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  • What info can I gather to make it quicker for you?

    Interesting, you mention Nolan. I immediately think of the high leg kick, windup or stretch, and running on him came to mind.

    Thought I'd look up some right handers numbers; runners caught stealing %.

    More than the actual % of runners caught stealing, the attempts kinda stand out.

    Can you find any other RH above 500 attempted steals of second?

    CS%.jpg
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-07-2014, 11:29 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

    Comment


    • There are two paths to getting a pitcher's road predicted OPS+.

      In the first method, you just need each season

      Road IP Road s-OPS+


      So let's start with that, just make two columns. In column 3 you multiply them together for the season.

      Comment


      • Ok, here's step one


        Lefty.jpg
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
          Ok, here's step one


          [ATTACH]139473[/ATTACH]
          Great, just take the 153053.2 divided by 1956.7 to get 78.22. Then for predicted you divide it by 1.04.

          I'll mention that there is no good database of career OPS+ allowed (not just road split) and it would be a great service, very interesting for me to see, if you wanted to do career OPS+ allowed first, or as well. It would simply be done the same way, taking seasonal IP times seasonal OPS+ allowed, getting column 3, and then dividing it by the column 1 total. I think people would really love to peruse just the OPS+ allowed because its not something that people know for these pitchers, like they do for ERA+.

          Comment


          • Yeah, cause under the career splits they don't have sOPS, just tOPS. So we'd have to go year by year for career OPS allowed.
            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

            Comment


            • Originally posted by brett View Post
              Great, just take the 153053.2 divided by 1956.7 to get 78.22. Then for predicted you divide it by 1.04.

              I'll mention that there is no good database of career OPS+ allowed (not just road split) and it would be a great service, very interesting for me to see, if you wanted to do career OPS+ allowed first, or as well. It would simply be done the same way, taking seasonal IP times seasonal OPS+ allowed, getting column 3, and then dividing it by the column 1 total. I think people would really love to peruse just the OPS+ allowed because its not something that people know for these pitchers, like they do for ERA+.
              Code:
              				
              		H IP   H sOPS	
              				
              	1925	100.1	115	11511.5
              	1926	131.0	77	10087
              	1927	121.1	73	8840.3
              	1928	148.0	63	9324
              	1929	124.1	79	9803.9
              	1930	163.0	68	11084
              	1931	139.1	75	10432.5
              	1932	172.0	86	14792
              	1933	166.0	103	17098
              	1934	52.2	118	6159.6
              	1935	136.1	83	11296.3
              	1936	130.1	71	9237.1
              	1937	138.0	96	13248
              	1938	77.0	92	7084	
              	1939	78.0	99	7722	
              	1940	46.0	161	7406	
              	1941	55.1	149	8209.9	
              					
              	TOTAL	1976.9	1608	173336.1	
              					
              	AVG	116.28	94.58	10196.24
              Ok here's home.

              So for home we have 84.30 OPS+
              And for away we have 75.21 OPS+

              79.75 overall OPS+
              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

              Comment


              • Had already moved him down a little, considering how he was able to coast and his home park. This just re-confirms the latter.

                Walter Johnson

                88.25 overall OPS+ against.

                This is a pretty big deal. Does this mean, outside of Griffith, batters hit nearly 10% better than average? And in Griffith, they hit about 33% below average?

                WalterOPS.jpg

                By the way, 1914 and 1915 sOPS look at little weird. Why such a low number? Is that a misprint?
                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-08-2014, 06:04 PM.
                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                  Had already moved him down a little, considering how he was able to coast and his home park. This just re-confirms the latter.

                  Walter Johnson

                  88.25 overall OPS+ against.

                  This is a pretty big deal. Does this mean, outside of Griffith, batters hit nearly 10% better than average? And in Griffith, they hit about 33% below average?

                  [ATTACH]139477[/ATTACH]

                  By the way, 1914 and 1915 sOPS look at little weird. Why such a low number? Is that a misprint?
                  1) No its plausible to have a 13 sOPS+. Let me check. The league had .252/.255 on base and slugging against him. The league went .335/.342 given that home park. That would put him at about 50 though so it is an error probably based on incomplete league numbers for the year.

