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  • I noticed that Wade Boggs had 362 doubles at home and 216 on the road during his career. If those marginal 146 doubles were outs in a normal park, his home average drops to .322 and his home slugging drops to .427. And on base to about .423.

    It looks like a .423/.427 on base and slugging at home would have been in line with his road rates, although I still have to believe that hitting in a park like that changes your approach and maybe costs you half the difference on the road.

    My tendancy right now is to split the difference between actual OPS+ and road predicted OPS+ when evaluating players for my all time list. That still would cost Boggs about 11 career WAR and I think is generous to him. It drops him from 29th to 35th or 36th (about equal with Carew) in career WAR if we assume that his defense is right (which I don't).

    Do we have Clemente up now. Besides Dimaggio, Clemente has come up the most in the last 5 years with a deeper look at the stats. Clemente gets a solid plus for baserunning and huge defensive numbers for a corner outfielder.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by brett View Post
      I don't know if it would confuse people, but it would help me to see OPS+ right before or after expected OPS+. From those two numbers I can almost immediately calculate how many WAA the player would have gained or lost in a normal park.
      Good call!

      I will put ACTUAL OPS+ in parentheses right after expected. Speaking of that. Would it be more accurate to say Neutral OPS+?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by brett View Post
        I have one request to go on your things to do if you get around to it. Either Sulton or layson. Can you run Cobb's numbers just through the 1917 season? I think it will show that his dominance compared to other deadballers is comparable to what Ted Williams did with the live ball.
        Next to Cobb I put ('14-'28) because BBref splits only go back that far. Are you wanting just those four years then? 1914-1917? Might as well take it to 1919. And get six years of deadball. The ball was still mush and doushed, cut, and molested by any means necessary.

        Comment


        • Ok, re-formatting done...and Clemente is done. He takes a five point hit. Just a head of him is Griffey, who takes a little bigger hit. No surprise his adjusted rel OBP is just 1.08
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-31-2014, 11:39 AM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            Next to Cobb I put ('14-'28) because BBref splits only go back that far. Are you wanting just those four years then? 1914-1917? Might as well take it to 1919. And get six years of deadball. The ball was still mush and doushed, cut, and molested by any means necessary.
            There is a way to estimate what Cobb's home & road splits would be from 1905-13. For estimated road numbers, take the percentage difference between his total & his away numbers and apply them to his 1905-1913 stats.

            Example:
            Total slg. 1914-1928- .510
            Road slg. .516
            % difference = .006/.510 = .0118= +1.18%

            Estimated road slg 1905-1913= .515 + 1.18% = .521
            Expected SLG 1905-1913 = .521 x 1.02=.531

            The other percentages from 1914-1928 I got are:
            BA road- +1.92%
            OBP road- +.91%


            I'm no math wiz, so if the math isn't sound someone please let me know.
            Again, these are just estimated numbers based on Cobb's 1914-1928 seasons but it may serve some purpose. An estimate is better than nothing.
            Last edited by layson27; 05-31-2014, 11:01 AM.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by brett View Post

              My tendancy right now is to split the difference between actual OPS+ and road predicted OPS+ when evaluating players for my all time list. That still would cost Boggs about 11 career WAR and I think is generous to him. It drops him from 29th to 35th or 36th (about equal with Carew) in career WAR if we assume that his defense is right (which I don't).
              It's obviously your call, but my :twocents: is that it's counter-productive. You just go right back to rewarding guys who got helped by their park, and right back to punishing guys that were hurt by their home park. The true perspective we've gained becomes foggy once again. The idea is to see what they were, outside of a park with quirks to it, like Fenway, or Coors.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                There is a way to estimate what Cobb's home & road splits would be from 1905-13. For estimated road numbers, take the percentage difference between his total & his away numbers and apply them to his 1905-1913 stats.

                Example:
                Total slg. 1914-1928- .510
                Road slg. .516
                % difference = .006/.510 = .0118= +1.18%

                Estimated road slg 1905-1913= .515 + 1.18% = .521
                Expected SLG 1905-1913 = .521 x 1.02=.531

                The other percentages from 1914-1928 I got are:
                BA road- +1.92%
                OBP road- +.91%


                I'm no math wiz, so if the math isn't sound someone please let me know.
                Again, these are just estimated numbers based on Cobb's 1914-1928 seasons but it may serve some purpose. An estimate is better than nothing.
                Estimate is certainly better than nothing, but those are delicate years to project. As you know, the handful of years before the cork center and the few after, where offense spiked, could impact things greatly. From 1913 to 1914, AL league BA dropped 8 points, and the OPS dropped 19 points. In one year.

