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Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

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  • Speaking of rule changes. Check a few of these out.

    The silliest one is the sac fly rule being toyed with back and forth. According to this website http://www.baseballlibrary.com/chronology/rules2.php

    This means that the only year of Dimaggio's career, where the sac fly rule was in place, was 1939; which also happens to be his highest BA year of his career.

    1909 - A bunt on a third strike is a strikeout. The catcher is credited with the putout.

    1912 - Earned runs are charged to a pitcher when a player scores by means of safe hits, sacrifice hits, bases on balls, hit batters, wild pitches, and balks.

    1917 - Earned runs are also charged to a pitcher when a player scores by means of a stolen base.

    1900 - No sac fly rule
    .
    .
    1908 - The sacrifice fly rule is adopted, exempting the batter from an at-bat when a run scores after a catch
    .
    .
    1926 - The sacrifice fly rule is amended to exempt a batter from an at-bat when a runner advances from first to second or second to third as well as on scoring
    .
    1931 - The sacrifice fly is eliminated
    .
    .
    1939 - A batter is credited with a sacrifice fly and not charged with a time at bat if he hits a fly ball that is caught and a runner scores on the catch. This rule lasted only a year
    .
    .
    1940 - A batter is no longer credited with a sacrifice fly
    .
    .
    1954 - A batter is credited with a sacrifice fly and not charged with a time at bat if he hits a fly ball and the runner scores on the catch
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-31-2014, 05:15 PM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
      Just to finish up on Cobb.
      His "estimated" road OBP% for 1905-1913 is .424. I plugged his estimated 1905-13 road SLG% & OBP into the OPS+ calculator @ http://wahoosonfirst.com/war-calcula...s/version-2-1/. That resulted in an estimated road OPS+ of 185- four points above actual.

      Combining his 1905-1913 estimated road OPS+ with his 1914-1928 expected/road predicted OPS+ of 165 results in a estimated road predicted career OPS+ of 173-five points above actual.
      Good work Layson, that certainly seems reasonable

      How bout this....

      Can you put your estimation skills to work on Speaker for 1909-1913? If you need anymore info let me know.

      1914
      Home .322/.396/.455
      Away .356/.449/.554

      1915
      Home .344/.439/.439
      Away .302/.392/.386

      1916
      Home .405/.492/.518
      Away .373/.455/.491
      Fenway .361/.465/.500

      1917
      Home .372/.452/.543
      Away .333/.416/.435
      Fenway .400/.455/.550

      1918
      Home .373/.473/.530
      Away .271/.338/.357
      Fenway .238/.289/.310

      1919
      Home .346/.449/.524
      Away .250/.340/.352
      Fenway .257/.366/.343

      1920
      Home .379/.483/.567
      Away .396/.483/.556
      Fenway .407/.543/.519

      1921
      Home .399/.482/.622
      Away .312/.380/.427
      Fenway .563/.667/.813

      1922
      Home .440/.536/.698
      Away .332/.430/.537
      Fenway .429/.500/.714

      1923
      Home .421/.500/.688
      Away .340/.443/.535
      Fenway .413/.491/.522

      1924
      Home .359/.452/.561
      Away .331/.415/.468
      Fenway .262/.367/.381

      1925
      Home .432/.521/.644
      Away .337/.426/.497
      Fenway .286/.286/.314

      1926
      Home .303/.406/.481
      Away .305/.409/.458
      Fenway .238/.360/.310

      1927
      Home .285/.346/.382
      Away .366/.439/.500
      Fenway 364/.400/.455

      1928
      Home .323/.349/.556
      Away .164/.243/.254
      Fenway .208/.269/.292

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
        Good work Layson, that certainly seems reasonable

        How bout this....

        Can you put your estimation skills to work on Speaker for 1909-1913?
        I'll give it a shot. So ignore 1907 & 1908?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
          I'll give it a shot. So ignore 1907 & 1908?
          Up to you, they're barely partials.

          Do you need me to get PA, AB, or OPS+? Or all three? Lemme know. Wanna make it easier for ya.
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-31-2014, 06:50 PM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            Up to you, they're barely partials.
            I'm skipping 1907, so it will 1908-1913.

            Do you need me to get PA, AB, or OPS+? Or all three? Lemme know. Wanna make it easier for ya.
            I can get Speaker's stats from BBRef. For Cobb I used the league OBP & SLG under "more stats" because I was too lazy to get the league averages. If you want to get actual league averages for accuracy I will do the math.

