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  • Code:
    Ty Cobb 1905-1913
    
    OBP: .420					SLG: .515
    Estimated road OBP: .420 + .91% = .424		Estimated road SLG: .515 + 1.18%= .521  
    Est. Expected OBP: .4325			Est. Expected SLG: .5315 
    League OBP: .3117				League SLG: .3232
    Est. EXP REL OBP: 1.388			        Est. EXP REL SLG: 1.6440
    
    League OPS+: 94.11
    Est EXP OPS+: 191
    Actual OPS+ 181
    All things considered, this might be a little inflated, but keep in mind Cobb's OPS+ from 1907-1913 was 189. When I put Cobb's est. expected numbers from 1905-1913 into the OPS+ calculator, it resulted in a 190 OPS+. So maybe it isn't that inflated...

    Will do Speaker tomorrow.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
      Code:
      Ty Cobb 1905-1913
      
      OBP: .420					SLG: .515
      Estimated road OBP: .420 + .91% = .424		Estimated road SLG: .515 + 1.18%= .521  
      Est. Expected OBP: .4325			Est. Expected SLG: .5315 
      League OBP: .3117				League SLG: .3232
      Est. EXP REL OBP: 1.388			        Est. EXP REL SLG: 1.6440
      
      League OPS+: 94.11
      Est EXP OPS+: 191
      Actual OPS+ 181
      All things considered, this might be a little inflated, but keep in mind Cobb's OPS+ from 1907-1913 was 189. When I put Cobb's est. expected numbers from 1905-1913 into the OPS+ calculator, it resulted in a 190 OPS+. So maybe it isn't that inflated...

      Will do Speaker tomorrow.
      Thanks Layson. Dang, Brett wasn't too far off, talking about Cobb dominating on the Williams level I guess. Interesting.

      Comment


      • Just did Henderson. He comes in one point behind Walker and a couple points ahead of Griffey and Morgan.

        A couple things.

        Henderson slugged .419. He was a .435 slugger through age 37. By holding on much longer, he lowered his slugging 16 points AND declined through an extremely offensive era. Both of which, kill his relative SA, only 1.077. Still, his away SA was 28 points higher than home, making his expected SA .4406. Everything looks good, until you factor in the boppers in the league (leadoff hitter vs boppers is fair?), league SA of .409 is higher than everyone so far, except Piazza, Griffey, and Boggs.

        His OBP makes a nice comeback with his expected being higher than everyone except who you'd expect. Say that ten times

        By the way. Anyone notice Goslin?

        Something with that guy and Washington. It killed his stats for 8 full seasons; he goes to play in Sportsman for a few years and he puts up huge home numbers. Then he leaves and goes back to Griffith for a year. Then to Detroit, and then back to Washington to finish up. Weird. Without that stint in St Louis, his splits would be even more extreme.

        But think about if this guy had been a Yankee. Perhaps he'd be talked about more than...well, never, like he is now. He put up his second highest career SA (by far).555 in YS, with the first being Sportsman.

        Code:
                                                                                                                                       
                                HOME     AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)        .HOME   AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)            .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+)   
                        .SA       SA       SA     EXP OVR SA   LG SA   ADJ REL SA    OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP    LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+
        Code:
         
        Ruth           .690     .698     .682     .6956    .3809     1.826    .474   .483   .466     .4753       .3418       1.390       94.00      208.3 (206)
        
        TWilliams      .634     .652     .615	  .6273    .3825     1.640    .482   .496   .467     .4763       .3367       1.414       93.57      192.1 (190)   
        
        Gehrig         .632     .620     .644     .6568    .4038     1.626    .447   .436   .458     .4671       .3516       1.328       93.76      183.2 (179)  
        
        BaBonds        .607     .618     .597     .6089    .4040     1.507    .444   .449   .440     .4488       .3281       1.367       93.95      176.0 (182)
        
        Hornsby	       .577     .589	 .565	  .5763    .3847     1.498    .434   .437   .431     .4396       .3358       1.309       93.73      169.3 (175)
        
        JDiMaggio      .579     .546 	 .610     .6222    .3912     1.590    .398   .391   .405     .4131       .3462       1.193       93.46      166.6 (155)
        
        Mantle	       .557     .569	 .545	  .5559    .3774     1.472    .420   .428   .413     .4212       .3229       1.304       93.38      165.8 (172)
        
