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  • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Some interesting shifts so far, sorted by OPS+++
    I think when you get done with all this Randy, the final stat should be called "projected hitting value" or some other name for an all encompassing stat that this is becoming.

    As for the rather large penalties and rewards for longevity or lack thereof- it seems a little too extreme, but that's just one person's opinion.
    And what about a LQ adjustment? Should that be added/subtracted from the equation? A pre 1947 penalty? A post 1946 reward?
    Last edited by layson27; 07-19-2014, 04:26 PM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
      I think when you get done with all this Randy, the final stat should be called "projected hitting value" or some other name for an all encompassing stat that this is becoming.

      As for the rather large penalties and rewards for longevity or lack thereof- it seems a little too extreme, but that's just one person's opinion.
      And what about a LQ adjustment? Should that be added/subtracted from the equation? A pre 1947 penalty? A post 1946 reward?
      I trust Brett's opinion but have to say, I thought it was too harsh as well. I'm okay with the over 10k crowd getting their rightful bonus, but it seems like a huge hit even to be within 1500 PA of 10k. For guys below 10k, I would use the average between the 10k result, and OPS++.

      That would mean, instead of DiMaggio dropping from 163.7 to 148.8, he would be at 156.2. It's still about an 8 point hit.

      Personally, I'm going to apply my own platoon, LQ, and if needed, catcher adjustment. I'm thinking 1.02 for each is fair but waiting to hear back.

      That would just be used subjectively at each viewers discretion. Other than those personal boosts, the only thing we're missing, is a hitter having to face his own pitching staff on the road. That one seems impossible.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
        I trust Brett's opinion but have to say, I thought it was too harsh as well. I'm okay with the over 10k crowd getting their rightful bonus, but it seems like a huge hit even to be within 1500 PA of 10k. For guys below 10k, I would use the average between the 10k result, and OPS++.

        That would mean, instead of DiMaggio dropping from 163.7 to 148.8, he would be at 156.2. It's still about an 8 point hit.

        Personally, I'm going to apply my own platoon, LQ, and if needed, catcher adjustment. I'm thinking 1.02 for each is fair but waiting to hear back.

        That would just be used subjectively at each viewers discretion. Other than those personal boosts, the only thing we're missing, is a hitter having to face his own pitching staff on the road. That one seems impossible.
        No you can figure out the effect of facing his pitching staff 1/8 of the time very easily.

        You have to take the average of his team's ERA+ scores for his seasons. Say it averages out to 116. Then subtract 100 to get 16. Divide 16 by 8 to get 2 which means it would hurt him 2% so divide his OPS+ by 1.02.

        But the problem with Dimaggio is not that he gets hurt too much for longevity. If he had really played out a normal career and ended up with only 7500 or so PAs it would be a sign of a true lack of adaptability. No the problem is just the war years. If you give him the average of the season before and after in terms of PAs, then he would have had 9543 PAs and his 163.7 drops to 161. If you are going to use the effect on Dimaggio to decide to take the average effect then you, in my view are doing a disservice because we already know that Dimaggio's longevity in terms of games played was hurt by factors beyond any control.

        Comment


        • For the ERA thing, did you mean to say multiply by .98 for someone who would take a 2% hit?

          That would be time consuming. Case by case but worth it if it matters. Can"t fit another column. Maybe we could condense relative SA and relative OBP or something.

          What was the overall point you were making with DiMag?
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 07-19-2014, 06:53 PM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            For the ERA thing, did you mean to say multiply by .98 for someone who would take a 2% hit?

            That would be time consuming. Case by case but worth it if it matters. Can"t fit another column. Maybe we could condense relative SA and relative OBP or something.

            What was the overall point you were making with DiMag?
            That when we adjust for playing time he is going to always take a hit because he lost war time. I think we should either score him a 148 and realize that it costs him because he lost playing time, or estimate his playing time for the lost years and project him at a 160.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
              For the ERA thing, did you mean to say multiply by .98 for someone who would take a 2% hit?

              That would be time consuming. Case by case but worth it if it matters. Can"t fit another column. Maybe we could condense relative SA and relative OBP or something.

              What was the overall point you were making with DiMag?
              Multiply by .98 or divide by 1.02. Its basically the same.

              Comment


              • Although this is harsh when weighting by 10k PA in the last column, I think it's good. Those who value longevity over pure greatness can get an idea, still keeping in mind the guys with war year issues.

                Would it be helpful to put assumed 600 PA for missed years in parenthesis? For guys with partial years like Ballgame, I would simply subtract 600 from known PA for those years.

                I know the main guys but perhaps there are some sleepers out there. Anyone have a full list of all the guys who missed time for service?

