Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Just did Mays. So far, him and Schmidt are the only two that have stayed the same as their actual OPS+.

Mays is 10 points behind DiMaggio. How large of a gap is that? I guess what I'm wondering, how much better does Mays have to be in areas other than hitting (I'm not saying he even is), for him to make up that ground, and go ahead overall?

Because as it looks right now people have been either overrating Mays' offense or underrating Dimaggio's offense...or both.

I know you're going bring up the longevity thing, and how stats decline over time and what-not. I've done both their best 10 seasons and DiMaggio wins 1.63 to 1.58. He also creams him in SLGeff.

Mays was a great player. I have him in my top 5 but I'm starting to question that.

Size isn't everything in baseball, we know that. But consider that Mays is listed at 5'10", 170lbs and Kenny Lofton is listed at 6'0", 180lbs. Mays was fast, and built well for his size. Great hitter, great speed, quick bat.

He has a ton of AB.

He's 38th on the all-time AB/HR list. Guys ahead of him include Strawberry, Branyon, Cecil Fielder, Buhner, Sexon, Piazza, Giambi, Kittle.

True, he has a lot of AB. Number 11 on the all-time list, up there with contact hitters and compilers. I don't know, just scratchin' my head over here. I know Matt had Mays as a very good but over-rated defensive center-fielder, in part, because he just hung around a bit too long.

What say you? Am I being too harsh on Willie?

[brett]

Using Dimaggio's road based projections, and WAR to fill in the rest of his value he would have had about 89 WAR in what 1736 games, and I'd guess about 110 in maybe 2150 if he played through the war.

Mays had a peak run of about 105 WAR in 1700 games, and about 130 in 2150 so he's still ahead 130 to 110 not looking at extra longevity issues. I think YS hurt Dimaggio's defensive scores too a little bit.

It also looks like Mays could have lost 8-11 war during that stretch based on your data. So he's still up maybe 120 to 110 over a comparable length career.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Using Dimaggio's road based projections, and WAR to fill in the rest of his value he would have had about 89 WAR in what 1736 games, and I'd guess about 110 in maybe 2150 if he played through the war.

Mays had a peak run of about 105 WAR in 1700 games, and about 130 in 2150 so he's still ahead 130 to 110 not looking at extra longevity issues. I think YS hurt Dimaggio's defensive scores too a little bit.

It also looks like Mays could have lost 8-11 war during that stretch based on your data. So he's still up maybe 120 to 110 over a comparable length career.

Did you mean Dimaggio could have lost 8-11 WAR based on the neutral OPS number?

Anyway...

You're still using WAR, even after all the war on WAR that's been going on?

Evolve to WAA Brett!!! It's all the rage!! Higher baseline when comparing the elites. Jump on the bus ol' buddy!!

Ok, aside from SLGeff, and neutral OPS, DiMaggio also leads in the following extremely important stats that I'm sure Bill James has mentioned...well, never. Maybe for good reason? LOL

JoeD - 3.033 OUTS/RC
Mays - 3.402 OUTS/RC

JoeD - 14.50 PA/Rbat
Mays - 15.44 PA/Rbat

Is it the counting totals? The smile? The planned caper of hat falling off? Because he's black and he's gotta be "up there?" I'm not sure what's going on. To me, DiMaggio was the better player and I think my ratings will change dramatically with many players. Time for change. We climbed the mountain and see beyond. The REVOLUTION BEGINS! Burgess would be proud.

[layson27]

Just did Mays. So far, him and Schmidt are the only two that have stayed the same as their actual OPS+.

Mays is 10 points behind DiMaggio. How large of a gap is that? I guess what I'm wondering, how much better does Mays have to be in areas other than hitting (I'm not saying he even is), for him to make up that ground, and go ahead overall?

Because as it looks right now people have been either overrating Mays' offense or underrating Dimaggio's offense...or both.