        Cobb('14-'28)  .512     .503	 .516	  .5263    .3714     1.417    .441   .437   .445     .4539       .3404       1.333       94.06      164.6 (168)
        
        MRamirez       .585     .591     .580    .5916     .4257     1.389    .411   .413   .409     .4171       .3372       1.236       99.26      161.2 (154)
        
        McGwire        .588     .591     .586     .5977    .4129     1.447    .394   .402   .386     .3937       .3347       1.176       98.37      159.6 (163)
        
        Musial	       .559     .582	 .537	  .5477    .3853     1.421    .417   .427   .407     .4151       .3285       1.263       93.13      156.8 (159)
        
        Mays	       .557     .567	 .549	  .5599    .3835     1.459    .384   .387   .382     .3896       .3199       1.217       92.90      155.7 (156)
        
        Aaron	       .555     .557	 .552	  .5630    .3817     1.474    .374   .379   .369     .3763       .3199       1.176       93.56      154.3 (155)
        
        Foxx           .609     .663	 .561	  .5722    .3976     1.439    .429   .453   .405     .4131       .3485       1.185       93.60      152.0 (163)
        
        Piazza	       .545     .515	 .572	  .5834    .4138     1.409    .377   .364   .388     .3957       .3320       1.191       94.50      151.2 (143)
        
        Ott	       .533     .558	 .510	  .5202    .3820     1.361    .415   .422   .408     .4161       .3349       1.242       93.45      149.8 (155)
        
        EMathews       .509     .488	 .529	  .5395    .3872     1.393    .376   .370   .382     .3896       .3196       1.219       92.88      149.7 (143)
        
        FThomas        .555     .599     .511     .5212    .4231     1.231    .419   .424   .414     .4222       .3376       1.250       99.89      147.9 (156)
        
        FRobinson      .537     .573	 .504	  .5140    .3778     1.360    .389   .403   .376     .3835       .3179       1.206       94.19      147.5 (154)
        
        Schmidt	       .527     .540	 .515	  .5253    .3741     1.404    .380   .393   .368     .3753       .3207       1.170       93.61      147.3 (147)
        
        ARodriguez     .558     .575     .542     .5528    .4261     1.297    .384   .389   .379     .3865       .3360       1.150       99.90      144.5 (143)
        
        Bagwell        .540     .560     .521     .5314    .4096     1.297    .408   .417   .398     .4059       .3305       1.228       94.13      143.5 (149)
        
        Greenberg      .605     .681	 .529	  .5395    .3974     1.357    .412   .440   .382     .3896       .3459       1.126       93.46      138.6 (158)
        
        Snider         .540     .569     .511     .5212    .3934     1.324    .380   .390   .369     .3763       .3266       1.152       92.88      137.0 (140)
        
        JRobinson      .474     .491     .456     .4651    .3953     1.176    .409   .410   .408     .4161       .3314       1.255       93.10      133.2 (132)  
        
        Goslin         .500     .484	 .514	  .5242    .4035     1.299    .387   .388   .386     .3937       .3516       1.119       93.88      133.1 (128)
        
        Brett          .487     .506     .469     .4783    .3931     1.216    .369   .383   .356     .3631       .3278       1.107       100.0      132.3 (135)
        
        LWalker        .565     .637	 .495	  .5049    .4054     1.245    .400   .431   .370     .3774       .3288       1.147       94.11      131.0 (141)
        
        RHenderson     .419     .404     .432     .4406    .4090     1.077    .401   .398   .404     .4120       .3322       1.240       98.88      130.2 (127)
        
        Simmons        .535     .560     .511     .5212    .3972     1.312    .380   .397   .364     .3712       .3470       1.069       93.70      129.3 (133)
        
        Griffey Jr     .538     .573	 .505	  .5151    .4177     1.233    .370   .385   .355     .3621       .3352       1.080       97.70      128.2 (136)
        
        Morgan         .427     .434     .420     .4284    .3729     1.148    .392   .405   .380     .3876       .3183       1.217       93.59      127.7 (132)
        
        Bench          .476     .486     .466     .4753    .3711     1.280    .342   .348   .335     .3417       .3198       1.068       93.47      125.9 (126)
        
        Clemente       .475     .488     .463     .4722    .3828     1.233    .359   .372   .347     .3539       .3181       1.112       92.88      124.9 (130)
        