                Here's a better illustration. Check out the gap between OBP and SA that was created, and then it tapers.

                AL1907-1915.jpg

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                  Good call!

                  I will put ACTUAL OPS+ in parentheses right after expected. Speaking of that. Would it be more accurate to say Neutral OPS+?
                  I believe that it is better to call it road predicted OPS+ in all honesty, or road relative OPS+.

                  One thing I can do, if you want to put it in the table or not is up to you, is give you a +/- WAA based on the road OPS+. So for example, Dimaggio looks like he would be about +11 WAA based on his road numbers.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                    It's obviously your call, but my :twocents: is that it's counter-productive. You just go right back to rewarding guys who got helped by their park, and right back to punishing guys that were hurt by their home park. The true perspective we've gained becomes foggy once again. The idea is to see what they were, outside of a park with quirks to it, like Fenway, or Coors.
                    Of course its about personal rankings. The issue for me is not about rewarding a player, but that guys with high offensive parks tend to suffer more on the road, than those with normal parks.

                    Matt Holiday for example in '06 was 116 on the road and 158 at home and '07 had a 130 on the road and 170 at home, and that is park adjusted, but has been basically balanced in StL (some ups and some downs road versus home). Galarraga and Burks both had their road OPS+s rise when they left CO. So its not about rewarding, its about avoiding the potential harm of a cushy home park when you go on the road. Eventually we may be able to predict the effects of a high offensive park on road OPS+s though.

                    Its going to be fun ranking my top 50 this summer. Its been a long time.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by brett View Post
                      I believe that it is better to call it road predicted OPS+ in all honesty, or road relative OPS+.

                      One thing I can do, if you want to put it in the table or not is up to you, is give you a +/- WAA based on the road OPS+. So for example, Dimaggio looks like he would be about +11 WAA based on his road numbers.
                      Not sure about adding it to the chart. Do you think it would be worthwhile? Do people understand or care about WAA?

                      But it is valuable information. Perhaps we could take that number, and incorporate it with RTV to get another stat?

                      53chartInfo.jpg
                      Code:
                                                                                                                     
                      BaBonds     245/188/170/161 (129 - five)       2.528        103     98       6.368 (123.5)               216            111.93 (5.77)    46.53      76.57
                      
                      Ruth        236/214/195/172 (137 - one)        2.118        103     97       7.710 (125.8)               240            127.79 (7.82)    51.10      93.32
                      
                      TWilliams   221/195/173/161 (none)             2.221        106     94       6.249 (94.10)               213            105.87 (7.03)    44.69      76.33
                      
                      Gehrig      208/183/164/NA  (129 - two)        2.457        95      104      5.280 (78.50)               196             90.05 (6.06)    42.31      75.54
                      
                      Hornsby     206/179/154/NA  (130 - two)        2.702        103     97       6.685 (97.50)               221             86.30 (5.91)    40.65      71.61
                      
                      Mantle      204/170/152/141 (117 - one)        2.894        104     96       5.170 (78.80)               194             80.49 (5.28)    36.68      60.27
                      
                      Cobb        201/188/169/166 (128 - six)        3.078        98      102      5.058 (101.8)               192            105.33 (5.23)    35.80      64.16
                      
                      Brouthers   197/173/NA/NA   (137 - two)        3.071        NA      NA       4.640 (54.80)               184             61.25 (5.18)    26.35      47.55
                      
                      Foxx        193/164/142/NA  (127 - one)        2.676        114     86       4.225 (62.90)               177             70.22 (4.72)    35.15      59.81
                      
                      McGwire     193/148/NA/NA   (104 - two)        3.137        102     98       3.139 (37.00)               157             52.47 (4.31)    28.85      44.01  
                      
                      BaBonds(98) 192/163/114/NA  (none)             3.077        101     99       5.954 (74.20)               208             56.84 (4.55)    31.69      53.40   
                      