                Each person can consider for themselves injury, manager decisions, DHing, or pitching years that could have been hitting years. When ranking, these things, along with being a righty, facing more specialized relief in later eras, not being able to standout due to conditions, or being a catcher...... can be considered. Some things still remain subjective, as they should.

                We can't take ALL the fun out of it!

                For instance I believe Gehrig had the tools to be an outfielder but he instead honed his skills at first and became very respectable. In terms of his illness....it was not baseball related, and there is evidence that he started showing signs toward the end of 1937. His '38 and '39 would be near '37 before beginning to decline in 1940, and those decline numbers would resemble his developmental age 23 season. More than reasonable. His PA weighted OPS+ would be much higher if given the chance to play out healthy. Not taking him past ballgame, but certainly up with a roided Barry. Everyone has their own opinion though.

                Code:
                                        HOME     AWAY   (AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)       HOME   AWAY   ..(AWAY * 1.02)           .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+) (HOME AS ROAD NORMALIZED) (WEIGHTED FOR PLAYING TIME)
                                .SA       SA       SA    EXP OVR SA  LG SA    ADJ REL SA   OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP   LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+      ROAD REL OPS++          ROAD REL OPS+++
                Code:
                Ruth           .690     .698     .682     .6956    .3809     1.826    .474   .483   .466     .4753       .3418       1.390       94.00      208.3 (206)           207.7                 214.3
                
                TWilliams      .634     .652     .615	  .6273    .3825     1.640    .482   .496   .467     .4763       .3367       1.414       93.57      192.1 (190)           191.5                 189.5
                
                Gehrig         .632     .620     .644     .6568    .4038     1.626    .447   .436   .458     .4671       .3516       1.328       93.76      183.2 (179)           182.1                 179.3
                
                BaBonds        .607     .618     .597     .6089    .4040     1.507    .444   .449   .440     .4488       .3281       1.367       93.95      176.0 (182)           177.5                 197.6
                
                Hornsby	       .577     .589	 .565	  .5763    .3847     1.498    .434   .437   .431     .4396       .3358       1.309       93.73      169.3 (175)           170.7                 167.0
                
                JDiMaggio      .579     .546 	 .610     .6222    .3912     1.590    .398   .391   .405     .4131       .3462       1.193       93.46      166.6 (155)           163.7                 148.8
                
                Mantle	       .557     .569	 .545	  .5559    .3774     1.472    .420   .428   .413     .4212       .3229       1.304       93.38      165.8 (172)           167.3                 166.6
                
                Cobb ('14-'28).     .512     .503	 .516	  .5263    .3714     1.417    .441   .437   .445     .4539       .3404       1.333       94.06      164.6 (168)           165.4                 153.9
                
                MRamirez       .585     .591     .580     .5916    .4257     1.389    .411   .413   .409     .4171       .3372       1.236       99.26      161.2 (154)           159.4                 158.0
                
                McGwire        .588     .591     .586     .5977    .4129     1.447    .394   .402   .386     .3937       .3347       1.176       98.37      159.6 (163)           160.4                 146.2
                
                Musial	       .559     .582	 .537	  .5477    .3853     1.421    .417   .427   .407     .4151       .3285       1.263       93.13      156.8 (159)           157.3                 172.8
                
                Mays	       .557     .567	 .549	  .5599    .3835     1.459    .384   .387   .382     .3896       .3199       1.217       92.90      155.7 (156)           155.7                 169.6
                
                Aaron	       .555     .557	 .552	  .5630    .3817     1.474    .374   .379   .369     .3763       .3199       1.176       93.56      154.3 (155)           154.4                 175.8
                
                Foxx           .609     .663	 .561	  .5722    .3976     1.439    .429   .453   .405     .4131       .3485       1.185       93.60      152.0 (163)           154.7                 152.9
                
                Piazza	       .545     .515	 .572	  .5834    .4138     1.409    .377   .364   .388     .3957       .3320       1.191       94.50      151.2 (143)           149.1                 138.0
                
                Mize	       .562     .598	 .527	  .5375    .3770     1.425    .397   .406   .389     .3967       .3339       1.188       93.46      150.7 (158)           152.5                 138.6
                
                Ott	       .533     .558	 .510	  .5202    .3820     1.361    .415   .422   .408     .4161       .3349       1.242       93.45      149.8 (155)           151.1                 157.9
                
                EMathews       .509     .488	 .529	  .5395    .3872     1.393    .376   .370   .382     .3896       .3196       1.219       92.88      149.7 (143)           148.0                 148.4
                
