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  • #76
    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Wow yeah about dead on.

    I bet Walker goes 10+ lol

    Who, Larry Walker? I bet he is almost zero. Colorado had almost 50% more offense for VISITING players in some seasons. I am going to run just his years which were totally CO.
    Last edited by brett; 05-05-2014, 10:20 AM.

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    • #77
      Good point.

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      • #78
        well you were right. He was 158 at home and 136 on the road relative to everyone during the CO years. Probably a 14-15 point split over his whole career.

        I think Helton and Tulo nearly break even though.

        I'm estimating that using his road OPS+ he would have lost about 8 WAR. That brings him down from 73 to 65.

        By the way I have never pushed for him as a HOFer. Very good, but not quite over the threshold.

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        • #79
          Wowsers. Ok Im on a roll. Another 7 or 8 point guy has to be Sandberg.

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          • #80
            Originally posted by brett View Post
            By the way I have never pushed for him as a HOFer. Very good, but not quite over the threshold.
            Not to digress, but how is a person who plays a tough position (RF), who fields great (+94 Rfield), runs great (+40 Rbase) and has a 136 Road OPS+ (81st if neutralized H/A to 139 OPS+) in 2,000 games not over the threshold?
            Last edited by drstrangelove; 05-05-2014, 01:57 PM.
            "It's better to look good, than be good."

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            • #81
              Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
              Not to digress, but how is a person who plays a tough position (RF), who fields great (+94 Rfield), runs great (+40 Rbase) and has a 136 Road OPS+ (81st if neutralized H/A to 139 OPS+) in 2,000 games not over the threshold?
              Well, OK, I should have said my hall of fame, because I think that it is a little too large, though 65 WAR would basically right at my border for a small hall of position players, maybe 120. Maybe that would turn out to be too small.

              Second, the 136 road OPS+ is relative to everyone else on the road already-I've already neutralized the normal road drop. THAT would put him in a tie for 132, and the drop in WAR would move him from 55th to 93rd.

              But Walker is basically in the group that is not on my "automatic in" group, but deserving of strong consideration. He's just battling 15-25 guys around there. Maybe I should run his career splits anyway to see if the Coors field hangover hurt him.

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              • #82
                So I added up Walker a little off, and in his favor.

                Here are the splits for
                career: 154 to 128
                Exclusive CO home park years: 164 to 130
                No CO home park years:131 to 124


                My main mistake in posts over the years in which I got CO guys higher was that I did not remove pitchers in estimating their road OPS+.

                If Walker's road rates are the true indicator, he should lose 13 WAR.

                But it also looks like Walker may have been hurt from the "Coors hangover". We might want to see his splits in CO when it wasn't his home park.

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                • #83
                  Originally posted by brett View Post
                  So I added up Walker a little off, and in his favor.

                  Here are the splits for
                  career: 154 to 128
                  Exclusive CO home park years: 164 to 130
                  No CO home park years:131 to 124


                  My main mistake in posts over the years in which I got CO guys higher was that I did not remove pitchers in estimating their road OPS+.

                  If Walker's road rates are the true indicator, he should lose 13 WAR.

                  But it also looks like Walker may have been hurt from the "Coors hangover". We might want to see his splits in CO when it wasn't his home park.
                  Not sure what you mean by hangover. You mean his head was hurting from not being able to hit there?

                  Not much to go on, him in Colorado when it wasn't his home field. In 1994 it was Mile High; he went .231/.231/.385 in 13 PA. But that was before he played there, so can't be considered a hangover. In 2005 he batted .091 and slugged .091 in 12 PA .

                  I think Walker was a good hitter no matter where he played, but we shouldn't ignore what's right in front of us. Through no fault of his own, the guy played where he played and certainly benefitted from his park.

                  Career tOPS split of 120/80 and career slash split of

                  Home - .348/.431/.637
                  Road -- .278/.370/.495

                  Doesn't tell the whole picture.

                  For his entire career, his line in Coors Field .381/.462/.710. That's in 2501 PA, no small sample size.

                  It's good looking at what the league did there, and removing pitchers, with this sOPS+ process. It certainly shrinks the gap tOPS+ shows but every point difference carries more weight. He's right about where he belongs. We shouldn't be reaching to excuse what it right in front of us.

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                  • #84
                    Here's Ryno......126/101

                    If we round that NL OPS+ up to 94, his road is 102.5.

                    Sandberg(sOPS+).jpg

                    Oh here's the full excel file for both league back to 1914
                    Attached Files
                    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-05-2014, 06:30 PM.