                      Lajoie      189/153/138/122 (82 - two)         3.901        NA      NA       4.225 (68.00)               177             60.46 (3.75)    29.52      45.61
                      
                      Wagner      186/165/148/127 (107 - three)      3.848        NA      NA       5.090 (92.00)               192             67.10 (3.71)    27.88      49.48
                      
                      FThomas     186/160/125/NA  (119 - one)        3.047        109     91       2.522 (39.10)               146             66.71 (4.30)    31.44      54.33
                      
                      Delahanty   185/159/105/NA  (none)             3.160        NA      NA       3.234 (41.80)               159             50.54 (3.91)    28.33      49.54
                      
                      Musial      184/169/151/138 (111 - four)       3.007        106     94       4.170 (81.60)               176             89.51 (4.57)    35.03      64.04
                      
                      Pujols      184/161/134/NA  (none)             3.023        101     99       5.095 (67.00)               192             65.24 (4.96)    33.27      58.21
                      
                      Connor      183/162/144/124 (111 - one)        3.566        NA      NA       3.989 (54.30)               172             52.09 (3.82)    23.02      40.10
                      
                      JJackson    183/NA/NA/NA    (151 - four)       3.197        97      102      4.612 (40.40)               184             46.30 (5.28)    31.49         NA
                      
                      Speaker     182/171/153/143 (124 - three)      3.321        113     88       4.796 (88.50)               187             85.58 (4.64)    31.99      58.22
                      
                      Aaron       182/165/154/150 (126 - six)        3.579        102     98       4.313 (92.50)               178             91.88 (4.28)    31.53      55.90
                      
                      Anson       182/156/133/116 (103 - three)      3.825        NA      NA       3.172 (55.30)               157             56.34 (3.23)    20.84      34.93
                      
                      Mize        178/159/NA/NA   (107 - two)        3.176        109     92       3.942 (44.70)               171             51.36 (4.53)    28.33      49.01
                      
                      McCovey     178/157/128/102 (none)             3.821        103     97       2.038 (30.40)               137             51.24 (3.43)    27.70      43.62
                      
                      FRobinson   178/156/151/139 (126 - three)      3.538        110     90       3.581 (64.70)               165             75.91 (4.20)    28.78      50.30   
                      
                      Mays        176/164/156/145 (122 - three)      3.402        103     98       5.721 (110.0)               204             84.28 (4.38)    30.24      56.42
                      
                      DAllen      176/153/NA/NA   (94 - one)         3.693        104     96       2.932 (33.00)               153             47.17 (4.19)    27.11      44.89
                      
                      Bagwell     176/144/132/NA  (116 - one)        3.292        106     94       3.556 (51.60)               164             57.05 (3.93)    28.78      46.87
                      
                      Ott         175/161/150/142 (135 - two)        3.245        106     94       4.044 (70.60)               173             77.58 (4.44)    29.79      45.36
                      
                      MRamirez    175/156/146/NA  (144 - one)        3.011        101     99       2.360 (35.50)               143             62.54 (4.16)    25.51      45.71 
                      
                      Heilmann    174/146/125/NA  (110 - one)        3.088        103     97       2.805 (38.70)               151             53.15 (3.85)    28.90      46.25
                      
                      JDiMaggio   174/146/NA/NA   (122 - two)        3.033        92      107      4.633 (54.70)               184             50.76 (4.30)    27.38      44.85
                      
                      Stargell    173/149/127/NA  (124 - two)        3.878        106     95       1.900 (26.40)               134             45.37 (3.26)    23.73      37.09
                      
                      Schmidt     169/152/144/108 (none)             3.693        106     95       4.735 (73.30)               186             55.30 (3.57)    23.08      43.48
                      
                      Thome       169/151/133/NA  (120 - two)        3.191        106     94       2.357 (37.40)               143             56.31 (3.55)    26.28      43.60
                      
                      Mathews     169/147/119/110 (none)             3.775        94      106      3.758 (58.40)               168             51.00 (3.28)    25.70      44.30
                      
                      Yaz         169/133/119/115 (105 - seven)      4.254        115     86       2.308 (49.70)               142             46.79 (2.17)    28.19      39.89
                      
