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  • #16
    Originally posted by brett View Post
    Yes, that is the way to do it.
    K thanks

    When finding league avg, should I be concerned with players having partial seasons, or just find the avg from their first year, to last year, cut and dry?

    Any way to tie RC into this, or is that over-doing things?

    Comment


    • #17
      ----------------------------------------------------
      Code:
                                   (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                      
                      RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
      Code:
      Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
      TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
      Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
      Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
      BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
      Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
      Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
      McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
      MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
      JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
      Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
      MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
      LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
      Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
      Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
      ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
      WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
      Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
      BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
      Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55
      Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40
      Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33
      FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50   
      Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32      
      Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50
      Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
      EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36
      SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53
      RHenderson       .419         .539         .522            1.03
      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-29-2014, 07:59 PM.

      Comment


      • #18
        Brett,

        I know you're spread thin between the WAR talk, but a couple things.

        Ok, we have slugging efficiency. We have the league avg slugging efficiency throughout their careers, which gives us a relative number. We have the avg park factor of their home parks throughout their career.

        Park factor is nice in getting an overall picture of what others did, but next I'd like to hone in on each players performance home/road; what THEY actually did but not sure how. You said on avg, players slug 2% better at home and they produce 2% more total bases/out at home. Should we take their road slugging number and apply a 4% boost, to get an "expected" home number, and then look at the difference between their actual home and the "expected"?

        Aside from that, a couple other questions.

        1. Would applying an across the board boost for righties be legit? Considering righties face a platoon disadvantage in probably 60-70% of their PA, I think so but what do you think. If so, how and when should it be applied?

        2. I know you said you liked battingWAA (Rbat / (RAR/WAR)). Would that be something worth including, or is this best kept as a slugging based stat?

        Comment


        • #19
          I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

          This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

          In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

          I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



          Code:
          Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
          362	        163	                59006
          339	        201	                68139
          334	        145	                48430
          259	        242	                62678
          305	        180	                54900
          289	        221	                63869
          346	        186	                64356
          284	        192	                54528
          282	        155	                43710
          340	        189	                64260
          173	        213	                36849
          328	        196	                64288
          217	        125	                27125
          
                          3858	                 712138
          712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

          League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

          173.51 sOPS+

          His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

          So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
          Last edited by brett; 04-30-2014, 12:07 PM.

          Comment


          • #20
            Inbox full Brett.....

            Ok, I will do that. I only need to do the AL up until like '73 or so, right?

            Anyway, I'm doing Williams right now.

            Have a question.

            He's got a season with 5 PA and a 231 away sOPS. Will that throw off the results? Do we need a min PA? Or because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat, just roll with it? I'd say a minimum ONLY because, with such few PA, a player has less chance to regress toward the mean. What say you?

            Comment


            • #21
              Brett can you check my work on this?

              This just doesn't seem right, for a guy with

              Home - .361/.496/.652 - 106 tOPS+
              Away - .328/.467/.615 --- 94 tOPS+

              Ballgame-sOPS+.jpg

              Is this stat basically just saying, hey....I know he benefitted from his home park, but not as much as others throughout the league did? If that's the case, I need to question if I'm cut-out for this stat stuff. Context and perspective is important, but if we're just gonna completely throw out what THAT PLAYER ACTUALLY DID, and go 100% by league avgs....well Sammy Shortstop or Carl Catcher could be impacting the numbers. I'll hold off over-reacting until I hear about the min PA thing, and if the work is even right :silent:
              Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-30-2014, 07:25 PM.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by brett View Post
                I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

                This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

                In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

                I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



                Code:
                Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
                362	        163	                59006
                339	        201	                68139
                334	        145	                48430
                259	        242	                62678
                305	        180	                54900
                289	        221	                63869
                346	        186	                64356
                284	        192	                54528
                282	        155	                43710
                340	        189	                64260
                173	        213	                36849
                328	        196	                64288
                217	        125	                27125
                
                                3858	                 712138
                712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

                League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

                173.51 sOPS+

                His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

                So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
                Other than issues quantifying catchers, I think one-size-fits all park factors are WARs biggest issues. How hard would it be to at least make park effects batting-side specific? It seems more time-consuming than difficult. Maybe there is an aspect i am not considering.
                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                  Other than issues quantifying catchers, I think one-size-fits all park factors are WARs biggest issues. How hard would it be to at least make park effects batting-side specific? It seems more time-consuming than difficult. Maybe there is an aspect i am not considering.
                  I'm willing to put in the work, just need to know what direction to go.

                  I like the direction we were going with SAeff (post#26) but seems like it needs one more step.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                    I'm willing to put in the work, just need to know what direction to go.

