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  • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Hey Bo, not using park factors. Just home/road splits.

    Its using ERA so teams making errors behind a pitcher shouldn't be an issue.

    What are your ideas on how to factor in defense? That total zone thing doesn't go back very many years, right?
    FRAA is better than ignoring defensive support. TZ is better than FRAA. DNR is better than TZ. PCA is somewhere in there, but certainly better than nothing.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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    • Originally posted by brett View Post
      Its true. Defensive issues are probably bigger than park. Also by the way, we may never have an ERA+ that actually looks at each batter that the pitcher faced. Only recently has WAR been able to look at the general offensive level of specific opponents (teams) that the pitcher faced.

      Matt, what do you think about Ryan being basically a 102 or 103 ERA+ on the road? That is relative to everyone on the road.
      Haven't given it much thought. Maybe the fact that he specialized in no-contact pitching like none before while playing in mostly exclusively pitchers parks is making some crazy things happen.
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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      • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
        Haven't given it much thought. Maybe the fact that he specialized in no-contact pitching like none before while playing in mostly exclusively pitchers parks is making some crazy things happen.
        Do you think he got more calls at home and since he K'd and walked a lot this had a bigger impact?

        For the record, we are taking a players road numbers, adjusting them up by a coefficient that predicts total numbers, and then comparing that directly to league averages.

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        • There are a few rare BF that are not PAs. I think a sac bunt is not a PA because/therefore it does not affect on base percentage, but sac flyes do.

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          • Originally posted by brett View Post
            Do you think he got more calls at home and since he K'd and walked a lot this had a bigger impact?

            For the record, we are taking a players road numbers, adjusting them up by a coefficient that predicts total numbers, and then comparing that directly to league averages.
            Yeah, we were talking about ERA+, so I was thinking about what factors could be causing a shift beween home and road ERA (RA) +. Not exactly the same thing, of course.
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

            Comment


            • Originally posted by brett View Post
              Do you think he got more calls at home and since he K'd and walked a lot this had a bigger impact?
              Calls aren't based on home/away in baseball. It could vary between different home plate umps because of their own version of zone, but no home/away bias like in basketball and foul calls.

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              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                There are a few rare BF that are not PAs. I think a sac bunt is not a PA because/therefore it does not affect on base percentage, but sac flyes do.
                So using BF is proper?

                What do you think of using a K or BB per BF relative stat? Did you see Pedro's? My lord that dude was studly.

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                • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                  So using BF is proper?

                  What do you think of using a K or BB per BF relative stat? Did you see Pedro's? My lord that dude was studly.
                  Yea but as you have pointed out it is also partly approach. He threw 7 innings a game with 4 days rest. Ryan threw 8+ on 3 days rest and faced the same batters 3+ times. And also regarding approach, when Ryan played, or others, there was still a strong approach to try to put the ball in play and not K, while by Pedro's time more hitters were swinging big, and hitting big or missing. Relative Ks per 9 innings would be interesting though.

                  BF is fine. I mean PAs and BF are going to be within about 1% of each other anyway.

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                  • Originally posted by brett View Post
                    Yea but as you have pointed out it is also partly approach. He threw 7 innings a game with 4 days rest. Ryan threw 8+ on 3 days rest and faced the same batters 3+ times. And also regarding approach, when Ryan played, or others, there was still a strong approach to try to put the ball in play and not K, while by Pedro's time more hitters were swinging big, and hitting big or missing. Relative Ks per 9 innings would be interesting though.

                    BF is fine. I mean PAs and BF are going to be within about 1% of each other anyway.
                    I have no bias. Simply looking at the numbers. I'm with you on the hitters approach difference. I think you know me better than that. Of course that needs to be accounted, for, which is why I suggested looking at league PA/K and league PA/BB for relative. Just wanna know whether to look at BF or PA. This isn't about being a "fan" of either, because I'm a fan of both. Just wanna get accurate data. Lookie there, I'm converted; sorta

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                    • Well apparently a PA is a BF, I think. It looks like the problem was that in interleague play, a LEAGUE may face more pitcher or less than its batters bat because some come PAs come from the other league.

                      So use BF.

                      Although there is some category, I think sac bunts that still may count differently. Actually I think a sac bunt is a PA, but is not counted in the numerator or denominator for OB%.
                      Last edited by brett; 06-12-2014, 05:07 AM.

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                      • Sultan, another question for you about the pitchers you have listed in post #1.

                        For Sandy Koufax, is that combined Brooklyn and LA for his numbers you ran, or just his stellar years in LA? I am guessing it is both, because his numbers seem lower than I expected, though I understand the huge benefits he was afforded pitching in Los Angeles during the 1960s!
                        "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

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                        • I'll check in on this thread twice a day just to see road predicted OPS+ and road predicted ERA+ for pitchers as well as any OPS+ against scores for pitchers. Those 3 stats are gems for me.

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                          • Originally posted by Herr28 View Post
                            Sultan, another question for you about the pitchers you have listed in post #1.

                            For Sandy Koufax, is that combined Brooklyn and LA for his numbers you ran, or just his stellar years in LA? I am guessing it is both, because his numbers seem lower than I expected, though I understand the huge benefits he was afforded pitching in Los Angeles during the 1960s!
                            Yes, it's always their entire career. Only time that a season(s) might be excluded, is when doing five or ten best of something, because a mininum for PA or IP needs to be applied.

                            Also, when looking at the league avg, if a guy played in both leagues during a season, the AL and NL numbers are averaged.

                            By the way, your boy Dizzy is interesting.

                            The year he went to Wrigley in '38, the dimensions changed drastically to favor hitters in the gaps and center.

                            Wrigley'28-'38.gif

                            Yet, in 1938 he went 5-1 at home with a 1.01 ERA in 53.2 innings and 203 batters faced. Seven home starts, three CG (one SHO). What's more, of the 38 hits he allowed, just four of them were for extra bases (3 doubles, 1 triple)....yup...no dingers.

                            Looking at 1939 he faced 344 batters in 86.1 IP with a 2.40 ERA. Had 10 home starts, seven CG (three SHO).

                            Just those two years at home, 1.86 ERA in 140 IP, two HR allowed in Wrigley with 547 batters faced.

                            The ERA split will show he was "helped" by Wrigley, and perhaps he was a bit, with the RF line going out 32 feet. But the other dimension changes are crazy.
                            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 06-12-2014, 05:52 PM.

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                            • Wowsers....

                              Code:
                                                             ..HOME      .AWAY    ..(AWAY/1.03)         ....(LG ERA / EXP ERA)        
                                                    ..ERA       ERA       .ERA     EXP OVR ERA   LG ERA   ADJ REL ERA+    RAW ERA+
                              Code:
                              Alexander ('14-'30)   2.52      2.29      2.80      2.718      3.591     132.1        138+
                              
                              Rijo                  3.24      3.36      3.11      3.019      3.970     131.5        121+
                              
                              Stieb                 3.44      3.60      3.28      3.184      4.098     128.7        122+
                              
                              WJohnson  ('14-'27)   2.47      2.12      2.87      2.786      3.570     128.1        137+

                              Comment


                              • I almost have the database for AL and NL OPS complete. Look at the pitching chart Brett. Started to do Grove but got confused. I did road OPS allowed divided by 1.03 again. Is that right? Something seems off.

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