                      Belle       169/125/NA/NA   (none)             3.684        104     96       1.645 (16.90)               130             32.52 (3.16)    25.67      33.44    
                      
                      Kiner       169/125/NA/NA   (none)             3.407        112     88       2.680 (25.80)               148             36.82 (3.82)    27.80      36.82
                      
                      Greenberg   169/NA/NA/NA    (140 - four)       2.857        119     80       3.944 (37.00)               171             41.16 (4.38)    26.77      40.53
                      
                      EMartinez   168/149/131/NA  (92 - one)         3.233        102     98       2.877 (38.40)               152             51.44 (3.85)    27.50      47.05
                      
                      RJackson    168/148/137/125 (93 - four)        4.324        96      103      2.004 (35.20)               136             49.75 (2.83)    24.02      40.79
                      
                      Brett       168/144/136/124 (102 - five)       4.085        108     93       2.818 (50.40)               151             42.89 (2.40)    22.57      37.29
                      
                      ECollins    167/147/135/124 (115 - three)      4.053        98      102      4.259 (78.90)               177             66.06 (3.56)    25.44      46.53
                      
                      Sosa        167/124/104/NA  (85 - two)         4.190        106     94       1.839 (28.00)               133             31.72 (2.08)    27.51      35.68
                      
                      ARodriguez  166/146/133/120 (111 - one)        3.383        104     96       4.417 (77.10)               180             60.94 (3.49)    28.70      48.53
                      
                      Piazza      166/142/111/NA  (none)             3.685        91      108      2.979 (35.50)               154             39.59 (3.32)    23.40      37.08
                      
                      ASimmons    166/137/112/93  (none)             3.373        109     91       2.369 (34.70)               143             36.71 (2.50)    24.17      35.11  
                      
                      CJones      165/146/127/118 (112 - two)        3.387        108     92       3.264 (53.30)               159             53.38 (3.27)    25.19      41.47   
                      
                      Killebrew   165/145/137/122 (none)             3.984        103     97       1.857 (28.10)               133             49.19 (3.25)    25.55      41.70
                      
                      FHoward     164/134/NA/NA   (109 - two)        4.489        104     96       0.999 (11.30)               118             35.55 (3.14)    23.53      33.58
                      
                      Griffey Jr  163/143/125/103 (97 - one)         3.710        111     90       2.679 (46.60)               148             42.04 (2.41)    21.07      36.03
                      
                      Morgan      163/133/116/112 (105 - three)      3.976        105     95       3.631 (63.30)               166             47.19 (2.70)    25.69      39.13
                      
                      LWalker     162/136/117/NA  (110 - one)        3.117        120     80       3.901 (48.20)               171             41.32 (3.34)    23.83      35.31
                      
                      SCrawford   161/153/136/122 (106 - one)        4.393        116     84       2.141 (34.90)               139             51.43 (3.15)    21.68      40.49
                      
                      Kaline      160/143/134/121 (98 - three)       4.100        106     94       3.100 (55.30)               156             48.30 (2.71)    21.43      36.26
                      
                      RHenderson  160/140/130/123 (96 - seven)       3.932        96      104      3.331 (68.40)               160             55.10 (2.68)    22.36      37.48
                      
                      Clemente    160/142/123/97  (75 - two)         4.413        106     94       3.615 (56.80)               165             40.58 (2.58)    22.68      38.86
                      
                      Boggs       160/135/115/98  (94 - one)         3.752        118     82       3.443 (56.90)               162             43.60 (2.64)    26.51      40.98
                      
                      Delgado     160/134/113/NA  (none)             3.462        103     98       1.163 (15.50)               121             35.63 (2.67)    22.73      33.79
                      
                      Snider      160/132/NA/NA   (116 - two)         3.618        108     92      2.793 (35.40)               150             38.38 (3.03)    23.74      34.37
                      
                      Helton      160/129/111/NA  (88 - two)         3.113        119     80       2.275 (33.10)               141             40.29 (2.77)    26.92      39.76
                      
                      McGriff     159/141/121/109 (none)             3.875        100     100      1.252 (19.60)               123             39.80 (2.54)    21.01      33.67
                      
                      BHamilton   159/138/116/NA  (none)             3.401        NA      NA       3.383 (39.60)               161             43.56 (3.72)    23.03      39.02
                      
