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  • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Brett,

    I know I've brought this up before, but I'd really appreciate if you put some thought into this. There HAS to be a way to give leadoff hitters (that specific role of all roles) their due. I mean seriously, you have the greatest leadoff hitter Rickey Henderson being lucky to be in peeps' top 30 all-time. I've thought about counting stolen bases as total bases to help their SA but that's probably a bit much. Isn't there SOME WAY we can put their value into perspective statistically?
    Yes. The way to do it would be to calculate their OPS+ or their relative value compared to the league average for leadoff hitters.

    There is another way too. Linear weights will technically be different for different spots in the lineup. For a leadoff hitter, walks have a higher relative value compared to other events. Home runs have a slightly lower relative value. We could find the linear weights values for each spot in the lineup. (Well, someone could).
    Last edited by brett; 09-16-2016, 10:38 AM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
      The get a boost in career value in regards to counting numbers because of more PA. And at least one a game they have zero chance of hitting into a DP.
      More PA helps their war, but DPs depend on DP situations (if a guy faces few DP situations he is expected by war to have fewer DPs already).

      Comment


      • They're also guaranteed one PA where there's nobody on base for them to drive in. On top of that, a huge number of their PA see nobody on base anyway, considering the pitcher bats in front of them.
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • Wow that one extra year (1913) of splits BBref just did changed Shoeless Joe's outlook. He was sittin' at 166 rrOPS+, and eight point gain. His splits in 1913 were

          H - .428 .503 .646 (22 doubles, 14 triples)
          R - .316 .417 .453 (17 doubles, 3 triples)

          He's gonna be about dead even after that season is factored in. Wow.
          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
            Brett,

            I know I've brought this up before, but I'd really appreciate if you put some thought into this. There HAS to be a way to give leadoff hitters (that specific role of all roles) their due. I mean seriously, you have the greatest leadoff hitter Rickey Henderson being lucky to be in peeps' top 30 all-time. I've thought about counting stolen bases as total bases to help their SA but that's probably a bit much. Isn't there SOME WAY we can put their value into perspective statistically?
            Maybe I am thinking about this all wrong, but could Rickey Henderson just be a victim of bias against more modern players, along with Rickey's own personality? His advanced metrics compare well, his stolen bases dwarf everyone else, and he scored tons of runs. But his batting average was not necessarily high which stops a lot of people from noticing (but that is changing).

            The issue seems to be who do you compare Rickey Henderson to?

            Originally it seemed to be Lou Brock, but that is a terrible comparison since Brock is one of the more overrated players in the hall of fame. Henderson is MUCH better than him.

            Then who do you compare him to? Tim Raines, but he is not in the hall of fame (primarily because he compares unfavorably to Henderson...and cocaine).

            In the HOF would his best comparison be Joe Morgan? But Joe wasn't really a leadoff hitter.


            Maybe first step would be to define a top 10 or top 20 leadoff hitters list. And we define what makes a good leadoff hitter. Alfonso Soriano holds a bunch of leadoff hitter records for power, but he was bad at the main thing we look for in a leadoff hitter (getting on base).

            So after this rambling back to the question:

            If we were to adjust somehow for leadoff hitters would be negatively adjust someone like Alfonso Soriano or Bobby Richardson who did not perform the role well at all?

            Would we be better served to maybe come of with a leadoff hitter comparison metric. We could also use it to show that maybe a certain player should have hit leadoff instead of the other player.


            Sorry for the stream of consciousness reply.
            "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

            -Bill James

            Comment


            • Sturj, while you were gone JAlbright did some "polls" on topics like a Leadoff hitter HOF. As I recall he produced charts or rankings in a number of leadoff hitter related categories. I have no competence with searching for same to link it.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                Sturj, while you were gone JAlbright did some "polls" on topics like a Leadoff hitter HOF. As I recall he produced charts or rankings in a number of leadoff hitter related categories. I have no competence with searching for same to link it.
                excellent, I will try to located it.