                FThomas        .555     .599     .511     .5212    .4231     1.231    .419   .424   .414     .4222       .3376       1.250       99.89      147.9 (156)           149.9                 150.2
                
                Heilmann       .520     .527	 .515	  .5253    .3818     1.375    .410   .417   .402     .4100       .3422       1.198       93.94      147.7 (148)           147.7                 142.7
                
                FRobinson      .537     .573	 .504	  .5140    .3778     1.360    .389   .403   .376     .3835       .3179       1.206       94.19      147.5 (154)           149.1                 157.6
                
                Schmidt	       .527     .540	 .515	  .5253    .3741     1.404    .380   .393   .368     .3753       .3207       1.170       93.61      147.3 (147)           147.2                 147.4
                
                ARodriguez     .558     .575     .542     .5528    .4261     1.297    .384   .389   .379     .3865       .3360       1.150       99.90      144.5 (143)           144.1                 150.0
                
                Bagwell        .540     .560     .521     .5314    .4096     1.297    .408   .417   .398     .4059       .3305       1.228       94.13      143.5 (149)           144.8                 142.2
                
                VGuerrero      .553     .568	 .536     .5467    .4203     1.300    .379   .381   .376     .3835       .3336       1.149       97.12      140.7 (140)           140.5                 136.6
                
                Greenberg      .605     .681	 .529	  .5395    .3974     1.357    .412   .440   .382     .3896       .3459       1.126       93.46      138.6 (158)           143.4                 126.4
                
                Kiner          .548     .593	 .503	  .5130    .3882     1.321    .398   .414   .381     .3886       .3330       1.166       93.10      138.4 (149)           141.0                 125.6
                
                McGriff        .509     .508     .510     .5202    .4095     1.270    .377   .377   .376     .3835       .3313       1.157       97.00      138.4 (134)           137.3                 137.9
                
                Snider         .540     .569     .511     .5212    .3934     1.324    .380   .390   .369     .3763       .3266       1.152       92.88      137.0 (140)           137.7                 131.0
                
                ECollins ('14-'30). .425     .418     .430     .4386    .3764     1.165    .429   .426   .431     .4396       .3415       1.287       94.11      136.6 (136)           136.4                 130.6
                
                JRobinson      .474     .491     .456     .4651    .3953     1.176    .409   .410   .408     .4161       .3314       1.255       93.10      133.2 (132)           132.9                 119.0  
                
                Goslin         .500     .484	 .514	  .5242    .4035     1.299    .387   .388   .386     .3937       .3516       1.119       93.88      133.1 (128)           131.8                 131.2
                
                Brett          .487     .506     .469     .4783    .3931     1.216    .369   .383   .356     .3631       .3278       1.107       100.0      132.3 (135)           132.9                 138.2
                
                LWalker        .565     .637	 .495	  .5049    .4054     1.245    .400   .431   .370     .3774       .3288       1.147       94.11      131.0 (141)           133.5                 126.9
                
                RHenderson     .419     .404     .432     .4406    .4090     1.077    .401   .398   .404     .4120       .3322       1.240       98.88      130.2 (127)           129.4                 139.2
                
                ASimmons       .535     .560     .511     .5212    .3972     1.312    .380   .397   .364     .3712       .3470       1.069       93.70      129.3 (133)           130.2                 128.7
                
                Griffey Jr     .538     .573	 .505	  .5151    .4177     1.233    .370   .385   .355     .3621       .3352       1.080       97.70      128.2 (136)           130.1                 134.0
                
                Morgan         .427     .434     .420     .4284    .3729     1.148    .392   .405   .380     .3876       .3183       1.217       93.59      127.7 (132)           128.7                 132.5
                
                Helton         .539     .607     .469     .4783    .4131     1.157    .414   .441   .386     .3937       .3300       1.193       94.23      127.2 (133)           128.6                 127.0
                
                Bench          .476     .486     .466     .4753    .3711     1.280    .342   .348   .335     .3417       .3198       1.068       93.47      125.9 (126)           125.9                 122.4
                
                Clemente       .475     .488     .463     .4722    .3828     1.233    .359   .372   .347     .3539       .3181       1.112       92.88      124.9 (130)           126.1                 126.6
                
                Yastrzemski    .462     .503     .422     .4304    .3783     1.137    .379   .402   .357     .3641       .3200       1.137       96.34      122.7 (130)           124.5                 134.2
                
                Klein          .543     .618     .466	  .4753    .3836     1.239    .379   .410   .346     .3529       .3348       1.054       93.35      120.7 (137)           124.7                 117.7
                
                Garciaparra    .521     .543     .497     .5069    .4285     1.182    .361   .378   .345     .3519       .3374       1.042       98.00      119.9 (124)           120.9                 112.7
                