            Incidentally, I forgot to use expected/road predicted averages for Cobb' 1905-1913 seasons so it would be good to "start over" using all the proper numbers. I already have Speaker's estimated 1908-1913 numbers, so that part is done.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
              I'm skipping 1907, so it will 1908-1913.


              I can get Speaker's stats from BBRef. For Cobb I used the league OBP & SLG under "more stats" because I was too lazy to get the league averages. If you want to get actual league averages for accuracy I will do the math.

              Incidentally, I forgot to use expected/road predicted averages for Cobb' 1905-1913 seasons so it would be good to "start over" using all the proper numbers. I already have Speaker's estimated 1908-1913 numbers, so that part is done.
              Ok, I posted everything I have in post #228 as an image. I would post the excel file but you said you don't have it? Oh nevermind, forgot we're looking before 1914. Ok I'll get 'em.

              Comment


              • Here ya go

                1905-1913.jpg
                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-31-2014, 07:36 PM.

                Comment


                • Code:
                  Ty Cobb 1905-1913
                  
                  OBP: .420					SLG: .515
                  Estimated road OBP: .420 + .91% = .424		Estimated road SLG: .515 + 1.18%= .521  
                  Est. Expected OBP: .4325			Est. Expected SLG: .5315 
                  League OBP: .3117				League SLG: .3232
                  Est. EXP REL OBP: 1.388			        Est. EXP REL SLG: 1.6440
                  
                  League OPS+: 94.11
                  Est EXP OPS+: 191
                  Actual OPS+ 181
                  All things considered, this might be a little inflated, but keep in mind Cobb's OPS+ from 1907-1913 was 189. When I put Cobb's est. expected numbers from 1905-1913 into the OPS+ calculator, it resulted in a 190 OPS+. So maybe it isn't that inflated...

                  Will do Speaker tomorrow.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                    Code:
                    Ty Cobb 1905-1913
                    
                    OBP: .420					SLG: .515
                    Estimated road OBP: .420 + .91% = .424		Estimated road SLG: .515 + 1.18%= .521  
                    Est. Expected OBP: .4325			Est. Expected SLG: .5315 
                    League OBP: .3117				League SLG: .3232
                    Est. EXP REL OBP: 1.388			        Est. EXP REL SLG: 1.6440
                    
                    League OPS+: 94.11
                    Est EXP OPS+: 191
                    Actual OPS+ 181
                    All things considered, this might be a little inflated, but keep in mind Cobb's OPS+ from 1907-1913 was 189. When I put Cobb's est. expected numbers from 1905-1913 into the OPS+ calculator, it resulted in a 190 OPS+. So maybe it isn't that inflated...

                    Will do Speaker tomorrow.
                    Thanks Layson. Dang, Brett wasn't too far off, talking about Cobb dominating on the Williams level I guess. Interesting.

                    Comment


                    • Just did Henderson. He comes in one point behind Walker and a couple points ahead of Griffey and Morgan.

                      A couple things.

                      Henderson slugged .419. He was a .435 slugger through age 37. By holding on much longer, he lowered his slugging 16 points AND declined through an extremely offensive era. Both of which, kill his relative SA, only 1.077. Still, his away SA was 28 points higher than home, making his expected SA .4406. Everything looks good, until you factor in the boppers in the league (leadoff hitter vs boppers is fair?), league SA of .409 is higher than everyone so far, except Piazza, Griffey, and Boggs.

                      His OBP makes a nice comeback with his expected being higher than everyone except who you'd expect. Say that ten times

                      By the way. Anyone notice Goslin?

                      Something with that guy and Washington. It killed his stats for 8 full seasons; he goes to play in Sportsman for a few years and he puts up huge home numbers. Then he leaves and goes back to Griffith for a year. Then to Detroit, and then back to Washington to finish up. Weird. Without that stint in St Louis, his splits would be even more extreme.

                      But think about if this guy had been a Yankee. Perhaps he'd be talked about more than...well, never, like he is now. He put up his second highest career SA (by far).555 in YS, with the first being Sportsman.

