Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Not sure, but I definitely thing that road s-OPS+ should be included.

Should be included in the SAeff+ stat, or just replace the tOPS+ in the 5/3?

Personally, I would pick some proportion to use road s-OPS+ and some to use overall. Say 2/3 road s-OPS+ plus 1/3 total OPS+. You could even use 7/8 and 1/8 because 7 out of 8 parks were not your "home" park for most of history. People will be upset that they think that certain players had an ability to adapt to their park though.

So a random spin of the wheel and "that" player could "adapt" to any given park? Nah. Some landed in a perfect situation and if they were able to change their approach and have more success, more power to them. But the fact is, they were afforded the option to adapt when others were forced to deal with harsh conditions. No amount of adapting would benefit them.

If we are attempting to level the playing field for all; across eras, and in various ballparks, how they performed in various settings is far more important than how they performed in a single one. Not directing that at you, just spouting my opinion.

Anyway, I like the idea of doing the 7/8, 1/8 thing but how do I do that?

[brett]

multiply road s-OPS+ by (7/8) and home by (1/8) and add them together.

[brett]

A ran Todd Helton and he comes out at 124 road and 142 home. Again my earlier estimates in which I forgot to remove pitchers had him better at home by a little. My math was right but my info was incomplete.

And Helton with a 124 road OPS+ split is not a hall of famer. And Helton did a pretty good job of drawing more walks on the road. The simple fact is that if you get a good share of your value from home runs, then boosting EVERYONE's home runs will still give you a greater marginal value, because HRs already make up a bigger share of your value. If the slugger goes from 30 to 36 and the average guy goes from 12 to 14, the slugger is getting a bigger relative share of his total value in a boost.

Tulo is at 120 road 127 home, so he has the closest thing to normal split there.

And because other guys didn't walk much (castilla, Galarraga, Cargo) I think they would have even worse splits.

On balance, Colorado helps good power hitters because it increases home runs by about twice as much as it increases hits.

Oh and I forgot. CO guys get hurt a little because they don't get to hit in CO on the road, but I don't know exactly how to fix it and it is about 1% or 1 point of road s-OPS+

[Sultan_1895-1948]

multiply road s-OPS+ by (7/8) and home by (1/8) and add them together.

So 87.5 and 12.5?

Before I would do that, I'd want to get a yay or nay from you, Ubi, Leewiley, SBC, and whoever else. I don't wanna be some renegade fitting this stat to my opinions. Ultimate legitimacy is the goal.

Oops. I mean .875 and .125

[SHOELESSJOE3]

A ran Todd Helton and he comes out at 124 road and 142 home. Again my earlier estimates in which I forgot to remove pitchers had him better at home by a little. My math was right but my info was incomplete.

And Helton with a 124 road OPS+ split is not a hall of famer. And Helton did a pretty good job of drawing more walks on the road. The simple fact is that if you get a good share of your value from home runs, then boosting EVERYONE's home runs will still give you a greater marginal value, because HRs already make up a bigger share of your value. If the slugger goes from 30 to 36 and the average guy goes from 12 to 14, the slugger is getting a bigger relative share of his total value in a boost.

Tulo is at 120 road 127 home, so he has the closest thing to normal split there.

And because other guys didn't walk much (castilla, Galarraga, Cargo) I think they would have even worse splits.

On balance, Colorado helps good power hitters because it increases home runs by about twice as much as it increases hits.

Oh and I forgot. CO guys get hurt a little because they don't get to hit in CO on the road, but I don't know exactly how to fix it and it is about 1% or 1 point of road s-OPS+

CO players get to hit there in a far greater number of Pa or at bats as any hitter does, just about half of career at bats are in that friendly park.
Why is this made so complicated, how some hitters benefit from playing in great hitters parks.

This is so simple, drop how those hitters compare to the league, OPS+ and some other stats.
Just look at it this way, based on hitters individual stats.
If the hitter played in another park, if half his career at bats were in a less friendly park, would his career numbers be as high.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Trying to take everything into consideration Joe.

Brett knows his stuff and has been a great guide along the way.

Having said that, I don't think we should be considering it a "hinderance" that the CO guys didn't GET TO HIT THERE on the road. They GOT TO HIT THERE in half their games.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Trying to take everything into consideration Joe.

Brett knows his stuff and has been a great guide along the way.

Having said that, I don't think we should be considering it a "hinderance" that the CO guys didn't GET TO HIT THERE on the road. They GOT TO HIT THERE in half their games.

Well aware of that Randy, Brett knows his stuff, that doesn't mean his way is the only way. It's certainly considered, he makes some points, there are other ways to look at it.

Thats my whole point be it CO or Fenway, half of their career at bats come in their friendly park. Hitters in tougher home parks accumulate half of their career at bats in their home park. Who benefits more here in career stats.
Let me try it again, you don't think it's a great advantage, a boost to career stats, if "half" your career at bats are in your friendly hitter park.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Well aware of that Randy, Brett knows his stuff, that doesn't mean his way is the only way. It's certainly considered, he makes some points, there are other ways to look at it.

Thats my whole point be it CO or Fenway, half of their career at bats come in their friendly park. Hitters in tougher home parks accumulate half of their career at bats in their home park. Who benefits more here in career stats.
Let me try it again, you don't think it's a great advantage, a boost to career stats, if "half" your career at bats are in your friendly hitter park.

It's certainly an advantage, and we're trying to incorporate that.