I know you're going bring up the longevity thing, and how stats decline over time and what-not. I've done both their best 10 seasons and DiMaggio wins 1.63 to 1.58. He also creams him in SLGeff.

I for one do list DiMaggio ahead of Mays as a hitter. But I take park effects into account probably more than most, and my focus is more on best 10-15 years (hitting prime) rather than career value.

However I also think Mays is a borderline top 10 hitter, and that's where I put him on my list- #10. That's also where he was listed in the "top 30 hitters" thread from last year.

Mays was a great player. I have him in my top 5 but I'm starting to question that.

Size isn't everything in baseball, we know that. But consider that Mays is listed at 5'10", 170lbs and Kenny Lofton is listed at 6'0", 180lbs. Mays was fast, and built well for his size. Great hitter, great speed, quick bat.

He has a ton of AB.

He's 38th on the all-time AB/HR list. Guys ahead of him include Strawberry, Branyon, Cecil Fielder, Buhner, Sexon, Piazza, Giambi, Kittle.


What say you? Am I being too harsh on Willie?

Just focusing on hitting/slugging here.
I don't particulary care for AB/HR (but that's another discussion) Look at ISO. Mays' career ISO is only 3 points behind Mantle's, which indicates to me he had plenty of power, if that's what you're questioning. In fact, through Mantle's last year- 1968, Mays' ISO was 11 points higher- .270. In terms of road ISO, only Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, & DiMaggio were ahead of Mays through 1968!

My only problem regarding various Mays rankings has always been how far Aaron is ranked behind him. Anything more than 3 or 4 spots is borderline ridiculous IMO.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I for one do list DiMaggio ahead of Mays as a hitter

That's definitely unique. I would as well, but I'm also questioning as overall players, given the majority of value is from hitting, we're talking two great centerfielders and baserunners.

In terms of road ISO, only Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, & DiMaggio were ahead of Mays through 1968!

Exactly.

My only problem regarding various Mays rankings has always been how far Aaron is ranked behind him. Anything more than 3 or 4 spots is borderline ridiculous IMO.

They're neck and neck in hitting. Defensive position gives Mays an edge but Aaron was a top 10 defensive rightfielder, which cannot create a 3 or 4 spot gap up that high. If we were talking lower down in the rankings, slivers can separate. But not up there.

When I rank, I'm going to incorporate neutral OPS and then factor in fielding and baserunning from there. Just wish we had full splits going all the way back.

[brett]

Did you mean Dimaggio could have lost 8-11 WAR based on the neutral OPS number?

Anyway...

You're still using WAR, even after all the war on WAR that's been going on?

Evolve to WAA Brett!!! It's all the rage!! Higher baseline when comparing the elites. Jump on the bus ol' buddy!!

I thought about that but as long as I am using the same number of games, the player with the higher WAA will also have more WAR.

Offense was still very high in Dimaggio's first several years, and the game was still reacting to the live ball explosion.

Dimaggio probably lost 10 WAR and 10 WAA as a batter because of his park. For his career he would have had about 110 war in around 2150 games. As a hitter, with a real 166 OPS+ he would probably top Mays as a hitter for me even with longevity issues factored in. Actually he would. I rate him a little better hitter. He probably has a 10 win edge on Mays over the span of his career as a hitter.

If we take Mays from 1953 (one year lost to the war) through 1965 we have 1850 games and that is basically "idealized" Willie Mays. 167 OPS+. If we take Dimaggio from '37 to '50 with most of his lost war credit we also get about the same projected span of games with about a 173 OPS+ based on road numbers. That is compelling. Dimaggio, even with the early live ball boost might rate as a better hitter, and I even think that he DID produce more runs than linear weights predicts by putting the ball in play more. I've raised Dimaggio a lot from early looks that had him down in the 20-25 range by sabermetrics, to newer ways of thinking that moved him above Mantle to around 14th, and maybe he keeps moving up, but its crowded up there.