                    I like the direction we were going with SAeff (post#26) but seems like it needs one more step.
                    I'd be lying if I said I even know where to start. So many variables.
                    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      Brett can you check my work on this?

                      This just doesn't seem right, for a guy with

                      Home - .361/.496/.652 - 106 tOPS+
                      Away - .328/.467/.615 --- 94 tOPS+

                      [ATTACH]138302[/ATTACH]

                      Is this stat basically just saying, hey....I know he benefitted from his home park, but not as much as others throughout the league did? If that's the case, I need to question if I'm cut-out for this stat stuff. Context and perspective is important, but if we're just gonna completely throw out what THAT PLAYER ACTUALLY DID, and go 100% by league avgs....well Sammy Shortstop or Carl Catcher could be impacting the numbers. I'll hold off over-reacting until I hear about the min PA thing, and if the work is even right :silent:

                      Well we know that Ted Williams was hurt in relative production by his home park. He played in a park that favored right handed hitters. That is the point of relative splits. I don't see the problem. Ted Williams road numbers WERE 192 OPS+ relative to what everyone else did on the road. If Williams WAS 192 relative to the road, and 190 overall, he has to be a little under 190 at home. This is not about being hurt or helped in stats, its about being hurt or helped in relative stats, and therefore in "value".
                      Last edited by brett; 04-30-2014, 08:28 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                        Inbox full Brett.....

                        Ok, I will do that. I only need to do the AL up until like '73 or so, right?

                        Anyway, I'm doing Williams right now.

                        Have a question.

                        He's got a season with 5 PA and a 231 away sOPS. Will that throw off the results? Do we need a min PA? Or because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat, just roll with it? I'd say a minimum ONLY because, with such few PA, a player has less chance to regress toward the mean. What say you?
                        The low PA seasons will not throw things off, because they are only getting weighted by the number of PAs.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by brett View Post
                          Well we know that Ted Williams was hurt in relative production by his home park. He played in a park that favored right handed hitters. That is the point of relative splits. I don't see the problem. Ted Williams road numbers WERE 192 OPS+ relative to what everyone else did on the road. If Williams WAS 192 relative to the road, and 190 overall, he has to be a little under 190 at home. This is not about being hurt or helped in stats, its about being hurt or helped in relative stats, and therefore in "value".
                          Ok thats a good explanation.

                          would you say that if we were able to look at handedness, the results would more resemble his Home Road / difference?

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            another thing I was going to say is that Williams was therefore hurt in WAR by playing in a high offensive park that favored right handed hitters (compared to usual splits). Because of his high offensive park, he gets fewer "runs" for each thing he did with the bat. It may sound odd, because I think they should have given him his actual runs produced, and converted them into fewer "wins" because it took more runs to win in Boston, but the way WAR does it, within a season, all players get their "runs" adjusted to a standard park of the season. From one season to another, the conversion of runs to wins is different depending on the run environment. High run environment might be 10.5 runs per win, low might be 9.5.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                              Ok thats a good explanation.

                              would you say that if we were able to look at handedness, the results would more resemble his Home Road / difference?

                              Do you mean Williams versus left and right handed pitchers, or relative to left handed batters?

                              I think Williams would have a much lower OPS+ relative to left handed pitchers than the league, but good for a lefty against lefties, probably similar to his overall rate.

                              Compared to all left handed hitters, Williams would probably be lower than 190, but its hard to tell. The hitting edge to lefties basically raises the number of left handed hitters up to a proportion where they don't hit better than righties at the same position. There are about 10% lefties in the population but something like 30% in lineups, so the lefty edge pushes the amount of lefties up, but if we compared Williams to the top 1/3 of lefties (1/10th of the league and the population rate) he'd be lower.

                              However, in sports in GENERAL, left handers are more likely to be elite athletes even when handedness is not a factor in the sport. About half of all elite athletes across all sports are left handed. Even things like sprinting.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by brett View Post
                                another thing I was going to say is that Williams was therefore hurt in WAR by playing in a high offensive park that favored right handed hitters (compared to usual splits). Because of his high offensive park, he gets fewer "runs" for each thing he did with the bat. It may sound odd, because I think they should have given him his actual runs produced, and converted them into fewer "wins" because it took more runs to win in Boston, but the way WAR does it, within a season, all players get their "runs" adjusted to a standard park of the season. From one season to another, the conversion of runs to wins is different depending on the run environment. High run environment might be 10.5 runs per win, low might be 9.5.
                                Does that same issue exist in WAA?

                                Comment

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