                      HWilson     159/NA/NA/NA    (125 - four)       3.321        108     92       2.503 (21.40)               145             29.10 (3.40)    23.56         NA
                      
                      VGuerrero   158/144/122/NA  (102 - two)        3.690        103     96       2.109 (29.40)               139             41.50 (2.98)    21.79      37.18
                      
                      WClark      157/133/120/NA  (101 - one)        3.716        105     94       2.260 (28.80)               141             35.77 (2.80)    19.95      29.44
                      
                      Edmonds     157/130/103/NA  (none)             3.662        103     97       2.842 (34.90)               151             29.05 (2.36)    19.85      29.24
                      
                      FBaker      157/121/NA/NA   (99 - one)         4.621        112     89       3.600 (36.80)               165             27.36 (2.67)    20.75      27.62 
                      
                      EMurray     155/136/124/113 (93 - three)       4.412        100     100      1.369 (27.00)               125             39.36 (1.99)    20.04      33.84 
                      
                      Vaughan     154/130/NA/NA   (107 - one)        3.869        102     98       3.981 (47.30)               172             36.86 (3.02)    23.24      34.90
                      
                      GFoster     154/119/NA/NA   (92 - two)         4.780        101     99       1.522 (18.30)               140             23.60 (1.96)    19.12      24.90
                      
                      PWaner      153/135/126/102 (none)             3.636        110     90       2.336 (38.70)               142             49.33 (2.98)    24.20      40.27
                      
                      BiWilliams  153/132/118/109 (none)             4.170        110     90       1.668 (27.00)               130             39.27 (2.42)    21.90      34.25 
                      
                      Goslin      153/127/112/NA  (106 - two)        3.702        97      102      2.023 (30.60)               136             34.88 (2.30)    20.82      31.77  
                      
                      Wynn        153/127/NA/NA   (89 - two)         4.623        104     95       2.320 (28.60)               142             31.10 (2.25)    22.68      34.10
                      
                      Gwynn       152/133/124/115 (none)             4.071        103     97       2.312 (36.40)               142             40.90 (2.60)    20.10      32.00
                      
                      Ewing       152/131/NA/NA   (none)             4.330        NA      NA       3.186 (28.30)               158             17.95 (2.02)    11.02      17.82
                      
                      Olerud      152/123/114/NA  (100 - two)        3.922        99      101      1.957 (27.30)               135             32.17 (2.30)    21.58      29.89
                      
                      Lynn        150/128/109/NA  (99 - one)         4.284        115     86       1.968 (27.00)               135             25.45 (2.09)    17.10      25.26
                      
                      Banks       150/121/107/93  (none)             4.802        113     87       1.788 (28.60)               132             25.82 (1.61)    19.83      27.94
                      
                      Parker      150/118/101/NA  (86 - two)         4.862        109     92       0.408 (6.400)               107             21.36 (1.36)    19.62      24.27    
                      
                      Murphy      150/115/96/NA   (80 - one)         4.733        113     88       1.157 (16.10)               121             23.25 (1.67)    20.24      26.34   
                      
                      Mattingly   150/114/NA/NA   (89 - two)         4.416        107     94       1.473 (17.50)               126             22.44 (1.89)    20.37      24.62     
                      
                      Wheat       149/132/121/111 (99 - one)         4.355        106     94       1.840 (28.30)               133             35.10 (2.28)    18.76      28.27
                      
                      MVaughn     149/117/NA/NA   (none)             3.654        110     90       0.557 (5.500)               110             10.51 (1.06)    17.49      20.17
                      
                      EDavis      148/NA/NA/NA    (120 - three)      4.184        102     98       1.681 (15.90)               130             19.44 (2.05)    15.43         NA
                      
                      Mauer       148/NA/NA/NA    (119 - three)      3.760        97      103      3.404 (26.50)               162             21.80 (2.80)    17.14         NA
                      
                      Averill     147/125/NA/NA   (103 - one)        3.366        117     83       2.052 (22.80)               137             29.52 (2.65)    19.83      30.20
                      
                      Hartnett    146/122/114/NA  (111 - one)        4.088        107     93       2.627 (29.50)               147             22.97 (2.04)    13.39      19.35
                      