My view is similar to yours, I'm trying to get used to the "league avg" way of thinking. That's how the stat world views things. Looking at how the league as a whole performs in a certain park, compared to how an individual performed there. That individual hit there in 81 games. Every other road player didn't, but as a whole, they did. Weird, I know.

[layson27]

Anyway, I like the idea of doing the 7/8, 1/8 thing but how do I do that?

Talk about coincidences.
I always wanted to do a "park neutral" OPS+ by using the 7/8 road & 1/8 home split and finally did so today. Was going to post in the history thread but also thought about posting it here. When I saw this thread I knew I should post my results here.
Anyways, here is what I came up with for some great historical hitters. Coincidentally, most have already been referenced to in this thread.

In chronological order & compared to actual OPS+:

 Park neutral OPS+   Actual    Diff.


Pujols         164     165     -1

Piazza         150     143     +7

L.Walker       123     141     -18

F. Thomas      147     156     -9

Bonds(to '98)  163     164     -1

Aaron          154     155     -1

Mays           154     156     -2

Mantle         168     172     -4

T. Williams    184     190     -6

DiMaggio       162     155     +7

Foxx           150     163     -13

Gehrig         183     179     +4

Hornsby        173     175     -2

Ruth           203     206     -3

Formula: Pt.1 (road slugging% x 7) + (home slugging%) / 8, adjusted to league & park using BBref lge averages.
Pt. 2 (road OBP x 7) + (home OBP) / 8, adjusted to league & park using BBref lge averages.

Tool: Simple War calculator at http://wahoosonfirst.com/war-calcula...s/version-2-1/

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Nice work Layson

So look at the chart in post 86.

These park neutral OPS+ numbers are something we can add to SAeff+?

[layson27]

Nice work Layson

So look at the chart in post 86.

These park neutral OPS+ numbers are something we can add to SAeff+?

I don't have a handle on the meaning of SAeff+ yet, so I can't answer that. I do like slugging as an important measure of hitting.

I think "park neutral" OPS+ accounts for park effects quite well. Piazza & DiMaggio move up as expected, Mays & Aaron are closer than ever, & the gap between Gehrig and Williams shrinks.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I don't have a handle on the meaning of SAeff+ yet, so I can't answer that. I do like slugging as an important measure of hitting.

I think "park neutral" OPS+ accounts for park effects quite well. Piazza & DiMaggio move up as expected, Mays & Aaron are closer than ever, & the gap between Gehrig and Williams shrinks.

Mays and Aaron both slightly regressed based on your numbers. Looks about dead on. Mays' PF was 100 and Aaron's 99.

The one that surprised me was Frank Thomas.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Yup, Williams and Gehrig moving in different direction, a 10 point swing, bringing Lou within 1 point.

Their slugging efficiency is pretty even .923 to .922. Gehrig takes a slight hit when each of their league's SAeff is taken into account (.487/.494), creating a three point relative SAeff diff (1.89/1.86). But then once park factors (107/97) are added into the mix, Lou makes a comeback and then some, leading 1.91 to 1.76 in SAeff+.

That's factoring in park factors but not necessarily what they actually did, home compared to road.

That's why I'd like finish the stat off by doing one of two things:

Either factor in their road OPS+ somehow

Or simply look at the difference between home/road SA.

Williams was 37 points (.037) in favor of home .652/.615.

Gehrig was 24 points (.024) in favor of away .620/.644.

If there's an expected home performance boost of 4%, that would mean Williams was "expected" to get .639 (please check the math on that). So he went over that by 13 points.

With Gehrig, an expected 4% home edge from his road .644, would result in .6697 (bbref would round up to .670) (please check the math on that).

Are those the numbers we should be using?

Ok, I've confused myself. Sending up the bat signal.

[layson27]

Yeah, it's starting to get a little confusing. Maybe brett (or someone else) can help.

Another option is using raw OPS (or slugging) difference vs league. I found this chart:
http://www.waswatching.com/archives/Top25OPSvsLge.jpg


Btw, it takes every point of Williams OBP advantage to nudge him by Gehrig. Both Gehrig & Ruth (of course) have a clear park neutral slugging advantage over Williams.

Notice how close DiMaggio's PN 162 OPS+ is to Pujols. With his three missed prime years DiMaggio is basically competing against Albert's age 28,29, & 30 seasons with his age 34,35, & 36 seasons. Granted two of those years were great seasons for DiMag but his age 36 season was of course his last year.

Also FWIW, I found that DiMaggio's & Mantle's road OPS+ were a single point apart (165 vs 166). Using the park neutral formula gives Mantle a six point edge however.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Yeah, it's starting to get a little confusing. Maybe brett (or someone else) can help.

Another option is using raw OPS (or slugging) difference vs league. I found this chart:
http://www.waswatching.com/archives/Top25OPSvsLge.jpg


Btw, it takes every point of Williams OBP advantage to nudge him by Gehrig. Both Gehrig & Ruth (of course) have a clear park neutral slugging advantage over Williams.

Notice how close DiMaggio's PN 162 OPS+ is to Pujols. With his three missed prime years DiMaggio is basically competing against Albert's age 28,29, & 30 seasons with his age 34,35, & 36 seasons. Granted two of those years were great seasons for DiMag but his age 36 season was of course his last year.

Also FWIW, I found that DiMaggio's & Mantle's road OPS+ were a single point apart (165 vs 166). Using the park neutral formula gives Mantle a six point edge however.

Nice find, but what is the "LEAGUE" number in that chart you found? It certainly isn't SA. What is it? Raw OPS?

To finish off the SAeff stat, I'm more interested in just slugging, not including OPB. If we introduce OBP, it might screw things up.