Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • rrWHIP would be interesting.

    Yeah ERA+ is more important. Was even able to calculate OPS+ allowed with Brett's help.

    I think raw SA is inferior for sure. Kinda why I like slugging efficiency. Maybe for pitchers we could do SLGeff and/or OBPeff allowed
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

      Maybe that dipsy thingy?
      Don't see why it has to be. I think fangraphs just did an article about catering park factors (which would change RAA and WAA) to handedness tendencies of pitchers and their parks. Right now, park factors are one-size-fits-all. We could improve it by considering ball trajectory tendencies too.

      I mean, you could adjust FIP for park factors too, if one wanted to. In fact, that may be what FG was going...
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

      Comment


      • Originally posted by layson27 View Post
        Fangraphs would be easy if you wanted wRC/PA, or PA/wRC. It also has hit totals, HR totals, AB totals, etc.. excluding pitchers. Otherwise you have to remove pitchers manually if BBref stats are used.

        There's two basic RC calculators I found:
        http://captaincalculator.com/sports/...ed-calculator/
        (First calculator on page is simple method)


        http://www.had2know.com/sports/runs-...alculator.html
        (For simple RC use 0 for SB & CS.)
        The first three methods at the first site, and all the methods at the second site, are all variations of OBP x TB, some taking into account SB. The last one at the first site is a linear weights version, but not the one used at FG or I think at BBRef. FG uses a version in which only positive offensive events are accounted for, as outs are taken care of in the linear weights for these events. And at both sites, RC refers to batting runs created; they do not include SB in their RC. Baserunning is determined separately.

        That last formula at the first site is a little confusing, because the use of factors defined as A,B,C and D suggests it's a form of base runs, which is considered the most accurate of all ways to calculate runs created. However, from the definitions they give, it doesn't appear to be a base runs formula. From Wiki:

        A*B/(B + C) + D

        A represents baserunners; B represents advancement of baserunners; C represents outs; and D represents guaranteed runs (usually just home runs). Thus, Base Runs adheres to the true identity that Runs Scored = baserunners * (% of baserunners that score) + home runs. B/(B + C) is an empirical estimate of the percentage of baserunners that score, and is the main source of potential improvement for Base Runs formulas.
        Last edited by Stolensingle; 02-10-2015, 03:48 PM.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
          Don't see why it has to be. I think fangraphs just did an article about catering park factors (which would change RAA and WAA) to handedness tendencies of pitchers and their parks. Right now, park factors are one-size-fits-all. We could improve it by considering ball trajectory tendencies too.

          I mean, you could adjust FIP for park factors too, if one wanted to. In fact, that may be what FG was going...
          I thought DIPS was good.

          Would you say that WHIP is the next most important stat after ERA? Then we could somehow incorporate total bases allowed into the equation, for guys who allowed a higher than league average number of extra base hits?
          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 02-10-2015, 04:34 PM.
          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

          Comment


          • Ok this might be useless. Just rambling to see if anything sticks. That's what this thread is for after all. I'd like opinions from the esteemed stat experts.

            What if we looked at TB per IP. And then added that to WHIP. That would give us an idea who allowed more extra base hits AND who was more efficient at allowing base runners.

            Just two guys at random.......

            Code:
                                 OVERALL           HOME           ROAD          LG ROAD          ROAD RELATIVE
                                 tbWHIP           tbWHIP         tbWHIP          tbWHIP          tbWHIP * 100
            Code:
            PMartinez            2.288            2.242          2.330           3.078               132.1
            
            Grove                2.528            2.534          2.521           2.992               118.6
            I'm not sure about giving home as road, removing pitchers, or somehow accounting for lefty platoon disadvantage. What I do know, is we can weigh that final number by career IP. I think 3600 IP is a bit much, but maybe it's not.

            If we do that...

            Pedro's 2827.3 IP is divided by 3600 to get 0.7853. Multiplied by 162.7 = 127.7

            Grove's 3939.7 IP is divided by 3600 to get 1.094. Multiplied by 161.9 = 177.1

            I know Pedro will always be hurt when weighting by IP, but that's why I think it's a bit harsh on modern pitchers here, the 3600 IP... given the power pretenders throughout lineups and the extreme focus toward specialized relief. Perhaps we could add another component and figure out the avg number of IP/games started year by year. Not sure where to find that. If we could, the arbitrary 3600 IP number could be avoided altogether, essentially weighing each pitcher by their expected IP/Start....league specific.

            Any thoughts?
            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 02-11-2015, 05:55 PM.
            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

            Comment


            • Perhaps throw in a factor relating a starter's average innings/start versus the league? Or even some other innings ratio relative to their peers?
              Morrill to Nash to Tenney to Gowdy to Cooney to Spahn to Niekro to Glavine to Moylan

              Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

              Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

              Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

              Comment


              • Good call. I mentioned that at the end. Get league specific IP/start to weigh by.

                I just don't know the math to implement it.
                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 02-11-2015, 01:21 PM.
                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                  Good call. I mentioned that at the end. Get league specific IP/start to weigh by.

