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**Sultan_1895-1948**View Postfor example, if you look at the WAR data on BBRef, you see that Maddux has a 3.56 RA9 (total runs allowed per 9 innings, both earned and unearned). His opposition averaged 4.5 runs per game in those seasons. That would make his ERA+ 4.5/3.56 x 100 or 126. Then they show that he also had 0.11 saved by his defenses. That would boost his ERA to 3.67 versus 4.5 which would be a 123 ERA+. If we further adjust that by the road to overall ratio that you calculated we get a 120 effective ERA+ for Maddux.

Mike Mussina meanwhile Allowed a 3.98, facied opponents who averaged 4.94 (124 RA+) had -8 defensive support which would push him to 4.94/3.90 or 127, and his road predicted ERA+ is 3.63 compared to his actual of 3.68 which would make him effectively 129 BUT we don't know if he faced the same offensive opposition on the road, and defensive support may also be better at home.

But for starters yea, Road ERA/1.04 times the league ERA.

Then there is the question of whether pitchers can pitch to their defensive strengths.

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