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Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

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  • #16
    My "negative outs" approach regarding K and G[H]IDP numbers for each batter, relative to all his PA, AB and total outs, will not be so refined as to pitcher-batter handedness, fly ball/ground ball propensities or type of batted ball that was converted into a double play or triple play.

    That, on its face, may at first seem an open invitations to futility; but, as I see it, the bottom line will depend on a correlation among all bases collected on the + side of the ledger and all escalated out negative impacts on the run scoring machinery regardless of the luck or breaks involved in play execution, or the positive attributes of a K that makes the pitcher work harder.

    I am approaching this for the period 1901 - present. If I find anything worth while, I'll post it eventually. If not, I'll post that ... as a public confession of sorts ... and as a public safety announcement so others can avoid the quicksand pit I eagerly ran into.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by leewileyfan View Post
      My "negative outs" approach regarding K and G[H]IDP numbers for each batter, relative to all his PA, AB and total outs, will not be so refined as to pitcher-batter handedness, fly ball/ground ball propensities or type of batted ball that was converted into a double play or triple play.

      That, on its face, may at first seem an open invitations to futility; but, as I see it, the bottom line will depend on a correlation among all bases collected on the + side of the ledger and all escalated out negative impacts on the run scoring machinery regardless of the luck or breaks involved in play execution, or the positive attributes of a K that makes the pitcher work harder.

      I am approaching this for the period 1901 - present. If I find anything worth while, I'll post it eventually. If not, I'll post that ... as a public confession of sorts ... and as a public safety announcement so others can avoid the quicksand pit I eagerly ran into.
      Sounds good. I love that last line!

      Before I enter EL REINO DE ARENAS MOVEDIZAS, I'm waiting to hear back on whether my last post was done properly, and if it's something worth replacing tOPS+ in my chart.
      "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

      ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

      Comment


      • #18
        Who was a more efficient slugger between Ken Griffey Jr and Sam Crawford?

        Griffey slugged 86 points higher, hit 533 more homers and 66 more doubles, but Crawford had 271 more triples.

        Raw slugging efficiency (TB/OUTS) shows junior to be ahead .712 to .628.

        Interestingly enough, when you factor in Junior's league slugged .424 and Crawford's .340, their difference is exactly the same, .288 above league.

        Even a step further, dividing each ones 28.8 by their individual AB totals and multiplying by 550, Crawford eeks out the victory 1.65 to 1.61.

        Doing a couple other guys, Piazza and Mantle are dead even at 2.56. Never would have expected that. Especially from a catcher whose league slugged .420 and Mantle's slugged just .387. Piazza was a flat out stud!
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • #19
          -----------------------------------
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 07-21-2014, 05:48 PM.
          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

          Comment


          • #20
            Hey Ubi, how do you post an Excel file, like you did in Historic Game Logs thread?

            Nevermind, think I just figured it out. Has to be as attachment...our old friend, the paperclip.

            So here are AL/NL league SAeff numbers through '46, TB/PUT OUTS. This will go a long ways towards making a better relative SAeff stat. If there's any volunteers to take the file and do a couple decades, that would be awesome..if not, I'll finish it.

            Updated through 1977.
            Attached Files
            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-22-2014, 03:34 PM.
            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

            Comment


            • #21
              Ok, complete through 2013.

              Is there any way to account for the DH not being in the NL....like a certain % boost to the NL number? Or we just leave it as is?
              Attached Files
              Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-24-2014, 05:59 PM.
              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                Ok, complete through 2013.

                Is there any way to account for the DH not being in the NL....like a certain % boost to the NL number? Or we just leave it as is?
                You can try. Since OPS+ is about 6% lower with pitchers you could multiply the NL rates by 1.06, but DH's are something like 16% above average, spread through the lineup that would also be another 2% there. So 1.08. That's a first impression. In fact it raises an issue that even though pitchers are removed in finding OPS+, AL hitters are still compared to a lineup with a DH added.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by brett View Post
                  You can try. Since OPS+ is about 6% lower with pitchers you could multiply the NL rates by 1.06, but DH's are something like 16% above average, spread through the lineup that would also be another 2% there. So 1.08. That's a first impression. In fact it raises an issue that even though pitchers are removed in finding OPS+, AL hitters are still compared to a lineup with a DH added.
                  So to create an even playing field, the goal is to statistically figure out a way to remove the pitcher and supplant a hypothetical DH into the NL? That would be easier and more accurate than doing the reverse; that is, to attempt to remove the DH from the AL, correct? Seems the latter would create sooo many more issues.