                  I'll check 1916. The league went .330/.334 not counting pitchers given his park. He allowed .270/.268 which would put him at about 62, but the split OPS+ allowed includes pitchers. So that looks right. The earliest years must lack some league data or it is a misprint in those first couple.

                  2) Your "away" IP column doens't add up. It adds up to a little more than 1800 IP. May want to check if your spreadsheet is using the whole range. That would make him virtually the same at home and on the road.

                  3) No it doesn't have anything to do with whether his park was higher in offense. The splits adjust for ballpark offense. A player would only have extreme splits if his home park helped him or hurt him MORE than it helped other pitchers.

                  4) I have checked this data http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...s-road-scoring
                  It shows me that while the 1.04 factor to change road OPS+ to total predicted OPS+ is correct, however on your ERA+ splits this data suggests that a 1.03 factor is right on. OPS+ home road splits are consistently around 104/96, but runs scoring splits are about 103/97. Use 1.03 to convert ERA+s from road to total predicted, but 1.04 for OPS+, and 1.02 for slugging, batting and on base percentage.

                  Comment


                  • There is clearly a flaw with Johnson's s-OPS+. In wins for 1915 he is shown as 23, and he's 16 in losses, but he allowed .195/.249/.232 in wins and .260/.309/.302 in losses.

                    Comment


                    • Oh man I was way off on that. Thanks.

                      Here's the correct one.

                      WalterOPS.jpg

                      So could we take that road number and apply their Adjusted Relative ERA+?


                      ADJ-rel-ERA+.jpg
                      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-09-2014, 05:38 PM.
                      "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                      ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                        Oh man I was way off on that. Thanks.

                        Here's the correct one.

                        [ATTACH]139525[/ATTACH]

                        So could we take that road number and apply their Adjusted Relative ERA+?


                        [ATTACH]139527[/ATTACH]
                        So again, their road ERA it looks like from looking at the data that you should divide it by 1.03 not 1.04. I looked through many seasons to estimate home road splits for ERA and it is virtually right on 1.03. For OPS+ you take the road OPS+ divided by 1.04. I can look at more seasons but from what I've seen, those numbers are right to a couple thousandths.

                        Comment


                        • Ok, I'll change 'em.

                          By the way, did you see who fell right between Pete and Walter? Crazy huh.
                          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                            Ok, I'll change 'em.

                            By the way, did you see who fell right between Pete and Walter? Crazy huh.

                            Interesting. What made you think to run him. Still just 1880 innings.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by brett View Post
                              Interesting. What made you think to run him. Still just 1880 innings.
                              Was just thinkin about cookie cutter stadiums of the 80's and 90's. Those Reds beat my beloved steroid riddled A's.

                              That carpet was brutal for fielders and pitchers. Ball scooted like on concrete. Actually, I remember Will Clark or someone talkin about how short they cut Jack Murphy back in the day, and it behaved like an artificial field. To aid Gwynn I think he said.

                              You make a good point about IP though. Either there needs to be minimum to make the list, or ERA needs to be weighted by IP.

                              Is there an average expected level of ERA decline after a certain number of IP?
                              Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-09-2014, 08:58 PM.
                              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                              Comment


                              • Sultan,

                                That is crazy about Jose Rijo! I remember him as a very fine pitcher with the Reds, especially in that unfortunate sweep in 1990 (I loved those over-sized A's), but I had no idea he pitched so well for that long. From 1988-1994 he had one helluva run, though most of that does coincide with the huge drop in offense from 1988-1993 or thereabouts. Good catch on Rijo. I do remember when he made that comeback in 2001 at age 36, I had no idea he was so young when he had that awesome 1986 season in Oakland (he was 21 that year). Rijo's comeback in '01 was my first summer back in the States after being stationed overseas for the previous 4 baseball seasons.
                                "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

                                Comment

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