                      Code:
                                                                                                                                                     
                                              HOME     AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)        .HOME   AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)            .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+)   
                                      .SA       SA       SA     EXP OVR SA   LG SA   ADJ REL SA    OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP    LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+
                      Code:
                       
                      Ruth           .690     .698     .682     .6956    .3809     1.826    .474   .483   .466     .4753       .3418       1.390       94.00      208.3 (206)
                      
                      TWilliams      .634     .652     .615	  .6273    .3825     1.640    .482   .496   .467     .4763       .3367       1.414       93.57      192.1 (190)   
                      
                      Gehrig         .632     .620     .644     .6568    .4038     1.626    .447   .436   .458     .4671       .3516       1.328       93.76      183.2 (179)  
                      
                      BaBonds        .607     .618     .597     .6089    .4040     1.507    .444   .449   .440     .4488       .3281       1.367       93.95      176.0 (182)
                      
                      Hornsby	       .577     .589	 .565	  .5763    .3847     1.498    .434   .437   .431     .4396       .3358       1.309       93.73      169.3 (175)
                      
                      JDiMaggio      .579     .546 	 .610     .6222    .3912     1.590    .398   .391   .405     .4131       .3462       1.193       93.46      166.6 (155)
                      
                      Mantle	       .557     .569	 .545	  .5559    .3774     1.472    .420   .428   .413     .4212       .3229       1.304       93.38      165.8 (172)
                      
                      Cobb('14-'28)  .512     .503	 .516	  .5263    .3714     1.417    .441   .437   .445     .4539       .3404       1.333       94.06      164.6 (168)
                      
                      MRamirez       .585     .591     .580    .5916     .4257     1.389    .411   .413   .409     .4171       .3372       1.236       99.26      161.2 (154)
                      
                      McGwire        .588     .591     .586     .5977    .4129     1.447    .394   .402   .386     .3937       .3347       1.176       98.37      159.6 (163)
                      
                      Musial	       .559     .582	 .537	  .5477    .3853     1.421    .417   .427   .407     .4151       .3285       1.263       93.13      156.8 (159)
                      
                      Mays	       .557     .567	 .549	  .5599    .3835     1.459    .384   .387   .382     .3896       .3199       1.217       92.90      155.7 (156)
                      
                      Aaron	       .555     .557	 .552	  .5630    .3817     1.474    .374   .379   .369     .3763       .3199       1.176       93.56      154.3 (155)
                      
                      Foxx           .609     .663	 .561	  .5722    .3976     1.439    .429   .453   .405     .4131       .3485       1.185       93.60      152.0 (163)
                      
                      Piazza	       .545     .515	 .572	  .5834    .4138     1.409    .377   .364   .388     .3957       .3320       1.191       94.50      151.2 (143)
                      
                      Ott	       .533     .558	 .510	  .5202    .3820     1.361    .415   .422   .408     .4161       .3349       1.242       93.45      149.8 (155)
                      
                      EMathews       .509     .488	 .529	  .5395    .3872     1.393    .376   .370   .382     .3896       .3196       1.219       92.88      149.7 (143)
                      
                      FThomas        .555     .599     .511     .5212    .4231     1.231    .419   .424   .414     .4222       .3376       1.250       99.89      147.9 (156)
                      
                      FRobinson      .537     .573	 .504	  .5140    .3778     1.360    .389   .403   .376     .3835       .3179       1.206       94.19      147.5 (154)
                      
                      Schmidt	       .527     .540	 .515	  .5253    .3741     1.404    .380   .393   .368     .3753       .3207       1.170       93.61      147.3 (147)
                      
                      ARodriguez     .558     .575     .542     .5528    .4261     1.297    .384   .389   .379     .3865       .3360       1.150       99.90      144.5 (143)
                      
                      Bagwell        .540     .560     .521     .5314    .4096     1.297    .408   .417   .398     .4059       .3305       1.228       94.13      143.5 (149)
                      
                      Greenberg      .605     .681	 .529	  .5395    .3974     1.357    .412   .440   .382     .3896       .3459       1.126       93.46      138.6 (158)
                      
                      Snider         .540     .569     .511     .5212    .3934     1.324    .380   .390   .369     .3763       .3266       1.152       92.88      137.0 (140)
                      
                      JRobinson      .474     .491     .456     .4651    .3953     1.176    .409   .410   .408     .4161       .3314       1.255       93.10      133.2 (132)  
                      
                      Goslin         .500     .484	 .514	  .5242    .4035     1.299    .387   .388   .386     .3937       .3516       1.119       93.88      133.1 (128)
                      
                      Brett          .487     .506     .469     .4783    .3931     1.216    .369   .383   .356     .3631       .3278       1.107       100.0      132.3 (135)
                      
                      LWalker        .565     .637	 .495	  .5049    .4054     1.245    .400   .431   .370     .3774       .3288       1.147       94.11      131.0 (141)
                      
                      RHenderson     .419     .404     .432     .4406    .4090     1.077    .401   .398   .404     .4120       .3322       1.240       98.88      130.2 (127)
                      
                      Simmons        .535     .560     .511     .5212    .3972     1.312    .380   .397   .364     .3712       .3470       1.069       93.70      129.3 (133)
                      