                Berra          .482     .505     .461     .4702    .3816     1.232    .348   .354   .341     .3478       .3321       1.047       93.57      119.6 (125)           120.9                 117.4
                
                Ripken Jr      .447     .435	 .459	  .4681    .4114     1.137    .340   .336   .344     .3508       .3339       1.050       99.95      118.6 (112)           116.9                 121.7
                
                Kingman	       .478     .478     .478	  .4875    .3788     1.286    .302   .304   .299     .3049       .3226       0.945       95.00      116.9 (115)           116.4                 112.1
                
                Boggs	       .443     .491	 .395     .4029    .4108     .9807    .415   .443   .387     .3947       .3338       1.182       99.94      116.2 (131)           119.9                 121.3
                
                Larkin         .444     .456     .433     .4416    .4013     1.100    .371   .383   .358     .3651       .3274       1.115       93.94      114.1 (116)           114.5                 113.1
                
                Galarraga      .499     .535     .464     .4732    .3990     1.185    .347   .368   .327     .3335       .3265       1.021       94.36      113.7 (119)           115.0                 113.3
                
                GCarter        .439     .447     .430     .4389    .3745     1.171    .335   .348   .322     .3284       .3204       1.024       93.73      112.0 (115)           112.7                 111.4 
                
                IRodriguez     .464     .482     .447     .4559    .4219     1.080    .334   .345   .322     .3284       .3364       0.976       99.23      104.7 (106)           105.0                 105.1
                
                
                
                
                    
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                
                        
                
                
                
                
                
                ABelle	      .564     .580	.549	  .5599      .417     1.34
                RJackson      .490     .481	.499	  .5089      .383     1.33
                HWilson	      .545     .572	.517	  .5273      .398     1.32
                
                
                
                Sosa          .534     .555	.513	  .5232      .407     1.29
                Medwick       .505     .541	.470	  .4794      .373     1.28
                
                
                
                
                DMurphy       .469     .499	.440	  .4488      .376     1.19
                
                
                Sandberg      .452     .491	.412	  .4202      .382     1.10
                
                
                Stargell      .529     .543	.515	  .5253
                DParker       .471     .497	.446	  .4549
                
                Dawson        .482     .481	.483	  .4926
                
                JGonzalez     .561     .565	.557	  .5681
                Canseco       .515     .511	.518	  .5283
                
                Caminiti      .447     .449	.444	  .4528
                .................................................. .................................................. ..................................................Road Relative OPS+ = (ADJ REL SA + ADJ REL OBP) - 1) * ( LEAGUE OPS+ / 100) * 100
                .................................................. .................................................. ..................................................OPS++ = (ROAD REL OPS+ * 3) + (RAW OPS+) / 4 (normalized to eight team league)
                .................................................. .................................................. ..................................................OPS+++ = (ROAD REL OPS++ - 100) * PA / 10,000 + 100
                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 07-21-2014, 09:04 PM.

                Comment


                • That looks good. We still need to figure out what to do with years pre 1914. I have a method. Let me think about how to approach it for a bit.

                  Comment


                  • Yes Brett...pre 1914 is a problem.

                    With the pitchers, you can see I added another Walter line below his, stating "Projected Full Career". I'd like to do the same for Alexander and others. Not sure how many "known" years do we need for that to remain accurate? 60/40?

                    I'm assuming you can do the same thing with hitters, sort of. Not knowing their splits is a bugaboo. Even if we just had Cobb, Collins, and Shoeless' that'd be awesome.

                    Also, is there any way to incorporate Slugging Efficiency into this stat, or is that overkill?

                    Comment


                    • Few things-

                      1. I wouldn't "penalize" pre 1914 players. Or you could add a column based on their total PA's. More info can't hurt.

                      2.You could also add another column for WWII hitters (DiMag, Williams, Mize, Greenberg, Musial?), using whatever adjustment you choose for missed time due to war. It would give some kind of numerical value to "war credit."

                      3. Really would love to see the numbers on Kaline, R Jackson, Stargell, D Allen, & McCovey when you get around to it.

                      4. Thanks for your work on this. I've done a little advanced work on DiMag, Mantle, Mays, & Aaron, so I have some small idea how much labor all this can be.