                      Yount       146/121/104/94  (83 - three)       5.084        103     98       1.974 (37.20)               136             23.44 (1.24)    19.06      27.95
                      
                      JRobinson   146/113/NA/NA   (none)             3.801        104     96       4.401 (39.30)               180             26.14 (2.92)    20.14      26.14
                      
                      Campanella  146/NA/NA/NA    (91 - four)        4.293        118     83       2.105 (15.60)               138             12.53 (1.69)    14.93         NA
                      
                      Grich       145/125/108/NA  (98 - one)         4.839        100     99       3.439 (43.50)               162             26.70 (2.11)    15.07      24.65
                      
                      Ripken      145/116/104/94  (83 - three)       5.143        96      104      2.684 (53.20)               148             19.60 (0.98)    18.87      25.87
                      
                      Rose        144/129/119/116 (90 - seven)       4.654        107     94       1.182 (28.90)               121             38.39 (1.57)    19.82      34.00
                      
                      KHernandez  144/128/116/NA  (none)             4.288        102     98       2.409 (31.70)               144             29.79 (2.22)    17.53      27.97
                      
                      Raines      144/127/111/100 (none)             4.077        104     97       2.196 (35.00)               140             29.95 (1.88)    16.62      25.64
                      
                      Bench       144/124/110/NA  (98 - one)         4.806        104     96       3.500 (46.70)               163             28.49 (2.13)    16.50      25.54     
                      
                      Galarraga   143/117/99/NA   (70 - one)         4.362        113     87       0.248 (3.400)               104             20.34 (1.48)    16.97      22.58
                      
                      Gehringer   142/128/111/NA  (79 - two)         3.661        102     99       2.887 (45.50)               152             35.29 (2.24)    20.24      32.84
                      
                      Beltran     142/127/103/NA  (69 - one)         4.063        100     100      2.847 (39.20)               151             24.67 (1.79)    13.70      22.76
                      
                      Cochrane    142/120/NA/NA   (98 - one)         3.629        104     97       3.089 (29.50)               156        
                      
                      Dickey      142/117/NA/NA   (82 - one)         3.834        103     97       2.907 (31.60)               153
                      
                      Dawson      141/123/113/106 (92 - one)         5.020        102     98       1.738 (28.80)               131             24.54 (1.48)    15.13      23.63
                      
                      Slaughter   141/122/105/NA  (none)             4.224        109     91       1.588 (22.20)               129             28.62 (2.05)    16.06      25.23
                      
                      Fisk        141/113/102/NA  (78 - one)         4.190        105     94       2.322 (35.10)               142     
                      
                      Trammell    141/110/89/NA   (85 - two)         5.090        105     95       2.779 (40.10)               150             13.05 (0.90)    15.14      20.03
                      
                      Boudreau    141/110/NA/NA   (none)             4.900        93      106      3.914 (42.30)               171             19.76 (1.83)    16.22      21.21
                      
                      GDavis      140/123/118/106 (87 - two)         4.924        NA      NA       3.097 (48.50)               156             26.40 (1.68)    13.39      21.92
                      
                      RAlomar     140/117/104/89  (none)             4.389        105     95       2.018 (32.30)               136             23.67 (1.48)    17.38      25.91    
                      
                      Cey         140/115/101/NA  (none)             4.891        100     99       2.002 (25.90)               136             21.67 (1.69)    13.73      20.13                
                      
                      Nomar G     140/NA/NA/NA    (108 - four)       3.884        109     91       2.571 (24.20)               146             17.87 (1.90)    15.49         NA
                      
                      Puckett     139/124/NA/NA   (85 - two)         4.400        117     82       2.108 (25.40)               138             23.24 (1.93)    16.78      25.81                    
                      
                      Larkin      139/120/102/NA  (75 - two)         4.328        106     94       3.028 (42.20)               155             19.83 (1.42)    14.85      21.08
                      
                      Sandberg    139/111/90/NA   (82 - one)         4.729        114     86       2.668            19.89            18.67               24.30                 
                      
                      Rolen       138/124/104/NA  (none)             4.097        104     97       3.350                    161             22.58 (1.72)    14.25      23.01 
                      
                      Berra       138/123/114/NA  (none)             4.450        106     94       2.628
                      