                Thanks!
                "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

                -Bill James

                Comment


                • I am more interested in how Rickey cannot possibly stack up with the all-time elites, even though I consider him one. The reason is because hus specific role is hard to quantify. Counting SB's as TB, or maybe weighing his OBP differently, considering he was more valuable to have on base than your average player. Something to get his OPS+ (since that's all anyone seems to acknowledge) up to be compared with the titans. I don't think we should keep him in a tiny box by comparing him only to other leadoff hitters. He deserves more imo.
                  "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                  ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                  Comment


                  • i think I mentioned this before, but weighing different events differently by spot in the lineup will result in walks and singles being worth more from the leadoff spot and extra bases being worth a more from deeper in the lineup.

                    It also may be inherently a little harder to produce the same batting stats from the leadoff spot. It would be hard to see because managers have tended to bat guys in the leadoff spot that sabermetrics says should have batted 7-8.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      I am more interested in how Rickey cannot possibly stack up with the all-time elites, even though I consider him one. The reason is because hus specific role is hard to quantify. Counting SB's as TB, or maybe weighing his OBP differently, considering he was more valuable to have on base than your average player. Something to get his OPS+ (since that's all anyone seems to acknowledge) up to be compared with the titans. I don't think we should keep him in a tiny box by comparing him only to other leadoff hitters. He deserves more imo.
                      Maybe you already mentioned this, but where do you rank Rickey? Looking at his numbers and he is already an all-time great. How great do you think he is?
                      "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

                      -Bill James

                      Comment


                      • Without a way to truly put his offensive value I have him at #16. Just looked at my list in the "Rank your top 100 position players" thread. Tough to bump any of the guys ahead of him, although I think a case could be made in some instances.

                        Here's where 16 different fever members ranked Rickey.

                        23
                        20
                        34
                        12
                        24
                        16
                        17
                        17
                        20
                        16
                        14
                        30
                        19
                        15
                        21
                        19
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          Without a way to truly put his offensive value I have him at #16. Just looked at my list in the "Rank your top 100 position players" thread. Tough to bump any of the guys ahead of him, although I think a case could be made in some instances.

                          Here's where 16 different fever members ranked Rickey.

                          23
                          20
                          34
                          12
                          24
                          16
                          17
                          17
                          20
                          16
                          14
                          30
                          19
                          15
                          21
                          19
                          ok, and are you arguing that the general consensus is that Rickey is not a top-20 player?
                          "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

                          -Bill James

                          Comment


                          • 12 of 16 members have him ranked 15-25. Another has him at 14. All but one are between 12-30. The highest and probably outlier by a factor of one is still a solid 34. That is pretty good considering very few people have him even ranked 3rd at his own position.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                              12 of 16 members have him ranked 15-25. Another has him at 14. All but one are between 12-30. The highest and probably outlier by a factor of one is still a solid 34. That is pretty good considering very few people have him even ranked 3rd at his own position.
                              That would change if they started ranking Musial where he belongs, at 1B.
                              .


                              19th Century League Champion
                              1900s League Champion
                              1910s League Champion

                              1930s League Division Winner
                              1950s League Champion
                              1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
                              1960s League Division Winner
                              1970s League Champion
                              1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
                              1980s League Champion
                              All Time Greats League Champion

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                                Without a way to truly put his offensive value I have him at #16. Just looked at my list in the "Rank your top 100 position players" thread. Tough to bump any of the guys ahead of him, although I think a case could be made in some instances.

                                Here's where 16 different fever members ranked Rickey.

                                23
                                20
                                34
                                12
                                24
                                16
                                17
                                17
                                20
                                16
                                14
                                30
                                19
                                15
                                21
                                19
                                I have him at # 20 among position players, 26 overall.
                                .


                                19th Century League Champion
                                1900s League Champion
                                1910s League Champion

                                1930s League Division Winner
                                1950s League Champion
                                1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
                                1960s League Division Winner
                                1970s League Champion
                                1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
                                1980s League Champion
                                All Time Greats League Champion

                                Comment

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