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  • Originally posted by brett

    You can try. Since OPS+ is about 6% lower with pitchers you could multiply the NL rates by 1.06, but DH's are something like 16% above average, spread through the lineup that would also be another 2% there. So 1.08. That's a first impression. In fact it raises an issue that even though pitchers are removed in finding OPS+, AL hitters are still compared to a lineup with a DH added.
    In addition to the DH numbers being part of OPS+ in the NL vs AL, we should also factor in the effect of pinch hitters (they’re truly awful) when comparing players OPS+ between the two leagues. This is especially meaningful for 1973-1996 players, before interleague play, one would think...

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    • FYI retrosheet has Home/Road splits back to 1905, so we finally can get the full career road numbers of Cobb & Speaker.

      https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/C/Jcobbt1010.htm

      https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/S/Jspeat1010.htm

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
        For the DNRA++ info, if I understand correctly, the WAA is strictly pitching only?
        Please confirm if my assumption is good

        If so, the biggest gaps between Baseball Reference raw and DNRA++ for WAA is:

        B-R WAA, DNRA++, Gap, Hurler:
        Guys gaining 2 or more WAA
        33.7 40.1 6.4 Walsh
        31.9 37.2 5.3 Feller
        26.5 30.9 4.4 Faber
        92.7 97.1 4.4 WJohnson
        39.0 43.3 4.3 Spahn
        19.2 23.5 4.3 Rixey
        13.2 17.4 4.2 CMays
        29.4 33.5 4.1 MBrown
        18.3 22.3 4.0 Gomez
        37.0 40.9 3.9 Hubbell
        24.2 27.7 3.5 Cicotte
        27.4 30.9 3.5 Ford
        16.1 19.5 3.4 Hoyt
        25.8 28.8 3.0 Lyons
        26.8 29.8 3.0 Drysdale
        7.3_ 10.2 2.9 Pennock
        33.8 36.6 2.8 Coveleski
        8.1_ 10.7 2.6 Zachary
        10.3 12.6 2.3 Root
        28.2 30.4 2.2 Marichal
        4.9_ 6.9_ 2.0 Sherdel
        14.0 16.0 2.0 Wynn
        12.4 14.4 2.0 Uhle

        Guys losing 2 or more WAA:
        91.5 79.9 (11.6Clemens
        65.6 55.9 (9.7) Rjohnson
        69.0 60.0 (9.0) Nichols
        49.6 43.0 (6.6) Blyleven
        61.9 55.5 (6.4) Maddux
        59.8 53.8 (6.0) PMartinez
        33.2 27.3 (5.9) Tiant
        51.9 46.0 (5.9) Schilling
        45.7 39.9 (5.8) Keefe
        99.5 93.8 (5.7) Young
        48.3 43.1 (5.2) Niekro
        7.4_ 2.6_ (4.8) Morris
        46.4 41.7 (4.7) Mussina
        17.6 13.0 (4.6) Tanana
        4.3_ 0.0_ (4.3) Kaat
        38.4 34.3 (4.1) KBrown
        10.3 6.2_ (4.1) Moyer
        36.4 32.9 (3.5) Glavine
        33.9 30.4 (3.5) Cone
        30.7 27.4 (3.3) Oswalt
        12.3 9.2_ (3.1) DMartinez
        23.3 20.3 (3.0) Hershiser
        22.4 19.5 (2.9) Gooden
        5.4_ 2.9_ (2.5) Drabek
        40.4 38.0 (2.4) Jenkins
        31.7 29.7 (2.0) Radbourn
        70.1 68.1 (2.0) Grove
        How is Seaver not on this list when he gets a 5-6 ERA+ boost alone from park-specific adjustments?
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

          How is Seaver not on this list when he gets a 5-6 ERA+ boost alone from park-specific adjustments?
          Maybe you need to scrap that analysis, I was comparing the WAA in the file where Seaver is credited with 62.178...B-R shows as 62.8 today for pitching.
          Or better yet, can we have a refreshed DNRA++ spreadsheet?
          Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
          http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

            Maybe you need to scrap that analysis, I was comparing the WAA in the file where Seaver is credited with 62.178...B-R shows as 66.6 today.
            Or better yet, can we have a refreshed DNRA++ spreadsheet?
            That would be great if you can. Though even with 62.2 compared to 67, we should still see Seaver high up the list.