                      Biggio      138/116/106/94  (81 - three)       4.515        105     95       1.481            24.36            17.11               25.91          
                      
                      GCarter     138/116/96/NA   (none)             5.255        106     94       2.868
                      
                      Tettleton   138/NA/NA/NA    (115 - three)      4.489        113     87       1.108
                      
                      GBurns OF   137/109/83/NA (none)    5.521      99     101
                      
                      Van Slyke   136/110/NA/NA   (82 - one)         4.689        97      103      2.021
                      
                      Utley       135/NA/NA/NA    (117 - four)       3.748        107     93       4.745 (41.20)               186       18.90            14.89                  NA
                      
                      HJohnson    135/NA/NA/NA    (94 - three)       4.918        97      103      0.409
                      
                      IRodriguez  134/105/97/89   (77 - three)       5.190        107     93       2.088
                      
                      Jeter       133/122/109/101 (90 - one)         4.211        105     96       1.759 (32.40)               132             35.46 (1.92)    18.43      30.91
                      
                      Garvey      133/119/100/NA  (91 - one)         5.415        104     96       0.446 (6.50)                108
                      
                      Gant        133/112/NA/NA   (90 - two)         4.858        106     94       0.985 (11.10)               118
                      
                      JCollins    132/107/83/NA   (none)             5.241        NA      NA       2.311 (78.90)               142             11.49 (1.00)    10.83      27.49
                      
                      Appling     131/115/105/NA  (91 - two)         4.545        102     98       2.624 (41.40)               147             22.48 (1.42)    12.40      22.40
                      
                      Ashburn     129/111/98/NA   (82 - two)         4.570        103     97       1.882 (28.20)               134             19.51 (1.30)    13.75      21.05
                      
                      BRobinson   128/112/93/83   (58 - one)         6.154        104     96       2.184 (39.60)               139              4.37 (0.24)    10.65      15.40
                      
                      Frisch      126/112/101/89  (none)             4.513        105     95       2.516 (39.10)               145             15.73 (1.01)    12.12      17.70
                      
                      AJones      126/106/NA/NA   (87 - one)         4.776        99      101      2.685 (35.80)               149             11.22 (0.84)    10.95      12.85
                      
                      Nettles     125/112/107/98  (88 - one)         5.609        113     88       2.084 (32.80)               138             10.66 (0.67)     8.69      12.55
                      
                      Ichiro      125/109/84/NA   (none)             4.505        102     98       1.898 (27.10)               134             11.83 (0.83)    11.55      15.95
                      
                      Tejada      125/107/87/NA   (none)             5.194        103     97       1.101 (15.60)               120              9.58 (0.67)    11.99      15.06
                      
                      DLewis      124/94/NA/NA    (none)             6.288        94      106     -0.249 (-2.30)                95              4.32 (0.46)      7.61      5.18
                      
                      Lofton      121/107/101/NA  (92 - two)         4.401        104     96       2.688 (38.20)               149             13.54 (0.95)     9.60      13.04
                      
                      Traynor     119/108/92/NA   (none)             4.602        109     92       0.799 (10.20)               114              9.05 (0.71)    10.24      10.23
                      
                      OSmith      104/92/80/70    (48 - one)         6.512        104     97       2.509 (41.60)               145            -12.32 (-0.74)     2.97       1.17
                      
                      Rizzuto     104/85/NA/NA    (52 - one)         6.259        105     95       2.002 (20.70)               136             -3.24 (-0.31)     3.54      -0.80    
                      
                      Dunston     98/NA/NA/NA     (77 - four)        6.500        109     92      -0.901 (-8.70)                83             -8.00 (-0.83)    -2.40         NA
                      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-31-2014, 12:15 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                        Estimate is certainly better than nothing, but those are delicate years to project. As you know, the handful of years before the cork center and the few after, where offense spiked, could impact things greatly. From 1913 to 1914, AL league BA dropped 8 points, and the OPS dropped 19 points. In one year.

                        Here's a better illustration. Check out the gap between OBP and SA that was created, and then it tapers.