        Yastrzemski    .462     .503     .422     .4304    .3783     1.137    .379   .402   .357     .3641       .3200       1.137       96.34      122.7 (130)
        
        Berra          .482     .505     .461     .4702    .3816     1.232    .348   .354   .341     .3478       .3321       1.047       93.57      119.6 (125)
        
        Boggs	       .443     .491	 .395     .4029    .4108     .9807    .415   .443   .387     .3947       .3338       1.182       99.94      116.2 (131)
        
        Carter         .439     .447     .430     .4389    .3745     1.171    .335   .348   .322     .3284       .3204       1.024       93.73      112.0 (115) 
        
        IRodriguez     .464     .482     .447     .4559    .4219     1.080    .334   .345   .322     .3284       .3364       0.976       99.23      104.7 (106)
        Road Rel OPS+

        (ADJ REL SA + ADJ REL OBP) - 1) *( LEAGUE OPS+) * 100
        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-01-2014, 02:37 PM.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
          Almost hate to say it, but it will probably be McGwire & Manny R.


          Pujols through 2013 has an EXP. OPS+ of 165, matching his actual OPS+. I guess it makes sense since his home parks are basically neutral.
          Bingo! You nailed it. Ramirez and Mac are back to back, right behind Cobb with a 161.2 and 159.6 respectively. Manny's OPS+ went up seven points, Mac dropped a few.
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-01-2014, 02:33 PM.

          Comment


          • Bet nobody saw this one comin'

            Code:
                                                                                                                                           
                                    HOME     AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)        .HOME   AWAY   .(AWAY * 1.02)            .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+)   
                            .SA       SA       SA     EXP OVR SA   LG SA   ADJ REL SA    OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP    LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+
            Code:
            Greenberg      .605     .681	 .529	  .5395    .3974     1.357    .412   .440   .382     .3896       .3459       1.126       93.46      138.6 (158)
            
            McGriff        .509     .508     .510     .5202    .4095     1.270    .377   .377   .376     .3835       .3313       1.157       97.00      138.4 (134)
            
            Snider         .540     .569     .511     .5212    .3934     1.324    .380   .390   .369     .3763       .3266       1.152       92.88      137.0 (140)

            Comment


            • Code:
              Tris Speaker 1908-1913
              
              OBP: 413					SLG: .494
              Estimated road OBP: .413-4.61%= .394		Estimated road SLG:  .494-7.94%= .455
              Est. Expected OBP: .4018			Est. Expected SLG:  .4639
              League OBP: .3168				League SLG: .3280
              Est. EXP REL OBP: 1.268			        Est. EXP REL SLG: 1.414
              
              		          League OPS+: 93.83
              		          Est EXP OPS+: 158
              		          Actual OPS+: 167

              Comment


              • Morgan takes another saber hit. Over the last 5-6 years, Morgan has really fallen from his early saber peak ("better than Gehrig and Aaron").

                New defensive metrics actually cost him proabably 7-8 wins because he tended to be rated as a b or b- fielder, but the metrics show that on balance he was below average.
                He drops if we look at situational splits too because his leveraged splits show that he hit much much worse when there were more runs on the table.
                And the road splits would indicate a loss of about another 6 wins.

                The road splits would knock him out of the top 25 in WAR, and the situational splits might cost him some more. I've dropped him from 15ish to around 21-22, but it looks to me like he is in a group of maybe 10 guys battling for the 25-35 slots.

                Though his 5 year peak was at an all time level, all things considered.

                Comment


                • Hornsby would also lose about 7 wins whether it be WAA or WAR. Mantle loses 4 or 5. He's lost a lot sabermetrically over the years from a top 5-8 candidate to lower teens. Though I still think that Yankees centerfielders tended to lose defensive value because of the dimensions of the park messing with official chances.

                  Comment


                  • And as good as Cobb is, I may have to move Gehrig up to my #3 slot as a hitter.

                    Typically I had gone
                    Ruth
                    Williams
                    Cobb
                    Gehrig
                    Hornsby

                    with Cobb approaching Gehrig in OPS+ with the deadball (just minus 7 points in OPS+ but with a longer career). Gehrig now has a 19 point edge which puts him on another level.

                    I would go with a solid
                    Ruth
                    Williams
                    Gehrig
                    Cobb

                    right now, and Hornsby is now down in the mix, with Pujols probably taking the #5 spot and Dimaggio coming up to contend with Hornsby.