            Would it be possible to maybe do the 50 top and 50 bottom?
            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 10-22-2019, 03:41 PM.
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

            Comment


            • Originally posted by layson27

              Not up to par on these adjustment discussions but If you want some type of road ERA adjustment you can always use league averages. I am assuming the problem is in trying to find league road ERA season averages??? Or am I off base? If so then never mind...
              We need how much individual pitcher were impacted by their specific parks...beyond the cookie cutter park effects BBPro uses. Using just league road ERA is only one step.

              I am just trying to see what is the range of impact can truly be. Are specialized park effects really to explain almost all of some HOFers +200-300 runs saved above average? Beyond what BBRef has already accounted for? Or even 100?

              On the other hand, Ryan was a league average road pitcher for his career. Ruffing and Wynn too. Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, and Robin Roberts, 3 guys who are top 20 pitchers to most, were pretty much Jamie Moyer on the road for their careers.

              Also notable, is that the extreme ends for guys losing value through rrERA+ is over twice as big as guys gaining value. Tons of guys are losing 100+ runs, but VERY few are gaining 100+ runs. Not sure what it all means.
              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                We need how much individual pitcher were impacted by their specific parks...beyond the cookie cutter park effects BBPro uses. Using just league road ERA is only one step.

                I am just trying to see what is the range of impact can truly be. Are specialized park effects really to explain almost all of some HOFers +200-300 runs saved above average? Beyond what BBRef has already accounted for? Or even 100?

                On the other hand, Ryan was a league average road pitcher for his career. Ruffing and Wynn too. Bob Feller, Warren Spahn, and Robin Roberts, 3 guys who are top 20 pitchers to most, were pretty much Jamie Moyer on the road for their careers.

                Also notable, is that the extreme ends for guys losing value through rrERA+ is over twice as big as guys gaining value. Tons of guys are losing 100+ runs, but VERY few are gaining 100+ runs. Not sure what it all means.
                Not sure if it helps at all, but this is road ERA % above or below raw ERA back to 1908- https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/rawlx

                Do we have any idea why Gibson was hurt by his park more than any great pitcher in recorded history? Obviously with any kind of park adjustment he looks even more tremendous than he does now.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by layson27 View Post

                  Not sure if it helps at all, but this is road ERA % above or below raw ERA back to 1908- https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/rawlx

                  Do we have any idea why Gibson was hurt by his park more than any great pitcher in recorded history? Obviously with any kind of park adjustment he looks even more tremendous than he does now.
                  These results are matching well with my results. No idea what is going on with Gibson. We cannot underestimate how much might just be randomness.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • Gibson's home parks were slightly higher than average run setting. I think the park factor averages out to about 102 which makes his home park about 104%. Suggests that he pitched worse at home anyway and certainly did not have a typical home advantage.

                    There are some possibilities:

                    1) He could have gone deeper into games at home. He actually did, with 7.42 innings per game at home and 7.30 on the road, though pitchers tend to get more IP at home anyway, but the point is, he was pitching in the 9th inning at home more than on the road.

                    2) He could have been of a neurotype that tended to thrive on adranaline and needed the extra stress to get up optimally for games. There are a percentage of athletes that tend to do so.

                    3) Park peculiarities? We might expect to see one or more stats that are abnormally skewed between home and road.

                    The home to road difference mostly comes down to 2 stats. 1) His Babip at home was about 4% above his overall. 1) He had a few more unearned runs on the road on a percentage basis, so the home road difference comes together by about 2% when looking at total runs allowed. A lot of the BABIP difference seem to show up in doubles.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      I can do any single year, or multiple years you like, of any player (we have splits for). Just let me know.
                      Can we update this given that splits go back through 1904 now on Retrosheet and Baseball Ref?

                      Comment


                      • I'm willing to help update here back through 1904 is Randy (Sultan) is gone. Send me a PM if so.

                        Thanks everyone.

                        Comment


                        • Bump so I dont have to keep searching each time I need it.
                          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                            Bump so I dont have to keep searching each time I need it.
                            Think it should be stickied?
                            Put it in the books.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by milladrive View Post

                              Think it should be stickied?
                              Second the notion.
                              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by milladrive View Post

                                Think it should be stickied?
                                That would be great. Thank you.
                                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                                Comment

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