                        [ATTACH]139246[/ATTACH]
                        Estimating yearly totals would be iffy for sure, but I was thinking about more of a general prediction of his expected OPS+ for those 9 years with no split data.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by brett View Post
                          Of course its about personal rankings.
                          Speaking of that, how on earth can a guy like Rickey compete with other players on the list.

                          Tell me if this is crazy. Take the value of a SB using that linear weights thingy and then multiplying his number of SB by it. Maybe incorporate that into TB which would impact SLGeff.

                          Comment


                          • Just to finish up on Cobb.
                            His "estimated" road OBP% for 1905-1913 is .424. I plugged his estimated 1905-13 road SLG% & OBP into the OPS+ calculator @ http://wahoosonfirst.com/war-calcula...s/version-2-1/. That resulted in an estimated road OPS+ of 185- four points above actual.

                            Combining his 1905-1913 estimated road OPS+ with his 1914-1928 expected/road predicted OPS+ of 165 results in a estimated road predicted career OPS+ of 173-five points above actual.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                              Speaking of that, how on earth can a guy like Rickey compete with other players on the list.

                              Tell me if this is crazy. Take the value of a SB using that linear weights thingy and then multiplying his number of SB by it. Maybe incorporate that into TB which would impact SLGeff.
                              Well it would be pretty easy to add in a player's baserunning runs to his batting runs. If a player has 400 batting runs and 50 baserunning runs, and he has a 140 OPS+, his OPS++baserunning would be (450/400 x 40) plus 100. 450/400 would show his baserunning adjusted runs above average in ratio to just hit batting runs above average. A 140 OPS+ is 40 points above average so the 40 gets multiplied by the ratio and then added to 100 (the average level).

                              I would do that as an additional stat if you want it. Since I plan to use your projected OPS+ to adjust WAR or WAA up and down, I am doing it the other way around.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                                Well it would be pretty easy to add in a player's baserunning runs to his batting runs. If a player has 400 batting runs and 50 baserunning runs, and he has a 140 OPS+, his OPS++baserunning would be (450/400 x 40) plus 100. 450/400 would show his baserunning adjusted runs above average in ratio to just hit batting runs above average. A 140 OPS+ is 40 points above average so the 40 gets multiplied by the ratio and then added to 100 (the average level).

                                I would do that as an additional stat if you want it. Since I plan to use your projected OPS+ to adjust WAR or WAA up and down, I am doing it the other way around.
                                My fault for not being more clear.

                                For sure, if we were looking to go a bit further and look at a players total contributions, base-running, and stolen bases would be part of that.

                                Talking about just for SLGeff purposes here, I'm wondering if there's a way to add to the TB of some guys who, because of play style, have no shot at competing with the guys they got on base for. Of course, nor should they. It wasn't their role to slug, and it's probably just over-thinking and muddying the waters. Just wanted your opinion.

                                This is sorted by career SB, the top 25. It's PA/SB, and in parenthesis is where they rank on the all-time SA list. N/A means outside the top 1000.

                                Keep in mind too, a couple important rule changes along the way.

                                1909 - If a runner is thrown out on an attempted double-steal, neither runner shall be credited with a stolen base.

                                1920 - No stolen base is to be credited when the defense makes no attempt to get the runner out.

                                Rickey --- 9.492 (738)
                                Brock --- 11.982 (845)
                                Hamilton - 8.323 (585)
                                Cobb ---- 14.586 (75)
                                Raines --- 12.820 (667)
                                Coleman -- 7.938 (N/A)
                                Latham -- 10.140 (N/A)
                                ECollins ---16.253 (623)
                                Wagner -- 16.248 (275)
                                Morgan -- 16.442 (641)
                                WWilson - 12.450 (N/A)
                                TBrown -- 12.488 (N/A)
                                BCampy - 14.830 (N/A)
                                Lofton --- 14.847 (688)
                                Nixon ---- 9.354 (N/A)
                                GDavis -- 16.442 (918)
                                Pierre --- 13.485 (N/A)
                                Hoy ----- 14.068 (N/A)
                                Wills ---- 14.174 (N/A)
                                VHaltren -15.466 (746)
                                OSmith -- 18.582 (N/A)
                                Duffy ---- 13.660 (391)
                                McPhee -- 16.600 (N/A)
                                Butler ---- 17.105 (N/A)
                                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-31-2014, 04:46 PM.

                                Comment

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