                    Comment


                    • Yeah I'd put DiMaggio barely ahead as a hittet, in part, because Hornsby's NL was pretty weak imo.

                      As overall players, there's gonna be some space between em for sure.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by brett View Post
                        And as good as Cobb is, I may have to move Gehrig up to my #3 slot as a hitter.

                        Typically I had gone
                        Ruth
                        Williams
                        Cobb
                        Gehrig
                        Hornsby

                        with Cobb approaching Gehrig in OPS+ with the deadball (just minus 7 points in OPS+ but with a longer career). Gehrig now has a 19 point edge which puts him on another level.

                        I would go with a solid
                        Ruth
                        Williams
                        Gehrig
                        Cobb

                        right now, and Hornsby is now down in the mix, with Pujols probably taking the #5 spot and Dimaggio coming up to contend with Hornsby.
                        Cobb's deadball dominance is hard to ignore, and I still have him #3, just barely ahead of Gehrig. But looking at how Gehrig compared to Ruth on the road from 1923-1934 (Gehrig's rookie year to Ruth's last year as a Yankee) is almost scary. Ruth of course has the big HR lead, but Gehrig dominates in doubles & triples. Ruth's lead in road OPS was only 28 points during that span.

                        Though I still think that Yankees centerfielders tended to lose defensive value because of the dimensions of the park messing with official chances.
                        Totally agree. In fact, if DiMaggio's bizarre -42 fielding runs in 1947 is replaced by a 0, it gives him over 80 FR which I think would move his WAA & WAR up to more "realistic" levels.
                        Pujols probably taking the #5 spot
                        To me that's a little high for someone who's only played 13+ seasons. On the other hand, I think as a hitter he either belongs just in front of Mays & Aaron because of his incredible first 11 years, or just behind them due to differences in career value. As of now I can't put him ahead of them. Also, where's Musial?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          Yeah I'd put DiMaggio barely ahead as a hittet, in part, because Hornsby's NL was pretty weak imo.

                          As overall players, there's gonna be some space between em for sure.
                          Really? Which way?

                          I am not sure who is the better player, or who should rank higher. I currently have Hornsby a few spots higher.

                          Comment


                          • Well, DiMaggio ahead but I shouldn't have spoke so soon. I plan on doing some personal adjustments.

                            The first thing I'm going to adjust for is the catcher position, since it's the only defensive position that directly impacts offense. I'm thinking about * by 1.02 or 1.03 for that.

                            I'm considering adding 1.01 for platoon for right handers. It would be larger, but for reasons you have mentioned, I think it's fair.

                            You've mentioned Dimaggio's defense a couple times and I couldn't agree more. The gap to gap responsibility with a park like that..it makes a difference. I was fortunate enough to play centerfield for about 15 games down in Arizona, in Tempe Diablo and other ancillary fields in the area. Defending against aluminum bats, with CF over 440, it def changes the way you play. There's more fluctuation on position, depending on game situation; risk/reward to the extreme.

                            I don't consider second base a difficult position. That position has the most margin for error, except for 1B of course, to still get your man. Third base would be next, but why? Only because the ball gets hit toward you harder, on average, than any other position.

                            Anyway, I give DiMaggio the edge in fielding and baserunning, and I do consider the fact that he lost ages 28-30. That is his peak. His prime. Both elevators coming together for a three to four year period. He missed that, and I believe his '46 would have been better if he hadn't.

                            I'm also considering a league adjustment but it's a multi-layered issue.

                            The game was not setup for power. It was setup for batting average. Certain players thrived for the setup. Able to dominate in the accepted BA approach, but also branching out and slugging against the grain. This created a larger gap in that area.

                            So the question is, do we punish those hitters, for others not being able to do what they could do? Or do we give them credit for not having to make a choice and thriving against the grain. They were unique.

                            In later eras, when the game is setup for power, more players up and down the lineup are taking the same approach. Not because they are unique but because it's the easy route; the payday route.

                            And in a league that doesn't care about BA or number of K's, there's nothing to lose. That's a problem.

                            So I'm inclined to give a 1.04 boost to later era players, just trying to decide on the year. In part, because of specialized relief, smaller fields that result in a lower BA, better defense and scouting against them...but mostly because pretenders lower the gap.