                  From 1994 to 2007, the AL AVERAGED .557 SAeff....the NL had NO SINGLE SEASON that high in the same span.

                  On a side note...for SAeff.....

                  Do we just divide the players' total by their league AVG total to get relative?
                  Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-24-2014, 07:24 PM.
                  "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                  ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

                    Do we just divide the players' total by their league AVG total to get relative?
                    Yes, that is the way to do it.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by brett View Post
                      Yes, that is the way to do it.
                      K thanks

                      When finding league avg, should I be concerned with players having partial seasons, or just find the avg from their first year, to last year, cut and dry?

                      Any way to tie RC into this, or is that over-doing things?
                      "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                      ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        ----------------------------------------------------
                        Code:
                                                     (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                                        
                                        RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
                        Code:
                        Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
                        TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
                        Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
                        Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
                        BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
                        Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
                        Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
                        McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
                        MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
                        JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
                        Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
                        MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
                        LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
                        Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
                        Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
                        ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
                        WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
                        Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
                        BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
                        Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55
                        Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40
                        Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33
                        FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50   
                        Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32      
                        Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50
                        Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
                        EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36
                        SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53
                        RHenderson       .419         .539         .522            1.03
                        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-29-2014, 06:59 PM.
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Brett,

                          I know you're spread thin between the WAR talk, but a couple things.

                          Ok, we have slugging efficiency. We have the league avg slugging efficiency throughout their careers, which gives us a relative number. We have the avg park factor of their home parks throughout their career.

                          Park factor is nice in getting an overall picture of what others did, but next I'd like to hone in on each players performance home/road; what THEY actually did but not sure how. You said on avg, players slug 2% better at home and they produce 2% more total bases/out at home. Should we take their road slugging number and apply a 4% boost, to get an "expected" home number, and then look at the difference between their actual home and the "expected"?

                          Aside from that, a couple other questions.

                          1. Would applying an across the board boost for righties be legit? Considering righties face a platoon disadvantage in probably 60-70% of their PA, I think so but what do you think. If so, how and when should it be applied?

                          2. I know you said you liked battingWAA (Rbat / (RAR/WAR)). Would that be something worth including, or is this best kept as a slugging based stat?
                          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

                            This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

                            In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

                            I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



                            Code:
                            Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
                            362	        163	                59006
                            339	        201	                68139
                            334	        145	                48430
                            259	        242	                62678
                            305	        180	                54900
                            289	        221	                63869
                            346	        186	                64356
                            284	        192	                54528
                            282	        155	                43710
                            340	        189	                64260
                            173	        213	                36849
                            328	        196	                64288
                            217	        125	                27125
                            
                                            3858	                 712138
                            712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

                            League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

                            173.51 sOPS+

                            His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

                            So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
                            Last edited by brett; 04-30-2014, 11:07 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Inbox full Brett.....

                              Ok, I will do that. I only need to do the AL up until like '73 or so, right?

                              Anyway, I'm doing Williams right now.

                              Have a question.

                              He's got a season with 5 PA and a 231 away sOPS. Will that throw off the results? Do we need a min PA? Or because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat, just roll with it? I'd say a minimum ONLY because, with such few PA, a player has less chance to regress toward the mean. What say you?
                              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Brett can you check my work on this?

                                This just doesn't seem right, for a guy with

                                Home - .361/.496/.652 - 106 tOPS+
                                Away - .328/.467/.615 --- 94 tOPS+

                                Ballgame-sOPS+.jpg

                                Is this stat basically just saying, hey....I know he benefitted from his home park, but not as much as others throughout the league did? If that's the case, I need to question if I'm cut-out for this stat stuff. Context and perspective is important, but if we're just gonna completely throw out what THAT PLAYER ACTUALLY DID, and go 100% by league avgs....well Sammy Shortstop or Carl Catcher could be impacting the numbers. I'll hold off over-reacting until I hear about the min PA thing, and if the work is even right
                                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-30-2014, 06:25 PM.
                                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                                Comment

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