                      Comment


                      • Code:
                                                HOME     AWAY   (AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)       HOME   AWAY   ..(AWAY * 1.02)           .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+) (HOME AS ROAD NORMALIZED) (WEIGHTED FOR PLAYING TIME)
                                        .SA       SA       SA    EXP OVR SA  LG SA    ADJ REL SA   OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP   LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+      ROAD REL OPS++          ROAD REL OPS+++
                        Code:
                        DAllen         .534     .548     .519     .5293    .3706     1.428    .378   .384   .372     .3794       .3166       1.198       94.40      153.4 (156)           154.0                 139.5
                        
                        McCovey        .515     .527     .504     .5140    .3763     1.365    .374   .377   .372     .3794       .3189       1.189       93.27      144.9 (147)           145.4                 144.0
                        
                        RJackson       .490     .481     .499     .5089    .3833     1.327    .356   .349   .362     .3692       .3228       1.143       98.00      144.0 (139)           142.7                 148.7
                        
                        Stargell       .529     .543     .515     .5253    .3725     1.410    .360   .371   .350     .3570       .3182       1.121       93.28      142.8 (147)           143.8                 139.5
                        
                        Kaline         .480     .501     .458     .4671    .3752     1.244    .376   .383   .369     .3763       .3208       1.173       93.86      132.9 (134)           133.1                 138.3
                        Ask and you shall receive. Here are those guys, and they are mixed in with the first post, so you can see where they slot.

                        Allen has a solid lead in Road Relative, and takes a slightly bigger lead when home parks become road parks. Obviously the last column is where takes the hit, he comes in second to last, 139.53 to 139.50.

                        Reggie leaps to the top after park and playing time are factored in.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          Code:
                                                  HOME     AWAY   (AWAY * 1.02)        .(EXP SA / LG SA)       HOME   AWAY   ..(AWAY * 1.02)           .(EXP OBP / LG OBP)            .(ACTUAL OPS+) (HOME AS ROAD NORMALIZED) (WEIGHTED FOR PLAYING TIME)
                                          .SA       SA       SA    EXP OVR SA  LG SA    ADJ REL SA   OBP   .OBP    OBP    EXP OVR OBP   LG OBP     ADJ REL OBP    LG OPS+    ROAD REL OPS+      ROAD REL OPS++          ROAD REL OPS+++
                          Code:
                          DAllen         .534     .548     .519     .5293    .3706     1.428    .378   .384   .372     .3794       .3166       1.198       94.40      153.4 (156)           154.0                 139.5
                          
                          McCovey        .515     .527     .504     .5140    .3763     1.365    .374   .377   .372     .3794       .3189       1.189       93.27      144.9 (147)           145.4                 144.0
                          
                          RJackson       .490     .481     .499     .5089    .3833     1.327    .356   .349   .362     .3692       .3228       1.143       98.00      144.0 (139)           142.7                 148.7
                          
                          Stargell       .529     .543     .515     .5253    .3725     1.410    .360   .371   .350     .3570       .3182       1.121       93.28      142.8 (147)           143.8                 139.5
                          
                          Kaline         .480     .501     .458     .4671    .3752     1.244    .376   .383   .369     .3763       .3208       1.173       93.86      132.9 (134)           133.1                 138.3
                          Ask and you shall receive. Here are those guys, and they are mixed in with the first post, so you can see where they slot.

                          Allen has a solid lead in Road Relative, and takes a slightly bigger lead when home parks become road parks. Obviously the last column is where takes the hit, he comes in second to last, 139.53 to 139.50.

                          Reggie leaps to the top after park and playing time are factored in.
                          Awesome! Thanks Randy.
                          I thought after the road adjustments that Allen would have a clear advantage over the others, and that Jackson, McCovey, & Stargell would have very similar numbers so this makes sense.
                          It's great to have these historical hitters on your list.

                          Comment


                          • Without looking anything up, where do you think Dave Parker will sit?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                              Without looking anything up, where do you think Dave Parker will sit?
                              I had to peek at Parker's H/A numbers.:blush:

                              Looks like Parker will drop into the teens. I'm more interested in Murray & Winfield. They were clearly hurt by their home park(s). Winfield especially. I wouldn't be surprised if his adjusted OPS++ is up with or past Kaline, Brett, & Walker on the list.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                                I had to peek at Parker's H/A numbers.:blush:

                                Looks like Parker will drop into the teens. I'm more interested in Murray & Winfield. They were clearly hurt by their home park(s). Winfield especially. I wouldn't be surprised if his adjusted OPS++ is up with or past Kaline, Brett, & Walker on the list.
                                I don't know Parker's splits either offhand, but I have heard that two of his 3 main home parks were not especially hitter's parks at all: Three Rivers and Oakland Coliseum. How was Riverfront for power hitters in the 1980s? Were those parks considered neutral during his time in the 70s and 80s or how did they play compared to the rest of the league(s)? How did the big Cobra look in his H/A splits?

                                I too would be interested in Murray and Winfield.
                                "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

                                Comment

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