                  I just don't know the math to implement it.
                  One idea. Get league IP and calculate what % a pitcher is above or below that number, then add or subtract that % from the player's stat.
                  Example- Pedro's tbWHIP is 162.7, but he pitched 10% fewer innings that league avg. Subtract 10% from 162.7 and you get 146.4.

                  Have no idea how that would work when you get the actual stats. Maybe the number is closer to 2-3%, in which case the penalty would be very minor.

                  Comment


                  • Think you're on to something there.

                    Just one thing...can we remove reliever innings from the league total?
                    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      Think you're on to something there.

                      Just one thing...can we remove reliever innings from the league total?
                      Fangraphs has total innings pitched by starters. BBref has IP/GS compared to league on each pitcher's page. Maddux averaged 6.8 during his career while the MLB avg. was 6.0.

                      Not sure if any of that helps.

                      AL innings pitched by starter over the last ten years:
                      http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

                      Comment


                      • I saw that IP/GS on bbref. Looks like it only goes back to 1930 I think.

                        This might change our approach. I had the league number wrong. Was only using league road WHIP instead of doing road TB/IP first. Had to look those up.

                        The new numbers.

                        Code:
                                             OVERALL           HOME           ROAD          LG ROAD          ROAD RELATIVE
                                             tbWHIP           tbWHIP         tbWHIP          tbWHIP          tbWHIP * 100
                        Code:
                        PMartinez            2.288            2.242          2.330           3.078               132.1
                        
                        Grove                2.528            2.534          2.521           2.992               118.6
                        I'm not totally opposed to weighing by 3600 IP. Basically 240 innings for 15 years. Just thought if we could get something better which takes era into account.

                        Pedro's career high was 241.1 IP.

                        On the other hand if we just go by starters IP, then it penalizes past era starters who also relieved.

                        We could use 200 IP for 15 years as the standard which is 3000 IP.

                        Using that final number and using 3600 IP

                        Pedro - 103.7
                        Grove - 129.7

                        And 3000 IP

                        Pedro - 124.4
                        Grove - 155.7

                        Before I jump in and work a bunch of players I wanna get the method straight.

                        Any idea on how to get home as road Layson?
                        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 02-11-2015, 06:20 PM.
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          Before I jump in and work a bunch of players I wanna get the method straight.

                          Any idea on how to get home as road Layson?
                          Starting to lose me with the pitching stats, but wouldn't you still use the same old formula? rr# is 3/4, overall# is 1/4?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                            I thought DIPS was good.

                            Would you say that WHIP is the next most important stat after ERA? Then we could somehow incorporate total bases allowed into the equation, for guys who allowed a higher than league average number of extra base hits?
                            DIPS is fantastic...for projecting players with small sample sizes of data. Even for a majority with large sample sizes. But there are a lot of pitchers especially the ones we spend the most time talking about) that can outperfom or underperform DIPS drastically.

                            Problems with WHIP:

                            It treats all hits the same (obviously the runs cost by a FB pitcher with a 1.3 WHIP will be much worse than a GB pitcher with a 1.3 WHIP).
                            It assumes pitcher responsibility for all hits allowed and none to the defense behind the pitcher. That is terrible. The defense behind a pitcher has a massive effect on the number of hits a pitcher gives up.
                            It ignores catcher pitch framing, which can have a huge effect on walks.
                            It ignores the park the pitcher plays in.
                            it still ignores GIDP, WPs, HBP, and controlling the running game.
                            It assumes IBB = UIBB, which is not true.
                            Obviously run environment has to be considered when comparing players of different eras.

                            If we are just talking about run prevention (and not trying to convert it into wins, ala Win Shares or WAR) - I'd prefer FIP for players pitchers with fewer than 6 years experience and RA+ (or RAA) for pitchers with a larger sample size. Even for large samples I'd take FIP over WHIP.
                            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 02-12-2015, 06:17 AM.
                            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                              Even for large samples I'd take FIP over WHIP.
                              I'm not saying I have any answers, but then doesn't this hurt the smart pitchers (Maddux, J. Palmer, etc.) who can pitch to best use their defenders? I have that issue with FIP. This may not apply if you think that a smart pitcher can't use their defenders' strengths, but I'm of the opinion they can. So a guy like Nolan Ryan (who I think was more talented than "smart") would benefit more than a Maddux.
                              Morrill to Nash to Tenney to Gowdy to Cooney to Spahn to Niekro to Glavine to Moylan

                              Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                              Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                              Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                                Problems with WHIP:

                                It treats all hits the same (obviously the runs cost by a FB pitcher with a 1.3 WHIP will be much worse than a GB pitcher with a 1.3 WHIP).
                                It assumes pitcher responsibility for all hits allowed and none to the defense behind the pitcher. That is terrible. The defense behind a pitcher has a massive effect on the number of hits a pitcher gives up.
                                It ignores catcher pitch framing, which can have a huge effect on walks.
                                It ignores the park the pitcher plays in.
                                it still ignores GIDP, WPs, HBP, and controlling the running game.
                                It assumes IBB = UIBB, which is not true.
                                Obviously run environment has to be considered when comparing players of different eras.
                                I would think using road WHIP would mitigate the park factors. If the goal was getting a WHIP+ number then era considerations would also be taken care of.

                                Comment

                                Ad Widget

                                Collapse
                                Working...
                                X