Mays rates as THE GREATEST baserunner since WWII in terms of advancing on the bases (not based on steals but other advances). I think Dimaggio gets hurt in defensive sabermetrics by his park because he had to play deeper to cut off a lot of doubles.

Mays still played almost 1000 more games after Dimaggio would have been retired, and had 23 WAA, and a 138 OPS+. 1000 games has to count for something. So does integration, but then again so does expansion. The NL was deeper than the AL in Mays career. Dimagggio won WS but underperformed in almost all of them. Mays underperformed in the post season.

The thing is that 2 guys can be basically equal for 2000 games, and one of them add 1000 good games and that can be the difference between a guy in the 8-15 range and a guy in the 2-4 range. If Mays had hung on at an average level like Ripken that's different but he added 23 WAA in those extra 1000 games.

[brett]

greenberg loses 40% of his WAA and 15 war using road based predictions.

[brett]

Once we have career road predicted OPS+ for my top 25 position players, I will start to re-rank them. I haven't done it in a while.

Here's my top 25 though my order hasn't been set for a while

1) Ruth
2) Mays
3) Cobb
4) Wagner
5) Aaron
6) Williams
7) Musial
8) Speaker (Charleston/Bonds)
9) Hornsby
10) Gehrig
11) Schmidt
12) Collins
13) Dimaggio
14) Frank Robinson
15) Mantle
16) Bench
17) Ott (Oh)
18) Lajoie
19) Pujols
20) Mathews (A-Rod?)
21) Morgan
22) Foxx
23) Brett (Pop Lloyd)
24) Berra (Gibson)
25) Jackie Robinson

The following guys are in the top 30 in WAR but get sorted down for park splits or league quality, or because I don't trust what the defensive metrics say:
Kaline: close, looks like slight home park favoring him in particular and also the AL was weaker when he played
Yaz: should lose at least 10 war when looking at road splits.
Ripken: Don't trust the huge defensive runs saved in all those years.

And from 26 down to 30
Clemente (defense brings him back up, but not to top 30)
Anson (LQ though he played a lot of games in a shorter schedule)
Boggs (drops at least 7-8 wins looking at splits. Gets a favorable defensive metric).

That covers all of the position players in war down to Brett at #30, with only Jackie being outside that level, but he had 61 WAR in fewer than 1400 games. Almost 40 WAA. Ripken has only 53 in 3000 and I think he probably loses 7-8 given a look at other defensive metrics. I like Arky Vaughan as a top 30 contender too. 47 WAA in about 1800 games. 72 WAR. That's a lot in a short span. Bagwell might contend too.

In fact, I'll start showing where these guys WAR and WAA would be just using the road based OPS+ estimate for their expected batting.

[layson27]

I'm interested in seeing where Hornsby, Musial, & Mize end up. And I'm sure Aaron will finish up at 156-157, right next to Mays, as usual.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Brett,

That is a lot of games, and it's great to perform well above average for all those extra games.

I really don't see how that could possibly move a guy up that many spots, that high up. The gaps are larger up high on the mountain. I could see two, maybe three spots worth of difference.

When ranking players' greatness, I prefer to give majority value on what they were at their best. Not for two or three years but I think their 10 best shows something, and anything beyond that should indeed be recognized. Guess we just differ on how much weight it should carry.

As for the baserunning, remember he's not being compared to Boog Powell here. Even if we assume he was indeed the greatest runner since WWII, how much production does that translate to on the field?

Guess what I'm saying is this.... Let's take Ted Williams, since he is considered by some the greatest hitter ever. He can create a larger gap between him and a very good hitter, than Mays can with baserunning, vs a very good runner. There's just not that much difference.

Taking an extra base here or there can be a big deal in a tight game. The very good runner will do that too. Once you drop down to the simply good, or average runners, that's where the gap is created. But even then, the attribute just doesn't rank up there like hitting does, in terms of importance. In fact, I could argue that having one of the best outfield arms, impacts the game from an opponent baserunning decision making standpoint as well.