                      Griffey Jr     .538     .573	 .505	  .5151    .4177     1.233    .370   .385   .355     .3621       .3352       1.080       97.70      128.2 (136)
                      
                      Morgan         .427     .434     .420     .4284    .3729     1.148    .392   .405   .380     .3876       .3183       1.217       93.59      127.7 (132)
                      
                      Bench          .476     .486     .466     .4753    .3711     1.280    .342   .348   .335     .3417       .3198       1.068       93.47      125.9 (126)
                      
                      Clemente       .475     .488     .463     .4722    .3828     1.233    .359   .372   .347     .3539       .3181       1.112       92.88      124.9 (130)
                      
                      Yastrzemski    .462     .503     .422     .4304    .3783     1.137    .379   .402   .357     .3641       .3200       1.137       96.34      122.7 (130)
                      
                      Berra          .482     .505     .461     .4702    .3816     1.232    .348   .354   .341     .3478       .3321       1.047       93.57      119.6 (125)
                      
                      Boggs	       .443     .491	 .395     .4029    .4108     .9807    .415   .443   .387     .3947       .3338       1.182       99.94      116.2 (131)
                      
                      Carter         .439     .447     .430     .4389    .3745     1.171    .335   .348   .322     .3284       .3204       1.024       93.73      112.0 (115) 
                      
                      IRodriguez     .464     .482     .447     .4559    .4219     1.080    .334   .345   .322     .3284       .3364       0.976       99.23      104.7 (106)
                      Road Rel OPS+

                      (ADJ REL SA + ADJ REL OBP) - 1) *( LEAGUE OPS+) * 100
                      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-01-2014, 01:37 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                        Almost hate to say it, but it will probably be McGwire & Manny R.


                        Pujols through 2013 has an EXP. OPS+ of 165, matching his actual OPS+. I guess it makes sense since his home parks are basically neutral.
                        Bingo! You nailed it. Ramirez and Mac are back to back, right behind Cobb with a 161.2 and 159.6 respectively. Manny's OPS+ went up seven points, Mac dropped a few.
                        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-01-2014, 01:33 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Bet nobody saw this one comin'

                          Code:
                                                                                                                                                         
                                                  HOME     AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)        .HOME   AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)            .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+)   
                                          .SA       SA       SA     EXP OVR SA   LG SA   ADJ REL SA    OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP    LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+
                          Code:
                          Greenberg      .605     .681	 .529	  .5395    .3974     1.357    .412   .440   .382     .3896       .3459       1.126       93.46      138.6 (158)
                          
                          McGriff        .509     .508     .510     .5202    .4095     1.270    .377   .377   .376     .3835       .3313       1.157       97.00      138.4 (134)
                          
                          Snider         .540     .569     .511     .5212    .3934     1.324    .380   .390   .369     .3763       .3266       1.152       92.88      137.0 (140)

                          Comment


                          • Code:
                            Tris Speaker 1908-1913
                            
                            OBP: 413					SLG: .494
                            Estimated road OBP: .413-4.61%= .394		Estimated road SLG:  .494-7.94%= .455
                            Est. Expected OBP: .4018			Est. Expected SLG:  .4639
                            League OBP: .3168				League SLG: .3280
                            Est. EXP REL OBP: 1.268			        Est. EXP REL SLG: 1.414
                            
                            		          League OPS+: 93.83
                            		          Est EXP OPS+: 158
                            		          Actual OPS+: 167

                            Comment


                            • Morgan takes another saber hit. Over the last 5-6 years, Morgan has really fallen from his early saber peak ("better than Gehrig and Aaron").

                              New defensive metrics actually cost him proabably 7-8 wins because he tended to be rated as a b or b- fielder, but the metrics show that on balance he was below average.
                              He drops if we look at situational splits too because his leveraged splits show that he hit much much worse when there were more runs on the table.
                              And the road splits would indicate a loss of about another 6 wins.

                              The road splits would knock him out of the top 25 in WAR, and the situational splits might cost him some more. I've dropped him from 15ish to around 21-22, but it looks to me like he is in a group of maybe 10 guys battling for the 25-35 slots.

                              Though his 5 year peak was at an all time level, all things considered.

                              Comment


                              • Hornsby would also lose about 7 wins whether it be WAA or WAR. Mantle loses 4 or 5. He's lost a lot sabermetrically over the years from a top 5-8 candidate to lower teens. Though I still think that Yankees centerfielders tended to lose defensive value because of the dimensions of the park messing with official chances.

                                Comment

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