                            The primary point, is that these other players aren't forced to make a choice when they should have to. There is no choice to make. And that hurts modern sluggers. Dealing strictly with OPS+ and the ability to separate, I think they have an uphill battle.

                            I'm trying to neutralize the game, to the point where middle infielders and most centerfielders are comfortable setting the table, because that's their role; and really, that's all they're capable of, with larger fields and a larger zone. Pujols doesn't need these dinky parks. Sure, he'd lose a few in larger stadiums, but there'd also be a lot more room for hits to drop and a true gap would be created between the legit and the frauds.

                            Going back to the earlier players, I'm thinking about a .98 adjustment on OPS+ which probably isn't fair. That would include Hornsby and Ruth but I'm still trying to deal with the NL being weaker. For Williams and DiMaggio, probably a .99, for Aaron and Mays' era, 1.00 or no change. Maybe Schmidt and Morgan get a 1.02 and Griffey and Bonds get 1.04? Who knows, maybe I'm over-thinking it, but something should be done. Otherwise these later guys can never compete. There's a reason why they can't and I'm trying to address that.

                            Still thinking about this, but bottom line; it's nice to have a solid, worthwhile base to work from. Thank you for helping me with the road expected.
                            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-02-2014, 08:07 PM.

                            Comment


                            • You know, I think that Dimaggio was a better hitter, and I think CF was probably comparable to second base at that point, and Dimaggio was a better fielder and Hornsby's league was a little weaker.

                              My tendancy to give it to Hornsby had been that he played longer, but probably only about 100 or so more games than Joe would have. Still that's almost 5%. Anyway, consider that straight up OPS+ has Hornsby with a 175 to 155 edge, and in reality they are nearly deadlocked, with Hornsby getting a little more edge coming earlier before the league had fully adjusted. So I'm not sure Dimaggio gets to my top 10 now, but I am probably less sure that Hornsby stays in my top 10. It's no insult from my point of view if Dimaggio is around 11-12. All of the guys above that were as good as it got when they played, but I still am impressed with the guys who could last for near 3000 games.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                                You know, I think that Dimaggio was a better hitter, and I think CF was probably comparable to second base at that point, and Dimaggio was a better fielder and Hornsby's league was a little weaker.

                                My tendancy to give it to Hornsby had been that he played longer, but probably only about 100 or so more games than Joe would have. Still that's almost 5%. Anyway, consider that straight up OPS+ has Hornsby with a 175 to 155 edge, and in reality they are nearly deadlocked, with Hornsby getting a little more edge coming earlier before the league had fully adjusted. So I'm not sure Dimaggio gets to my top 10 now, but I am probably less sure that Hornsby stays in my top 10. It's no insult from my point of view if Dimaggio is around 11-12. All of the guys above that were as good as it got when they played, but I still am impressed with the guys who could last for near 3000 games.
                                I think you view things fairly Brett, that's why I wanted to get your opinion, if I'm going overboard. I don't wanna go all Mad Scientist and screw with a perfectly good potion. So I need your feedback.

                                My personal opinion on your approach, is that you're tied toward favoriting longevity. That's a dangerous game. If we took two guys; one bowled 300 games and one bowled 500 games, wouldn't you really only care about their best 50? Who gives a rip how "long they lasted." Some guy coulda bowled 600 games very good and then 300 more at average level. But his best 50 would still matter more than anything. What were they at their best?

                                Even if you give Hornsby an even defensive viewpoint, his OPS+ is greatly inflated by a weaker league and others not being able to slug like he could. I went through this in my earlier post. It's a tough issue. How much credit to give to a trailblazer with unique ability when the game didn't call for it.

                                What I'm sure of, is that catchers need consideration, righties need a little consideration, and in later eras where everyone is taking the same approach (which hinders separation), hitters need an adjustment. I don't see why Albert shouldn't be in the low to mid 180s. Think about the freak of our era "only" being in the 160's. Something doesn't jive, and I'm onto it. We can keep their raw numbers in perspective, given how the environment is, but when being compared to the league, they are better than they appear imo. The elites, that is.

                                Looking at stats this way, has given me a new perspective. Had never done that before. I'm not in favor of giving modern players a boost because the league is necessarily harder; although there are tough factors that impact everyone. It's giving the true sluggers a boost because it's easier for everyone else and they aren't allowed to shine bright as they could.
                                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-02-2014, 10:15 PM.

                                Comment

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