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                    • #85
                      Cobb 1914-1928

                      Home - 164.9
                      Away -- 171.1

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                      • #86
                        Interesting. Cobb's 171 road OPS+ is the exact same as his SAeff+

                        Code:
                                                     (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                                        
                                        RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
                        Code:
                        Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
                        TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
                        Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
                        Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
                        BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
                        Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
                        Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
                        McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
                        MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
                        JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
                        Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
                        MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
                        LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
                        Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
                        Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
                        ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
                        WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
                        Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
                        BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
                        FThomas          .555         .745         .545            1.36         99      
                        Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55            99             1.56
                        Kiner            .548         .731         .496            1.47           102
                        Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40            95             1.47
                        HWilson          .545         .758         .519            1.46            99             1.47
                        Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33           100             1.33
                        FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50           101             1.48                    
                        Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32            99             1.33          
                        Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50           100             1.50
                        Stargell         .529         .705         .469            1.50
                        Schmidt          .527         .678         .470            1.44          102
                        Garciaparra      .521         .715         .551            1.29
                        Heilmann         .520         .741         .483            1.53            98
                        Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
                        EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36            96             1.41           
                        Medwick          .505         .712         .483            1.47           103             1.43                             
                        
                        SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53           101             1.51
                        Gehrig's road OPS+ almost matches his 191 SAeff+

                        Again, if we round his league OPS+ up to 94 (should we do that?), his road OPS+ goes up to 190.5. Round that up as well, and he too, is dead even with his SAeff+.

                        Gehrig(sOPS+).jpg
                        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-19-2014, 03:58 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          Interesting. Cobb's 171 road OPS+ is the exact same as his SAeff+

                          Code:
                                                       (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                                          
                                          RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
                          Code:
                          Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
                          TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
                          Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
                          Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
                          BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
                          Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
                          Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
                          McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
                          MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
                          JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
                          Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
                          MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
                          LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
                          Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
                          Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
                          ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
                          WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
                          Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
                          BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
                          Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55
                          Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40
                          Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33
                          FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50   
                          Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32      
                          Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50
                          Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
                          EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36
                          SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53
                          RHenderson       .419         .539         .522            1.03
                          Gehrig's road OPS+ almost matches his 191 SAeff+

                          [ATTACH]138477[/ATTACH]
                          It is a mathematical coincidence, and I know this because OPS+ is actually a sum of two relative rates, while slugging efficiency plus ends up being the product of two rates. But while it is the product of two rates, it does happen to be very very close to relative slugging plus batting average, but basically that is why I told you earlier that SEff+ might correlate to batting value better than OPS+. Maybe you could ask Ubi to run a correlation of TB/out to runs.
                          Last edited by brett; 05-06-2014, 05:59 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Yeah figured that, just weird.

                            Before I sort that SAeff+ list by SAeff+, is there a final step we could do?

                            Whether it involves a players road only OPS+ or something else? I think this sOPS+ process would be much better than tOPS for the 5/3 chart.

                            I'd like to keep this slugging oriented and it's already adjusted to park. What about SAeff+ * road SA. Gehrig's 1.91 (191) would be * by .644 to get 1.23 (123?)

                            Williams' 1.76 would be * by .615 to get 108.

                            Walker's 1.33 would be * by .495 to get 0.658

                            Foxx's 1.63 would be * by .561 to get 0.914

                            A way to incorporate what they actually did on the road.

                            Or do you think this sOPS+ thing shoudl be included, and doesn't compromise the slugging aspect of the stat?

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                              Yeah figured that, just weird.

                              Before I sort that SAeff+ list by SAeff+, is there a final step we could do?

                              Whether it involves a players road only OPS+ or something else? I think this sOPS+ process would be much better than tOPS for the 5/3 chart.

                              I'd like to keep this slugging oriented and it's already adjusted to park. What about SAeff+ * road SA. Gehrig's 1.91 (191) would be * by .644 to get 1.23 (123?)

                              Williams' 1.76 would be * by .615 to get 108.

                              Walker's 1.33 would be * by .495 to get 0.658

                              Foxx's 1.63 would be * by .561 to get 0.914

                              A way to incorporate what they actually did on the road.

                              Or do you think this sOPS+ thing shoudl be included, and doesn't compromise the slugging aspect of the stat?

                              Not sure, but I definitely thing that road s-OPS+ should be included. Personally, I would pick some proportion to use road s-OPS+ and some to use overall. Say 2/3 road s-OPS+ plus 1/3 total OPS+. You could even use 7/8 and 1/8 because 7 out of 8 parks were not your "home" park for most of history. People will be upset that they think that certain players had an ability to adapt to their park though.

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                              • #90
                                Mays(sOPS+).jpg
                                ------------------------------------------
                                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-06-2014, 06:59 PM.

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