Anyway, I can put priority on the guys you listed, so you can get to it. I think road SLGeff is going to show a lot as well, so maybe expect to re-re-shuffle

Also, do you want me to figure Bonds through '98, just to help with ranking purposes?


re:Greenberg

He's had the biggest drop so far. I thought that would change once I did Larry Walker, but Walker is "only" a 10 point drop, probably because his OBP split is only 61 points in favor of home, compared to his 142 point SA home edge.

Looking just at SA, his raw relative SA of 1.39 dropped to 1.24 road adjusted. That's a pretty big dipper.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I'm interested in seeing where Hornsby, Musial, & Mize end up. And I'm sure Aaron will finish up at 156-157, right next to Mays, as usual.

Mays - 155.7
Aaron -154.3

Remember, Aaron took the Best 10 battle by a hair. His home cookin' later on def contributed to Mays sneakin' by.

Career SLGeff

Mays - .7983
Aaron -.7978

EXP SLGeff

Mays - .8170
Aaron -.8282

Haven't finished league SLGeff so can't get fully adjusted relative yet. If you're bored sometime, I need from '63-present. Even a decade would help :crossfingers:

By the way, DiMaggio's expected is is .9520 and once his league .5354 SA is factored in, he's sittin' at 1.778 or 178 in SLGeff+ terms.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

There's Stan Da Man, coming in just ahead of both Mays and Aaron.

There's an 8 point gap from Cobb down to Musial. Any guesses on who might come between them?

[brett]

Mays - 155.7
Aaron -154.3

Remember, Aaron took the Best 10 battle by a hair. His home cookin' later on def contributed to Mays sneakin' by.

Career SLGeff

Mays - .7983
Aaron -.7978

EXP SLGeff

Mays - .8170
Aaron -.8282

Haven't finished league SLGeff so can't get fully adjusted relative yet. If you're bored sometime, I need from '63-present. Even a decade would help :crossfingers:

By the way, DiMaggio's expected is is .9520 and once his league .5354 SA is factored in, he's sittin' at 1.778 or 178 in SLGeff+ terms.

Yea people don't get it. Dimaggio would have won triple crowns, and challenged .400 and 50+ home runs a few times. In fact I think he DID change his style because based on 1937 I would have thought he might be the guy to challenge Ruth's record (and Gehrig's AL RBI mark, and maybe total bases too) but maybe he did stop hitting the ball in the air as much because of YS.

And Dimaggio takes cuts in OB% on the road too which doesn't always happen. His .405 road OB%, well, I'm not sure how many sabrs would complain if he had a .413-.414 on base percentage.

Anyway, reevaluating with new data is exciting. Dimaggio gets hit from all directions.
He lost 3 years, and doesn't get Williams' boost from people because his stats around the war years look down, but people forget that league runs per game were down by about half a run in 1942.
And look at his home road splits in '42 and '46. He get hit hard from his park.
If he had played in a normal park and just matched his post war (road) rates, he finishes .337 with 520 home runs and 2000 RBI in about 2150 games.
He gets bashed for walks, but the data suggests that he did put up more RBI than would have randomly come from his stats, even in that offensive period.
And the D-metrics say he was a "good" fielder, but they basically count putouts and assists, while in YS it was far more important to cut off gap hits and HOLD runners.

Yes the sands are shifting. Dimaggio is clearly the most sabermetrically underrated player of all time.

[brett]

There's Stan Da Man, coming in just ahead of both Mays and Aaron.

There's an 8 point gap from Cobb down to Musial. Any guesses on who might come between them?

I'd guess Pujols?

[brett]

I don't know if it would confuse people, but it would help me to see OPS+ right before or after expected OPS+. From those two numbers I can almost immediately calculate how many WAA the player would have gained or lost in a normal park.