you get around 181 which is what he hit relative to catchers. Still its not straightforward. Its not like catchers would be average hitters if they played first base.
                                That's true.

                                We can't even capture their entire (and perhaps their most important contributions) defensive value. Let alone figure out how much the wear and tear, split focus, nagging injuries (especially to the hands) impacts their hitting.

                                Would never suggest something that extreme. If anything, I would multiply their expected OPS by 1.02. It's what we assume for a "normal" home boost, so it seems reasonable to apply that again. We can't just do stuff like that though, without a formula telling us to. As mentioned before, that doesn't exist.

                                Perhaps it's best left to the user to factor it in. It would bring Piazza's 151.2 up to 154.2, past Foxx but nothing outlandish. It's not going to turn Ivan Rodriguez into Piazza, but it's a little something for the Carter, Bench, Fisk, Berra's of the world. Oh and my boy Schalk, the defensive genius. But he would need about 2.02 of boost LOL

                                On a side note, was working on something else for Lou. Thought you might like to see this.

                                AL teams' majority 1Bman OPS+

                                1BmanOPSgehrigscareer.jpg
                                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                                Comment

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