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Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

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  • #61
    OK 10 minutes.

    What would you expect for him?
    Last edited by brett; 05-05-2014, 09:18 AM.

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    • #62
      probably because it's being compared against other hitters it seems like every point difference in either direction carries a lot more weight then tOPS for instance.

      Even though a guy might have huge home/road splits, and he got to play there 81 times a year, others throughout the league performed well too. So each point is significant.
      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-05-2014, 09:22 AM.

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      • #63
        don't know what his overall is offhand but I would expect at least a seven or eight point difference

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        • #64
          138 road so 146 home. Pretty big.

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          • #65
            Wow yeah about dead on.

            I bet Walker goes 10+ lol

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            • #66
              I wonder though. More hitters throughout the league, and up and down modern lineups take a slugging approach; even middle infielders.

              So that means it will be harder for modern guys to separate and for a gap to be created. In other words, Hack will show to be above the league avg further than if middle infielders were taking his approach.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                Wow yeah about dead on.

                I bet Walker goes 10+ lol

                Who, Larry Walker? I bet he is almost zero. Colorado had almost 50% more offense for VISITING players in some seasons. I am going to run just his years which were totally CO.
                Last edited by brett; 05-05-2014, 10:20 AM.

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                • #68
                  Good point.

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                  • #69
                    well you were right. He was 158 at home and 136 on the road relative to everyone during the CO years. Probably a 14-15 point split over his whole career.

                    I think Helton and Tulo nearly break even though.

                    I'm estimating that using his road OPS+ he would have lost about 8 WAR. That brings him down from 73 to 65.

                    By the way I have never pushed for him as a HOFer. Very good, but not quite over the threshold.

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                    • #70
                      Wowsers. Ok Im on a roll. Another 7 or 8 point guy has to be Sandberg.

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by brett View Post
                        By the way I have never pushed for him as a HOFer. Very good, but not quite over the threshold.
                        Not to digress, but how is a person who plays a tough position (RF), who fields great (+94 Rfield), runs great (+40 Rbase) and has a 136 Road OPS+ (81st if neutralized H/A to 139 OPS+) in 2,000 games not over the threshold?
                        Last edited by drstrangelove; 05-05-2014, 01:57 PM.
                        "It's better to look good, than be good."

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
                          Not to digress, but how is a person who plays a tough position (RF), who fields great (+94 Rfield), runs great (+40 Rbase) and has a 136 Road OPS+ (81st if neutralized H/A to 139 OPS+) in 2,000 games not over the threshold?
                          Well, OK, I should have said my hall of fame, because I think that it is a little too large, though 65 WAR would basically right at my border for a small hall of position players, maybe 120. Maybe that would turn out to be too small.

                          Second, the 136 road OPS+ is relative to everyone else on the road already-I've already neutralized the normal road drop. THAT would put him in a tie for 132, and the drop in WAR would move him from 55th to 93rd.

                          But Walker is basically in the group that is not on my "automatic in" group, but deserving of strong consideration. He's just battling 15-25 guys around there. Maybe I should run his career splits anyway to see if the Coors field hangover hurt him.

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                          • #73
                            So I added up Walker a little off, and in his favor.

                            Here are the splits for
                            career: 154 to 128
                            Exclusive CO home park years: 164 to 130
                            No CO home park years:131 to 124


                            My main mistake in posts over the years in which I got CO guys higher was that I did not remove pitchers in estimating their road OPS+.

                            If Walker's road rates are the true indicator, he should lose 13 WAR.

                            But it also looks like Walker may have been hurt from the "Coors hangover". We might want to see his splits in CO when it wasn't his home park.

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by brett View Post
                              So I added up Walker a little off, and in his favor.

                              Here are the splits for
                              career: 154 to 128
                              Exclusive CO home park years: 164 to 130
                              No CO home park years:131 to 124


                              My main mistake in posts over the years in which I got CO guys higher was that I did not remove pitchers in estimating their road OPS+.

                              If Walker's road rates are the true indicator, he should lose 13 WAR.

                              But it also looks like Walker may have been hurt from the "Coors hangover". We might want to see his splits in CO when it wasn't his home park.
                              Not sure what you mean by hangover. You mean his head was hurting from not being able to hit there?

                              Not much to go on, him in Colorado when it wasn't his home field. In 1994 it was Mile High; he went .231/.231/.385 in 13 PA. But that was before he played there, so can't be considered a hangover. In 2005 he batted .091 and slugged .091 in 12 PA .

                              I think Walker was a good hitter no matter where he played, but we shouldn't ignore what's right in front of us. Through no fault of his own, the guy played where he played and certainly benefitted from his park.

                              Career tOPS split of 120/80 and career slash split of

                              Home - .348/.431/.637
                              Road -- .278/.370/.495

                              Doesn't tell the whole picture.

                              For his entire career, his line in Coors Field .381/.462/.710. That's in 2501 PA, no small sample size.

                              It's good looking at what the league did there, and removing pitchers, with this sOPS+ process. It certainly shrinks the gap tOPS+ shows but every point difference carries more weight. He's right about where he belongs. We shouldn't be reaching to excuse what it right in front of us.

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                              • #75
                                Here's Ryno......126/101

                                If we round that NL OPS+ up to 94, his road is 102.5.

                                Sandberg(sOPS+).jpg

                                Oh here's the full excel file for both league back to 1914
                                Attached Files
                                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-05-2014, 06:30 PM.

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